Hull game moved to the 3rd now. Hope it's not that game as looking increasingly unlikely I can go. Damn daughter's birthday, she has one every year - we don't get promoted every year!
THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD
- Thread starter Paddingtonwolf
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Hull game moved to the 3rd now. Hope it's not that game as looking increasingly unlikely I can go. Damn daughter's birthday, she has one every year - we don't get promoted every year!
Quirkafleeg
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Happy birthday Miss Trips what would you like from the Wolves clubshop before I order you a burger and fries ;-)
She's asked for an adults home shirt please
Paddingtonwolf
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Time for an update then
Title: Cardiff are now in second on 61 points, with 42 to play for. Their maximum total is 103. Minus our 72 point total, and the new magic number is 31
Promotion: Villa are in third on 60 points, so the promotion magic number is 30
Playoffs: Preston have moved to 50 points today. So the playoffs magic number is 20
We are now completely safe, as you knew from last week
None of the above takes into account teams playing each other.
Title: Cardiff are now in second on 61 points, with 42 to play for. Their maximum total is 103. Minus our 72 point total, and the new magic number is 31
Promotion: Villa are in third on 60 points, so the promotion magic number is 30
Playoffs: Preston have moved to 50 points today. So the playoffs magic number is 20
We are now completely safe, as you knew from last week
None of the above takes into account teams playing each other.
jd1981
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Villa are on 59
Paddingtonwolf
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So they are. Knock another point off that number . We are under 30 points for guaranteed promotion then. 29
jd1981
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If we pick up 19 from 14 pretty sure it’ll be fine might not even need that. Fulham would need 37 from 14, Derby would need 34 from 14 Villa 33 from 14 and Cardiff 31 from 14. Basically 2 from 5 need average more than 2 ppg and some. Plus a lot of the above still have to play each other.
fizzwolf
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If you include games against us (and obviously against one another) the remaining games our nearest (as in my bank account nearly has £1m in) rivals play against one another:
Derby 5 games
Preston 4
Bristol City 4
Villa 4
Fulham 4
Cardiff 4
Derby 5 games
Preston 4
Bristol City 4
Villa 4
Fulham 4
Cardiff 4
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101 is the current number of points required to get promoted.
Cardiff can get to 103.
Villa can get to 101.
Derby can get to 100.
Cardiff and Villa have to play each other so after that game Cardiff's points that they can get will be 103 if they win, 101 if they draw, 100 if they lose. Villa's points that they can get will be 101 if they win, 99 if they draw and 98 if they lose. The two clubs therefore can't have more than 100 points so I'd say that 101 is currently the magic number.
Cardiff can get to 103.
Villa can get to 101.
Derby can get to 100.
Cardiff and Villa have to play each other so after that game Cardiff's points that they can get will be 103 if they win, 101 if they draw, 100 if they lose. Villa's points that they can get will be 101 if they win, 99 if they draw and 98 if they lose. The two clubs therefore can't have more than 100 points so I'd say that 101 is currently the magic number.
Paddingtonwolf
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72 plus 29 is indeed 101
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Not based on any maths whatsoever and purely just plucked out of thin air, but I don't think any other side will get to 88 points this season, let alone 2 others.
I think that's a fair estimate as well. None of the chasing pack have averaged that 'magic' 2 PPG thus far which pretty much guarantees automatic promotion. All have to play each other, getting to 88 points isn't a bad tally for any of those below us in the table. Derby in 4th are 10 wins away from 88 points. It'll take some scintillating form from any of them to reach that tally and if they do, fair play to them - they'll have earned promotion.
By contrast, we need to win 5 and draw 1 of our remain 14 games to reach 88 points.
I think that's a fair estimate as well. None of the chasing pack have averaged that 'magic' 2 PPG thus far which pretty much guarantees automatic promotion. All have to play each other, getting to 88 points isn't a bad tally for any of those below us in the table. Derby in 4th are 10 wins away from 88 points. It'll take some scintillating form from any of them to reach that tally and if they do, fair play to them - they'll have earned promotion.
By contrast, we need to win 5 and draw 1 of our remain 14 games to reach 88 points.
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You did state "none of the above takes into account teams playing each other" but if you are now claiming that it did then so be it.
Paddingtonwolf
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I think that it is nothing more than happy coincidence. I just assumed that the team with the most points would get to the maximum total, which coincides with your theory at that point if you assume that they win the match between each other.
Paddingtonwolf
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I KNOW you all are desperate for an update, to give a kernel of good news after that gutting equaliser. So here goes -
TITLE
Cardiff are now on 64 points with 39 to play for. So the maximum they can achieve is 103 points. Deduct our total of 73 and the magic number is 30.
PROMOTION
Villa are in third on 60 points so the maximum they can get to is 99. Deduct our 73 points and the new magic number is 26.
PLAYOFFS
This is a little complicated to predict as Sheffield United in 7th have a game in hand, but I will do my best. As we are looking at the maximum magic number I would need to assume that Sheffield United maximised their total, which would give them a higher total than Bristol City who are actually in 6th can achieve. Therefore, I will run the magic number from Bristol City's total for now. They are on 54 points, with 39 to play for, to give a maximum total of 93. Deduct our 73 points and the magic number is 20.
In happy news, shit like Notlob and Blues can no longer catch us!
TITLE
Cardiff are now on 64 points with 39 to play for. So the maximum they can achieve is 103 points. Deduct our total of 73 and the magic number is 30.
PROMOTION
Villa are in third on 60 points so the maximum they can get to is 99. Deduct our 73 points and the new magic number is 26.
PLAYOFFS
This is a little complicated to predict as Sheffield United in 7th have a game in hand, but I will do my best. As we are looking at the maximum magic number I would need to assume that Sheffield United maximised their total, which would give them a higher total than Bristol City who are actually in 6th can achieve. Therefore, I will run the magic number from Bristol City's total for now. They are on 54 points, with 39 to play for, to give a maximum total of 93. Deduct our 73 points and the magic number is 20.
In happy news, shit like Notlob and Blues can no longer catch us!
machin05
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Thought I'd update this with the actual scores from the last few weeks, you know to take into account our WORST EVER RUN OF RESULTS IN HISTORY!!!
Even in "Random World" from now to the end of the season, we still get promoted pretty much every fricking time, usually as Champions.
Paddingtonwolf
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Just a brief update today as our loss combined with other teams winning sees very little change sadly
The magic number is still 30 for the title as Cardiff can still get to 103
The magic number for promotion is still 26 as Villa can still get to 99. Of course Cardiff so also have to play Villa, so if we are assuming a maximum for them for the title number. then Villa must get zero in that game, reducing the effective number needed to 23.
The playoffs magic number still goes off Bristol City in 6th, as Sheffield United could win their game in hand to get above them. City have 54 points and can get 36 more for a grand total maximum of 90. So the magic number for playoffs has at least reduced to 17 for that measure.
Everyone up to (but not including because of goal difference) Sheffield Wednesday can no longer catch us.
Bit of a depressing update as we all want to see those numbers dropping quickly.
One final point - only 7 teams can now make 90 points.
Bristol City have to 3ppg to make it
Sheffield United have to do 2.92 ppg (effectively 3 as they can only drop 1 point which is impossible to do)
Fulham have to do 2.58ppg
Derby have to do 2.50ppg
Villa have to do 2.25ppg
Cardiff have to do 1.92ppg
We have to do 1.42ppg
The magic number is still 30 for the title as Cardiff can still get to 103
The magic number for promotion is still 26 as Villa can still get to 99. Of course Cardiff so also have to play Villa, so if we are assuming a maximum for them for the title number. then Villa must get zero in that game, reducing the effective number needed to 23.
The playoffs magic number still goes off Bristol City in 6th, as Sheffield United could win their game in hand to get above them. City have 54 points and can get 36 more for a grand total maximum of 90. So the magic number for playoffs has at least reduced to 17 for that measure.
Everyone up to (but not including because of goal difference) Sheffield Wednesday can no longer catch us.
Bit of a depressing update as we all want to see those numbers dropping quickly.
One final point - only 7 teams can now make 90 points.
Bristol City have to 3ppg to make it
Sheffield United have to do 2.92 ppg (effectively 3 as they can only drop 1 point which is impossible to do)
Fulham have to do 2.58ppg
Derby have to do 2.50ppg
Villa have to do 2.25ppg
Cardiff have to do 1.92ppg
We have to do 1.42ppg
Paddingtonwolf
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Time for a re-visit methinks
Title
Cardiff can get to 103, so it is 27 points for the title
Promotion
Villa can get to 99 so it is 23 points for promotion
Playoffs
Sheffield United's game in hand is an irritant so we have to go with them. They can get to 88 points so it is 12 points - fuck me that seems to have fallen quickly!
Nobody below Norwich can catch us now. Fuck you Forest.
Title
Cardiff can get to 103, so it is 27 points for the title
Promotion
Villa can get to 99 so it is 23 points for promotion
Playoffs
Sheffield United's game in hand is an irritant so we have to go with them. They can get to 88 points so it is 12 points - fuck me that seems to have fallen quickly!
Nobody below Norwich can catch us now. Fuck you Forest.
Paddingtonwolf
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Hello again, my dear old friend...
Title
Cardiff are on 76 points, and can STILL get to 103. Fuck, it's like a bad smell that just won't fuck off. However, the magic number is reduced by our result, thank the maker! So it is now 24 points for the title
And now on to the good stuff
As Villa had a complete brainfade after winning their cup final things look a LOT better for the promotion magic number. Our dear friends from Aston can now reach the giddy heights of 96 points so the magic number for promotion is now 17 points. This does not take the Cardiff v Villa game into account.
So, to be be clear. Six more wins and we are GUARANTEED top flight football. And have a look at the run-in...
Playoffs
(Do we really need to do this....it's done)
Anyway - Sheffield United are on 59 points in 7th. They can reach 86. So the playoff magic number is 7 points
Teams that cannot catch us - Ipswich and below (and Mick needs a huge goal difference turnaround)
A MUCH happier update tonight!
Title
Cardiff are on 76 points, and can STILL get to 103. Fuck, it's like a bad smell that just won't fuck off. However, the magic number is reduced by our result, thank the maker! So it is now 24 points for the title
And now on to the good stuff
As Villa had a complete brainfade after winning their cup final things look a LOT better for the promotion magic number. Our dear friends from Aston can now reach the giddy heights of 96 points so the magic number for promotion is now 17 points. This does not take the Cardiff v Villa game into account.
So, to be be clear. Six more wins and we are GUARANTEED top flight football. And have a look at the run-in...
Playoffs
(Do we really need to do this....it's done)
Anyway - Sheffield United are on 59 points in 7th. They can reach 86. So the playoff magic number is 7 points
Teams that cannot catch us - Ipswich and below (and Mick needs a huge goal difference turnaround)
A MUCH happier update tonight!
