Coronavirus

[Kenny]

Don't get me wrong, I think the Tories have massively fucked up on the whole thing.

I just don't buy that the new strain is a hoax, I'll accept being wrong if turns out to be but the massive rise in specific areas needs an explanation

The new strain isn't a hoax. There have been plenty of mutations in this virus. The one that hit Europe was a mutation on the strain that started in Wuhan for starters. It is though, a handy excuse to bury some utterly dreadful decisions made since the (semi) lockdown ended

 

[Kenny]

So this still stands even though it is Tier 4
- Surrey (excluding Waverley)

The people of Waverley are trapped!!

 

[Doctor Doog]

Don't get me wrong, I think the Tories have massively fucked up on the whole thing.

I just don't buy that the new strain is a hoax, I'll accept being wrong if turns out to be but the massive rise in specific areas needs an explanation

Despite Johnson and Whitty pushing the link between the new strain and the increase in cases in the SE, it is so far unproven. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a link, it just means more data is needed. Why would you think it’s a hoax? Equally, why would you accept it as fact? The scientific awareness of the general public really dismays me.

 

[AndyWolves]

Despite Johnson and Whitty pushing the link between the new strain and the increase in cases in the SE, it is so far unproven. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a link, it just means more data is needed. Why would you think it’s a hoax? Equally, why would you accept it as fact? The scientific awareness of the general public really dismays me.

I don't think it's a hoax. As I said, I can believe what they've said and as it's something the Chief Medical Officer has said it kind of suggests it isn't bullshit.

There is a reason for cases in London and the SE flying up way out of proportion with the rest of the UK and this is a very plausible explanation.

I find your last sentence incredibly arrogant.

 

[Johnny75]

I don't think it's a hoax. As I said, I can believe what they've said and as it's something the Chief Medical Officer has said it kind of suggests it isn't bullshit.

There is a reason for cases in London and the SE flying up way out of proportion with the rest of the UK and this is a very plausible explanation.

I find your last sentence incredibly arrogant.

You think the statement is arrogant despite proving the statement true?

Belief is for religion, we should be presented with the science not their fucking beliefs.

 

[Doctor Doog]

I don't think it's a hoax. As I said, I can believe what they've said and as it's something the Chief Medical Officer has said it kind of suggests it isn't bullshit.

There is a reason for cases in London and the SE flying up way out of proportion with the rest of the UK and this is a very plausible explanation.

I find your last sentence incredibly arrogant.

It is a plausible explanation, it just not proven. The arrogance is on the part of those who are pushing it as fact. They can do that because people don’t have the knowledge they need to question it, for whatever reason. If someone conned you out of 500 quid, you be pretty pissed off if you didn’t know enough maths to prevent it.

 

[AndyWolves]

You think the statement is arrogant despite proving the statement true?

Belief is for religion, we should be presented with the science not their fucking beliefs.

I'm confused, what have the govt presented which isn't science?

 

[Doctor Doog]

I'm confused, what have the govt presented which isn't science?

How long have you got?

 

[AndyWolves]

How long have you got?

Are we still talking about the new strain?

 

[Johnny75]

I'm confused, what have the govt presented which isn't science?

Any sort of scientific reason on why the transmission is rising.

Why is it going to rise 0.4.

This strain is 70% more transmissible. What does that even mean? Is it related to viral lode, does it stay on surfaces 70% longer so could be caught by touching any surface at any point?

It was just bullshit to baffle brains.

And there was a fair bit more unexplained.

 

[AndyWolves]

Any sort of scientific reason on why the transmission is rising.

Why is it going to rise 0.4.

This strain is 70% more transmissible. What does that even mean? Is it related to viral lode, does it stay on surfaces 70% longer so could be caught by touching any surface at any point?

It was just bullshit to baffle brains.

And there was a fair bit more unexplained.

If it was just Boris I'd agree it's bullshit but as it's from what I would consider a reputable source in Chris Whitty I give it far more credence. They've reported the new strain to the WHO so if they're lying the scientific community will call bullshit on them.

There has been a huge rise in London and the SE with little plausible explanation, that started during lockdown - why would cases just start rising during lockdown in one particular area?

I'm all for skepticism but there is enough here for me to accept this. I can't possibly understand the finer details so I'll leave that to other scientists - like I said, if I'm wrong I'll hold my hands up

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I think the thing is that even if there weren't a new strain, the Christmas nonsense was ridiculous right from the start. So it's there as cover now (may or may not be true, I would err on the side of it being true) when actually they'd messed up anyway, on numerous counts.

 

[Tredman]

It may or may not be bullshit. What is definitely true is Johnson has leapt on it as a convenient excuse for why so many more people will die.

 

[Johnny75]

I don't doubt there's a new strain but I'm pretty sure they didn't say how it was spread differently to the older strain.

There's a shed load of questions that come from that alone.

 

[Sniffer]

London and the South East were in tier 2 until Monday. It was the wrong decision to put them into tier 2 after lockdown and shows how crap tier 2 was in containing the virus. It was an economic rather than a scientific decision. There’s nothing that’s happened since Monday to say that tier 3 can’t contain the virus. It was done too late and by not closing schools the virus was going to continue to rise as that’s the age group that was spreading it. Boris/Gavlar should be holding their heads in shame.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Any sort of scientific reason on why the transmission is rising.

Why is it going to rise 0.4.

This strain is 70% more transmissible. What does that even mean? Is it related to viral lode, does it stay on surfaces 70% longer so could be caught by touching any surface at any point?

It was just bullshit to baffle brains.

And there was a fair bit more unexplained.

They explained this - it was to do with a protein that enables the virus to get into cells. Explained here

The coronavirus is mutating — does it matter?

Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven’t yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future.

www.nature.com

There isn’t enough information to prove anything, but science is about hypothesising first and then proving, changing the hypothesis as new information is presented. It might not be 70% more transmissible, it might be resistant to the vaccine, it might be more deadly....the current hypothesis will be based on existing knowledge of viruses and initial findings about this particular mutation.

They are guessing and advising on a worst case scenario. Politicians make the final call.

 

[AndyWolves]

This is the ZOE data for London, happily bumbling along until something happens mid December

 

[Kenny]

This is the ZOE data for London, happily bumbling along until something happens mid DecemberView attachment 3212

That something appeared to be in schools but you know, close them and get taken to Court.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

That graph also shows how totally ineffectual Lockdown 2 (not a Lockdown) was. Pointless, just wasted a month of everyone's life for zero gain because they allowed so many exemptions and did nothing with schools.

 

[Johnny75]

They explained this - it was to do with a protein that enables the virus to get into cells. Explained here

The coronavirus is mutating — does it matter?

Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven’t yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future.

www.nature.com

There isn’t enough information to prove anything, but science is about hypothesising first and then proving, changing the hypothesis as new information is presented. It might not be 70% more transmissible, it might be resistant to the vaccine, it might be more deadly....the current hypothesis will be based on existing knowledge of viruses and initial findings about this particular mutation.

They are guessing and advising on a worst case scenario. Politicians make the final call.

Good article but does not explain the new strain as that was discovered after the article was written.