THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD

[machin05]

Eek, we've just been pipped by Cardiff. We only scored 13 points between now and the end of the season. They scored 31 and finished 2 points above us.

You never know....

 

[Kenny]

and Villa get 23 and still finish behind us. Shame that

 

[visage]

Needs a bit of tweaking, but based on 10000 random simulations:

We end up as champions 83.3% of the time.
We end up promoted 96.02% of the time.
We end up in the playoffs 99.96% of the time.

Well that was a fucking nerdy waste of a day.

 

[Hereford Wolf]

I love all this stuff!

Thanks to you all - fascinating.:icon_biggrin:

 

[Norman Deeley]

Needs a bit of tweaking, but based on 10000 random simulations:

We end up as champions 83.3% of the time.
We end up promoted 96.02% of the time.
We end up in the playoffs 99.96% of the time.

Well that was a $#@!ing nerdy waste of a day.

So that makes us 1/6 to win the league? Offer those odds and you'll be crushed to death in the rush!

 

[Norman Deeley]

Current spreads from Sporting Index

Wolves 98.5-100
Villa 82-83.5
Derby 80.5-82
Cardiff 79.5-81

Fulham and BCFC also make the play-offs

At the bottom, Barnsley, Sunderland and Burton go down

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I would be going above 100 for our total if I ever placed a bet these days.

 

[visage]

So that makes us 1/6 to win the league? Offer those odds and you'll be crushed to death in the rush!

Nah. It assumes a 1 in 3 chance for winning, losing and drawing. We won't only win one in three between now and May.

 

[Parkins left foot]

Interesting to see the numbers come down even if it has no relevance to reality

Villa have had a good run, but are still 12 points back - before they started this run we were probably a similar number of points above second

All they have managed to do is to change the order below us & I'm not that fussed as to who gets automatic promotion alongside us. Highest points total would be nice, but not really needed - the Title is deserved given how we have played, but not that important in the grand scheme of things as long as we get a minimum of second. That is the only thing we need to achieve.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Could you number the teams from 1 to 24 based on current position and then weight the results in some fashion to give a higher probability of a win for say, us against Burton?

 

[Norman Deeley]

I would be going above 100 for our total if I ever placed a bet these days.

I'd agree with that. I don't think you'd go far wrong buying at 100. Guessing the spread at the beginning of the season was around 70-72, maybe even less.

 

[visage]

Could you number the teams from 1 to 24 based on current position and then weight the results in some fashion to give a higher probability of a win for say, us against Burton?

I could, probably. Though it would increasingly become self fulfilling. We're top, so we win more games, so we stay top etc.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Villa have had a good run, but are still 12 points back - before they started this run we were probably a similar number of points above second.

10 games ago Villa were 11 points behind us. There good run has done nothing really other than stopping the gap getting bigger.

 

[Parkins left foot]

10 games ago Villa were 11 points behind us. There good run has done nothing really other than stopping the gap getting bigger.

Got them above the others below us though & whatever a few deluded individuals might think that is probably more relevant for them

 

[Law's Bus]

Isn't the Magic Number for avoiding relegation still 2?

 

[Penk Wolf]

Isn't the Magic Number for avoiding relegation still 2?

Not when you take into account teams playing each other.

 

[Donegal Wolf]

10 games ago Villa were 11 points behind us. There good run has done nothing really other than stopping the gap getting bigger.

In theory, we win our next 5 matches and Villa, Derby and Cardiff lose all theirs, plus Fulham and Bristol only picking up 6 points.

We would clinch promotion with a win at Villa Park on 10th March.....

 

[Abu Wolf]

On current form we should be promoted after the Hull game on the 2nd April and be crowned Champions on our trip to see Colin on the 7th April and party time at home to Derby on the 10th April

 

[jd1981]

Really hop it doesn’t happen against Derby at home as I’ll be in mid air on my way back from Crete.

 

[Norman Deeley]

Homes games: wins vs Norwich, Reading, Burton, Hull, Blues, Owls. Draw vs Derby

Away: Win at Leeds, Bolton, Sunderland. Draw at PNE, Fulham and M/bro. Lose at Villa and Cardiff

Points - 102. Champions by 14 points