THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD

[Premier Quality]

On current form over the season, we’d match readings 106, with 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats I think...

Over the last 15 games would be 11,3,1 so we’d get 107.

The countdown is cool too though paddy, generates discussion so much appreciated

 

[Tony Towner]

I don't doubt we will go up and more than likely win the league, I do think the games we have away will mean our points total is in the 90's rather than the 100's though

 

[Premier Quality]

To finish on 99 points we’d need to win 8, draw 4 and lose 3 or win 9, draw 1 and lose 5 Would be our worst form of the season by a long way. I think either would only happen if we lost focus, which seems unlikely under Nuno...

So far we’ve played 31,won 22, drawn 5 and lost 4.

 

[Carrotdude]

I don't doubt we will go up and more than likely win the league, I do think the games we have away will mean our points total is in the 90's rather than the 100's though

Hard to say really, I mean we lost against Forest at home and almost didn’t beat QPR. I think the tough away games may suit us better as those teams will come onto us more allowing us more chances to counter.

 

[StuardoWulf]

Hard to say really, I mean we lost against Forest at home and almost didn’t beat QPR. I think the tough away games may suit us better as those teams will come onto us more allowing us more chances to counter.

I wouldnt read too much into the QPR second half we still had bags of chances and Nuno will sort the sloppiness. It's smart to conserve energy when you are winning comfortably but no need to be so sloppy.

 

[wordsleywolf]

Suspect the only vaguely relevant match outside of our own is Villa v Derby anyway, which must knock 2 points off the requirements for promotion.

 

[Tredman]

Interesting stats from @WolvesAnalytics on twitter

 

[Tredman]

And

 

[visage]

I'm likely to be bored at work, so might do a probabilistic model. Basically start now and assign a random result to every match from now on.


Do that a crazy number of times and then see what %age of times we finish top.

 

[Penk Wolf]

I'm likely to be bored at work, so might do a probabilistic model. Basically start now and assign a random result to every match from now on.


Do that a crazy number of times and then see what %age of times we finish top.

Something like this?

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

 

[visage]

Something like this?

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

Kinda, but just randomly predicting results from now until the end. Maybe just start off with each match end either 2-0,1-1 or 0-2.

 

[Stan Hullis]

I'm likely to be bored at work, so might do a probabilistic model. Basically start now and assign a random result to every match from now on.


Do that a crazy number of times and then see what %age of times we finish top.

Exactly the sort of shit Monday's were made for!

 

[jd1981]

Kinda, but just randomly predicting results from now until the end. Maybe just start off with each match end either 2-0,1-1 or 0-2.

Those predictors are ok but usually end up with ridiculously low totals to stay up and 80 points just for 6 place. Hard to predict where the shock will come.

 

[machin05]

Couldn't resist - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet..._HPti0Sid81/pubhtml?gid=157121260&single=true

Randomly generates new results every 5 minutes....

 

[nimrod]

7 wins to 92 points now. fair play if villa and/or derby make us need more but that's still a big ask from them. derby would need a minimum 10 wins from 15 now to get there (Cardiff 11 from 16). Villa could get there with 9 wins and 6 draws.

 

[machin05]

To explain; I've hidden the columns of scores for individual matches, but basically it randomly generates a goal count of between 0-3 for each team per match. It then uses that data to work out how many points you get from the match (3, 1 or 0) and then chucks all that data into the table you can see.

 

[Tom Hark]

To explain; I've hidden the columns of scores for individual matches, but basically it randomly generates a goal count of between 0-3 for each team per match. It then uses that data to work out how many points you get from the match (3, 1 or 0) and then chucks all that data into the table you can see.

Random is right! The one I looked at has us winning the league by 31 points :easy: ...... from Fulham. :yikes:

 

[Derby Wolf]

I just opened it and we'd finish on 88 points so pick up 17 more points and still finishish top. Cardiff second with 84.

Imagine the Twitter mongs if we hit a run of form like that.

 

[machin05]

Fixed the date being in American format.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Just used the predictor and this is the lowest we can finish with teams beating each other. Looks like it will change significantly after the next fixtures.