THE MAGIC NUMBER THREAD

[Paddingtonwolf]

And that is why the relegation safety number will reduce more quickly than the title number.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

The magic number is always 90.

 

[Penk Wolf]

The magic number is always 90.

83 points is the first target for me.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

 

[Peter_Knowles_Ghost]

It all still feels a bit unreal ...

 

[Deleted Cyber]

W D L POINTS
46 0 0 138
44 0 2 132
42 0 4 126
40 0 6 120
38 0 8 114
36 0 10 108
34 0 12 102
32 0 14 96
30 0 16 90
28 0 18 84
25 0 21 75
23 0 23 69
21 0 25 63
18 0 28 54
16 0 30 46
14 0 32 42
12 0 34 36
10 0 36 30
8 0 38 24
6 0 40 18
4 0 42 12
2 0 44 6
0 0 46 0

Because I had a few minutes this is a perfect table I think where every team beats every one who is below them with the exception of the three in the centre who contrive to beat each other ( as a team cant beat itself to get 23 0 23 results.) The other perfect table is for every game to be drawn hence every team ends up on 46 points. If you subtract 46 from the top 3 teams that would be the estimated minimum predicted points total needed to be in that position. That gives 2 points per game for the champions and that’s about right 92 points. 86 for second. 80 for 3rd. For relegation places its opposite. so the estimated maximum number of points ffor those finsihing it that position would be to add 46 points: So bottom would be 46, second bottom 52 third bottom 58. You would have to be really unlucky to be relegated with that many points.
So I think anything over 90 points and we are up and we already have too many points to go down.

 

[Langers]

 

[Kenny]

we already have too many points to go down.

PHEW!

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Technically we are 14 short of safety. Sunderland can still reach 79. Obviously you can then remove 3 from that total as, to reach 79 points, Sunderland would have to beat Hull, who are also on 25 points at the moment. So really it is 11 points from safety.

 

[Kenny]

Technically we are 14 short of safety. .

Day ruined

 

[MARKakaJIM]

Technically we are 14 short of safety. Sunderland can still reach 79. Obviously you can then remove 3 from that total as, to reach 79 points, Sunderland would have to beat Hull, who are also on 25 points at the moment. So really it is 11 points from safety.

Would it be 12 if they drew?

 

[nimrod]

i'm still working to 94 points for the title as it stands

for that we would need 29 points from 17 games or in W/D/L: 9/2/6 or 8/5/4 or even 7/8/2

to get to 93, Derby would need 40 points from 18 games: 13/1/4, 12/4/2 or 11/7/0

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

With the midweek fixtures including Sunderland v Blues and Leeds v Hull, the number will be set to shrink. Then of course we play late on Saturday, before which it is certain to have shrunk further, you would imagine, especially when you take into account that the total for safety shrinks by 3 points per game played (less any points gained by the third bottom position). If Blues and Sunderland draw, and Hull lose, followed by losses for all three at the weekend, the total when we play Sheffield United will effectively be 5 points from safety.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Would it be 12 if they drew?

Not necessarily, as Birmingham, Bolton and Barnsley results would become important at that point. Still a little complicated.

 

[Lycan]

FFS Paddy we need clarity!

We'll have to send out scouts to all the games to call us and give us updates on the scores coming in Dean Saunders style.

 

[YoungWolf]

Hadn't realised Derby had Millwall away tonight - tough game for them. Sheffield United v Villa as well.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Time for an update

As of today (this does not take into account chasing teams playing each other - that level of nuance can realistically be added in when we hit the last ten games)

Title.
Derby in second have 57 points. They can get 48 more points. So that is 105 total. Subtract our total of 68 and the magic number is now 38

Promotion
Cardiff can still get to 57 points from 30 games as well as they have a game in hand - so again the magic number is 38

Playoffs
The key team here is Preston in 7th. They have 48 and can get another 48 to be a maximum total of 96. So the magic number for playoffs is 28

Safety
Hull are on 26 points. They can get another 48. That gives them a maximum total of 74. So the magic number for safety is 6

 

[Law's Bus]

So we could potentially tick off the first target after the next set of games.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Yep. And i think we will.