Giro d'Italia / Tour de France

[Toon Wolf]

Sorry Paddy you asked me a couple of questions and I came back with I thought reasonable answers.

As Wombat says, Froome's progression is way out from that you would expect from his previous pedigree and the improvement at this stage of his career is on a different curve from anyone else in cycling (and sport in general for that matter) and therefore following on from what has previously happened in cycling he should be under intense scrutiny. You may well be right (unfortunately your side of the argument can never prove 100% that you are right, whilst mine can if he ever failed a drugs test), it could be possible that he is a freak (for want of a better word) and along with hard work and training he has made this improvement but history is against that.

You mention Bolt beating Johnson's time, well to me Bolt is a freak, he was running 21.7 for the 200m and 48 secs for 400m at 15 years of age, so unless the Jamaican Athletics had him on rocket fuel at the time, the times he is producing now as mad as they are, are a natural progression.

I tend to agree. Given the history of cycling in recent times it isn't surprising that someone who basically comes from nowhere a few years ago to being head and shoulders above the rest of the competition now is coming into question. It goes with the territory I'm afraid. I hope he's clean, but if I'm honest, it wouldn't surprise me one little bit if he was a cheating little drug fraud.

It's the same with athletics- Yohann Blake comes from nowhere to seriously challenge the best in the world, multiple Jamaicans have tested positive in recent weeks and suddenly he pulls out of the World Championships. I may be putting 2 + 2 together and making 5, but my cynicism due to recent events calls it suspicious.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It isn't actually that much of a difference

He finished 84th in his first tour riding for a shit team (it was either Canonica or Barloworld I can't remember which. That is better than Big Mig's first successful finish listed above. He then didn't race the tour until he joined Sky, when he got that second last year. His first Giro (the year after that 84th finish in France) he finished 34th - a decent improvement but not stellar stuff. The next year he only raced the Giro and as you have said, was DQ'd for holing onto a motorcycle on the Mortorilo. What you didn't mention was the fact that he had had a fall and his knee was buggered and he was taking a lift to the end of the stage to retire.

Then we come to his Sky career. First year he wasn't on the Grand Tour squads and was in their development scene. He then had his first good finish in the Vuelta 2011, and you know the rest.

There really isn't anything extraordinary here. Yes the times are good and yes they are up there with Armstrong. Being close to Armstrong doesn't automatically equal cheat, but I understand your position and that it is shared by many people. Thanks for that legacy Lance you fucking wanker.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Toon - I wondered what you would think about Blake's mysterious hamstring injury. These thoughts and suspicions about athletics are going to follow the sport around in exactly the same way as they have plagued cycling because of the actions of many many cyclists previously.

Both sports are going to be blighted by suspicion I fear.

 

[Wombat del combate]

Playing devil's advocate here Paddy but your statement plays into the hands of people who doubt Froome:

First TdF (2008, Barloworld): 84th (@2h 22' 33")
Second TdF (2012, Sky): 2nd (@3' 21")
- So, an improvement of nearly two hours twenty minutes in four years (granted, they cannot be compared due to the routes but, broadly speaking, that is 'rather good' no?).

First GdI (2009, Barloworld): 34th (@1h 15' 21")
Second GdI (2010, Sky(?)): DQ/Wdn

First Vuelta (2011, Sky): 2nd (@13")

That all stacks up to some phenomenal improvement: Between 2008 and 2011 an improvement from also-ran to missing out on a win by a gnat's cock. I know the TdF, GdI and Vuelta cannot be directly compared in terms of race style but the winners do record similar time: 2008-2009 sees an improvement of an hour, then it all goes quiet for a couple of years, then another improvement of another hour+ to where we find ourselves now, Or, perhaps more saliently, from 2010 to date.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I get all that, and it is salient stuff. I also must agree with Donegal that it is impossible to prove clean status, and only possible to prove dirty status with a failed test (or in the case of Armstrong overwhelming evidence).

I think that improvement is possible in four years, but totally understand the large proportion of the viewers who have suspicions.

 

[Wombat del combate]

If you look at as numbers alone, it is 'only' a(n approximate) 2.5% improvement. That would seem possible but given the tortuous nature of these competitions is it realistic? I'm not in a position to say, and I don't want it to be so otherwise it taints (my man-love for) Wiggo, but I just don't like the po-faced arrogant wanker so in a way I do want him to fail.

 

[nimrod]

Froome absolutely is extraordinary and tbh that stance seems to be his best defence. his two mountain top stage wins were pretty astonishing performances, amongst the best i've seen. therein lies the problem because we pretty much believe that all the others you'd compare it to were drug ridden. As Pad says, that's the unfortunate legacy. You'd love to think it was as simple as watching something great, but with the history of this sport.... Sky seem to have achieved the lot in such a rush and personally i struggle a bit with what they say versus what i see. I'm sure DB said not so long ago that we will no longer see riders being capable of putting in multiple attacks on difficult mountain stages (ie without drug assistance), which was precisely what froomey did on his first stage win. Then after catching Quintana on Ventoux he looked so much stronger that I listened disbelievingly when he said afterwards he though Quintana would take the stage. froome was never not going to take that stage so why the BS?

unfortunately I think the info release is just PR. if there was anything potentially dodgy there, it wouldn't be released and of course as it relates to a post improvement period it's pretty meaningless. the only way to have explained this would have been full transparency of data, methods etc. perhaps Sky have discovered something that gives them a natural edge but in the absence of disclosing it and losing the advantage it brings this suspicion will just run and run.

 

[Donegal Wolf]

I get all that, and it is salient stuff. I also must agree with Donegal that it is impossible to prove clean status, and only possible to prove dirty status with a failed test (or in the case of Armstrong overwhelming evidence).

I think that improvement is possible in four years, but totally understand the large proportion of the viewers who have suspicions.

I agree with you there Paddy that someone can improve in 4 years, the biggest doubt to me is the age that Froome has done it, if he was 20 and improved to where he is now at 24 I could find the thing plausible, when you look at 2010 he was only good enough for the development squad for Sky at the age of 25/26.

In sport people don't suddenly start improving to go from outside the top 50 to not only be best in the world but to obliterate there rivals when they are that age. I can only think of two examples, the North African who won the men's 1500m at last years Olympics whom the rte pundit immediately after the race said the only plausible explanation for the improvement in times was due to drugs and was proved right when he was disqualified, and back in the 96 Olympics Ireland had a female swimmer named Michelle Smith who up to the end of 95 was the sort of standard where she was just glad to be at the international championships, she then disappeared and came back just before the Atlanta Olympics with a frame like an international back-rower, she won 3 golds and was accused of cheating by the Americans, (which was put down to sour grapes), I was living in Wolves at the time & remember stoutly defending (someone I had never heard off a month earlier) her when my English mates would say she must be on drugs, subsequently it came to light they were right and I was wrong.

Froome just has the same parallels to them and I have thought over the last week but cant think of an example in a "positive" manner to back up Froome's improvement.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

That was why I offered indurain but it is actually somewhat flawed to do so. Taking 1986 to his first win the timescale is about right and the age of the change is right (22 to 26 or 27 as I remember for big mig). So there I am thinking this is a really good example to challenge your hypothesis.

Sadly it is wrong 86, 87 and 88, mig was easily good enough to win but gave that up to help Delgado in those years. And then you have the suspicions about mig himself. Never proven but they are there.

All I can do is hope this is clean and try and enjoy the racing.

 

[Donegal Wolf]

I actually do hope your right, if he isn't then it could well be the final nail in the tours coffin as a serious sports event.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Well he has it in the bag after today. Great stuff from Quintana and Rodriguez which means contador isn't getting a podium after he blew up on the final climb.

 

[nimrod]

Well he has it in the bag after today. Great stuff from Quintana and Rodriguez which means contador isn't getting a podium after he blew up on the final climb.

contador's been hanging on for every climb hasn't he. I've been impressed with Rodriguez this last week. He really pushed today to get the podium. Quintana's been great and deserves his jerseys. But froome's never looked like losing it and is a comfortable winner in the end.

 

[thehistorymakers]

I tend to agree. Given the history of cycling in recent times it isn't surprising that someone who basically comes from nowhere a few years ago to being head and shoulders above the rest of the competition now is coming into question. It goes with the territory I'm afraid. I hope he's clean, but if I'm honest, it wouldn't surprise me one little bit if he was a cheating little drug fraud.

It's the same with athletics- Yohann Blake comes from nowhere to seriously challenge the best in the world, multiple Jamaicans have tested positive in recent weeks and suddenly he pulls out of the World Championships. I may be putting 2 + 2 together and making 5, but my cynicism due to recent events calls it suspicious.

How many individual grand stage wins had Chris Froome had before this years TdF?

 

[Knockout Ned]

Home in time for tomorrow's formalities, congratulations Sky and Mr. Froome.

It's been a hell of a week, already starting to think about 2014!

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

How many individual grand stage wins had Chris Froome had before this years TdF?

Two or three I think. Stage 7 of last years tdf, and then he was there or thereabouts in vuelta 2011 and 2012

 

[Jabbawolf]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23368970

Worth a read...

 

[thehistorymakers]

Thanks Paddington.

 

[Donegal Wolf]

Chris Horner leads the Vuelta after 3 stages, at 41 is oldest man ever to lead a grand tour.

 

[Knockout Ned]

There's hope for us all!

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Just checking the route and it looks a cracker. Looking forward to the stage finishing up the Angliru. Absolute bastard of a climb.