THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD

[Quirkafleeg]

Worked out the averages for automatic and the title since the 2004-05 season.

2nd place - 87 points
Champions - 93 points.

 

[jd1981]

Yes - we are mathematically safe now if you take teams playing each other into account down the bottom

This weeks magic numbers (once again I am NOT taking teams playing each other into account yet)

Title

Aston Villa have 59 points and can get 45 more for a total of 104 points maximum. Deduct our current total of 71 points and the magic number is 33

Promotion
Derby have 58 points and can get 45 more. Cardiff have 55 points and can get 48 more. So both can get to 103. The promotion magic number is 32

Playoffs
Preston in 7th have 49 points. They can get 45 more so a total maximum of 94 points. The playoffs magic number is 24

But realistically it’s 30 for promotion as derby and Cardiff still have to play each other.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

23rd at the moment if you ignore teams playing each other. Taking that into account it is effectively 21se

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

But realistically it’s 30 for promotion as derby and Cardiff still have to play each other.

I just said I am NOT taking that into account yet.

 

[Norman Deeley]

With the exception of "Welcome Dean Saunders" this is quite easily the silliest thread we've had. Quirk is spot on. Max of 9 points needed for play-offs, 19 max for promotion and 24 more will guarantee the title

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It is about MATHEMATICS not PROBABILITY

You don't have to read it if you don't like it.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

All stuff like this is good to read Paddy. Keep giving us the numbers and the team will keep taking those numbers off..

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Eventually Mathematics and Probability will coincide, and then we can all get pissed in celebration.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

:xmasbana:

 

[Penk Wolf]

Worked out the averages for automatic and the title since the 2004-05 season.

2nd place - 87 points
Champions - 93 points.

Surely 88 points would be for the Championship and 83 points for 2nd place?

 

[Norman Deeley]

Eventually Mathematics and Probability will coincide, and then we can all get pissed in celebration.

Paddy, it's not even about maths as you've missed out so many of the X must play Y combos. But it's harmless good fun...

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I will add them in when we get into the last ten games. For a start Fulham have a run of six consecutive fixtures against sides at the top so once that is out of the way it will be a LOT clearer! Personally, I think by the end of that six games we will have probably already got enough in the bag for the final shake up.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Just had a look, 17th is the lowest we can finish. It is a pain in the arse to work out though, as you have to take into account some playing each other, but then ignore others if they can’t catch us.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

Surely 88 points would be for the Championship and 83 points for 2nd place?

The averages were worked out by the teams finishing points for 1st and 2nd and thats how they came out, Im not brainy enough I admit hence you questioning me, but my sister did the math.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

And she just said if you take 106 Reading and 102 out for Leicester its still the same bar a gnats bollock.

 

[Norman Deeley]

Newcastle won last year with W29 D7 L10 F85 A40
Average over (I think it was) last 10 seasons has been 27-11-8 85-40

So to equal Newcastle last year we simply need to go 7-2-6 29-17 giving us 23 points from 16 games. With home games against Norwich, Burton, Birmingham, Sheff Wed, Reading and Hull to come I think we're going end up around 100 points. Order the champagne, sign Aboubakar...

 

[Penk Wolf]

The averages were worked out by the teams finishing points for 1st and 2nd and thats how they came out, Im not brainy enough I admit hence you questioning me, but my sister did the math.

No, I get that, but if the average for 2nd place is 87 then 88 would make you Champions. Same with 2nd place, the average is 82.7 for 3rd place, so 83 points would give you 2nd.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Newcastle won last year with W29 D7 L10 F85 A40
Average over (I think it was) last 10 seasons has been 27-11-8 85-40

So to equal Newcastle last year we simply need to go 7-2-6 29-17 giving us 23 points from 16 games. With home games against Norwich, Burton, Birmingham, Sheff Wed, Reading and Hull to come I think we're going end up around 100 points. Order the champagne, sign Aboubakar...

We need to average 1.93 PPG to get to 100 points, so looks very likely that will happen.

 

[Carrotdude]

It’s crazy that even the mathematical amount we would need doesn’t seem impossible 10/11 wins out of 15 games is the kind of form we’ve shown all season!

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

With the exception of "Welcome Dean Saunders" this is quite easily the silliest thread we've had. Quirk is spot on. Max of 9 points needed for play-offs, 19 max for promotion and 24 more will guarantee the title

I like this thread. I enjoy seeing the numbers come down. There's no need for any of this 'teams playing each other' bollocks either, just keep counting down the numbers until we're there. Nice and simple