THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD

[Deutsch Wolf]

Nothing at present from any of the (sort of) chasing pack seriously indicates that you're going to need an obscene amount of points to secure either the title or the top two at this point.

The three biggish anomalies that we've experienced in relation to historical trends in recent years have been needing 40 points to stay up in the PL in 2010/11, going down in 2012/13 with 51 points (and as it turned out, being a whole four points off safety with that total) and finishing 7th on 78 points in 2014/15. History can be bucked. But you would expect at this stage to be seeing some kind of sign that it is going to take something relatively out of the ordinary.

Even 33 points from 16 games is a pretty tough ask for Derby, that's better than they've done over the opening two thirds of the season. That only gives them 90. And Derby are in my eyes the next best team after us (in the same way that Andrew Ridgeley was the next best singer in Wham! after George Michael)

 

[Tony Towner]

Not sure given the current form of Derby, Villa and Fulham that ppg across the season are that relevant, but neither are they going to win every game. It does look though that the team that finishes 3rd is going to get a higher than average points haul in the high 80's.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Fulham's next six fixtures:

Bolton (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Bristol City (A)
Wolves (H)
Derby (A)
Sheff Utd (H)

They'll be doing well to maintain current form over that stretch.

 

[Johnny75]

Fulham's next six fixtures:

Bolton (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Bristol City (A)
Wolves (H)
Derby (A)
Sheff Utd (H)

They'll be doing well to maintain current form over that stretch.

Be good if they did and the only game they lost was against us.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Not sure given the current form of Derby, Villa and Fulham that ppg across the season are that relevant, but neither are they going to win every game. It does look though that the team that finishes 3rd is going to get a higher than average points haul in the high 80's.

The average points for 3rd place finish over the last 10, 20 and 29 years have all been 83.

 

[Tony Towner]

Which is why I said I think this year it will be in the high 80's and therefore above average

 

[Langers]

Albion won the league with 81 points in 2007/08 - 79 points was all that was needed for automatic promotion that season. Which we could get by the end of February. With just the 12 games to spare.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Which is why I said I think this year it will be in the high 80's and therefore above average

It's certainly looking the way, yet three games ago Cardiff's average PPG across the remainder of the season was 83. I think Villa and Cardiff will lose a few over the next month.

 

[Carrotdude]

I enjoy the simplicity of this thread and watching the numbers come down each week, I’m looking forward to seeing us officially avoid relegation on Saturday [emoji1]

 

[b3h]

Random but I thought this thread was a game :icon_lol:

 

[Parkins left foot]

Only 6 points till the first target is ticked off & no reason not to do that over the next 2 weeks

Suspect that we will hit the 100 pt mark (whether we take the record point score is moot & somewhat irrelevant anyway) - it will be more than enough

 

[Penk Wolf]

It’s physically impossible for us to finish bottom. It may be impossible for us to be relegated, but I need to calculate a bit further.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

If we need 6 more points then (assuming the teams at the bottom play each other) then the real total is probably 4. Should be done after the next match.

 

[Penk Wolf]

If you carry on calculating it up the table you get to the stage where there is only 21 teams that can catch us due to them below them having to take points off them to catch us. Probably a mute point anyway, as we’re not going to get relegated.

 

[darlowolf64]

If you carry on calculating it up the table you get to the stage where there is only 21 teams that can catch us due to them below them having to take points off them to catch us. Probably a mute point anyway, as we’re not going to get relegated.

Are you sure? I lay awake every night in the fear of being relegated with Sunderland

 

[Paul]

Are you sure? I lay awake every night in the fear of being relegated with Sunderland

Don't you work nights ??

 

[darlowolf64]

Don't you work nights ??

Only some times...Well one week in four

 

[fizzwolf]

If Sunderland, Barnsley and Hull were able to surpass us then Bolton and Blues couldn’t hence zero points needed to avoid relegation and Hull can only reach our current tally if the first two get maximum points with Sunderland only able to get to 71 already

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Yes - we are mathematically safe now if you take teams playing each other into account down the bottom

This weeks magic numbers (once again I am NOT taking teams playing each other into account yet)

Title

Aston Villa have 59 points and can get 45 more for a total of 104 points maximum. Deduct our current total of 71 points and the magic number is 33

Promotion
Derby have 58 points and can get 45 more. Cardiff have 55 points and can get 48 more. So both can get to 103. The promotion magic number is 32

Playoffs
Preston in 7th have 49 points. They can get 45 more so a total maximum of 94 points. The playoffs magic number is 24

 

[AndyWolves]

I'm a lazy, lazy man. Is there any chance you could include our lowest possible league position that we could finish in? Ignoring teams playing each other