Coronavirus

[AndyWolves]

Good article but does not explain the new strain as that was discovered after the article was written.

Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations

Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations Report written by: Andrew Rambaut1, Nick Loman2, Oliver Pybus3, Wendy Barclay4, Jeff Barrett5, Alesandro Carabelli6, Tom Connor7, Tom Peacock4, David L Robertson8, Erik...

virological.org

I don't understand most of it but there is some data in there about where they've found the new strain

 

[AndyWolves]

That something appeared to be in schools but you know, close them and get taken to Court.

Schools were open since September, along with a higher prevalence of the virus prior to lockdown. For me, that doesn't explain a sudden rise in the middle of dec

 

[Tredman]

That something appeared to be in schools but you know, close them and get taken to Court.

Conversely why are schools so much of a problem in London then, but not elsewhere?

 

[SSB]

London probably should have been Tier 3 when we came out of lockdown 2

From seeing a mate’s Facebook posts the past couple of weeks. The substantial meal thing was also a joke. One pub he was in served a bowl of stew with your pint and as long as you still had some stew in your bowl you could drink all night.

 

[AndyWolves]

This is the Midlands, no mention of the new strain and no corresponding jump. Also, lockdown looked pretty effective.

 

[Tredman]

Saw plenty of that, including ‘ironic’ scotch eggs. It just pandered to their sense of exceptionalism.

 

[Kenny]

Schools were open since September, along with a higher prevalence of the virus prior to lockdown. For me, that doesn't explain a sudden rise in the middle of dec

I may be wrong (usually the case) but didn't the testing in London increase in December? So cases could have been high but just not known, especially when the age group concerned is the the main one for positives but no symptoms.

I know next to nothing really and just get my understanding from trying to read as much as I can. Not sure if that has helped or just sent my anxiety levels to the Moon.

 

[Kenny]

This is the Midlands, no mention of the new strain and no corresponding jump. Also, lockdown looked pretty effective.

View attachment 3215

If the new strain is in Scotland then it will be in the Midlands surely. Doubt it popped on a train from Euston and stayed on until Edinburgh

 

[sycophantia]

Think the experience of the last 9 months show that the only lockdown worthwhile is in line with the first one if not more draconian, its my worry that its already too late for that, that we've lost control of it and the next 3 months are going to be worse than anything we've seen so far.

 

[Johnny75]

Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations

Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations Report written by: Andrew Rambaut1, Nick Loman2, Oliver Pybus3, Wendy Barclay4, Jeff Barrett5, Alesandro Carabelli6, Tom Connor7, Tom Peacock4, David L Robertson8, Erik...

virological.org

I don't understand most of it but there is some data in there about where they've found the new strain

It is a very good article and identifies several new strains of which the fast transmission strain has seen to be identified but many virologists has no opinion on the effect it has on humans.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

We're resigned to a rubbish January and February for sure, who knows beyond that, depends on the vaccines (not the shit band).

I'd be absolutely gone mentally if I didn't have Mrs DW, honestly.

 

[Tredman]

I may be wrong (usually the case) but didn't the testing in London increase in December? So cases could have been high but just not known, especially when the age group concerned is the the main one for positives but no symptoms.

I know next to nothing really and just get my understanding from trying to read as much as I can. Not sure if that has helped or just sent my anxiety levels to the Moon.

Positivitety has increased too though - more tests yes, but a higher % of those tests are positive.

 

[AndyWolves]

If the new strain is in Scotland then it will be in the Midlands surely. Doubt it popped on a train from Euston and stayed on until Edinburgh

It may well be in the Midlands but not in any significant amount according to the paper

"As of 15th December, there are 1623 genomes in the B.1.1.7 lineage. Of these 519 were sampled in Greater London, 555 in Kent, 545 in other regions of the UK including both Scotland and Wales, and 4 in other countries."

2/3 of the occurences have been London / SE and the rest scattered over other regions. That would suggest it's a matter of time before other regions are affected to the same level

 

[Kenny]

Positivitety has increased too though - more tests yes, but a higher % of those tests are positive.

So new strain or Youngwolf and his pals have lost control .

After the issues in my wife's workplace last week its easy to see how far and how quickly this can spread from a single person. Luckily in that situation it seems the 1 idiot didn't pass it it on to others.

 

[AndyWolves]

We're resigned to a rubbish January and February for sure, who knows beyond that, depends on the vaccines (not the shit band).

I'd be absolutely gone mentally if I didn't have Mrs DW, honestly.

I think so too, the good news is we're ramping up to 200k per day of the Pfizer during Xmas week.

Oxford to be approved before the end of the year and I think we've already got 4m ready to go.

The Pfizer study showed it's vaccine gave protection against Covid infection after 10 days, not everyone but infection rates massively dropped off.

I'm hopeful we'll start seeing the effects of vaccinations before the end of Feb

 

[Kenny]

I'm hopeful we'll start seeing the effects of vaccinations before the end of Feb

Boris needs them working by the beginning of Feb. He has promised his own MP's shit will be getting sorted by then so he can stop tiers and lockdowns.

 

[AndyWolves]

Boris needs them working by the beginning of Feb. He has promised his own MP's shit will be getting sorted by then so he can stop tiers and lockdowns.

Sorry, what I meant was in terms of numbers (admissions etc). The vaccines look to provide decent protection after about 10 days but I don't think we'll have enough folk vaccinated by the 2nd-3rd week in Jan to have much of an effect.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Good article but does not explain the new strain as that was discovered after the article was written.

It doesn’t need to explain the new strain, most of the science around a virus starts off with what you know. There are plenty of other viruses and they aren’t all completely unique, take what you know and assume the new mutation will have some, many or all features of what you already know and work from there.

They don’t know for sure that it is 70% more transmissable, but they can see from the numbers that something is happening that was not expected and the new mutation is the ”sore thumb” that stands out. They have good information about people’s movements, data from testing and comparisons from countries around the world so can rule out some factors based on existing knowledge.

It is informed guesswork at the moment but if it is the case that it raises the R rate by 70% it drives a coach and horses through every previous measure - they have said for a while that other than a complete lockdown anything else will see the R rate rise - reduced indoor mixing during the summer, along with increasing compliance with social distancing and other behavioural changes had a mitigating impact....but there is already little room for manoeuvre so if this mutation spreads throughout the rest of the country the only measure we have until the vaccine is effective is lockdown, shielding and school closures. Keeping people apart will be the only defence.

Next review of the tiers in 30 January, most of the country will be put in Tier 4.

 

[Kenny]

Sorry, what I meant was in terms of numbers (admissions etc). The vaccines look to provide decent protection after about 10 days but I don't think we'll have enough folk vaccinated by the 2nd-3rd week in Jan to have much of an effect.

Yeah I know you were looking at things in a manner that will probably reflect how it will work rather than saying something to try and keep people happy

 

[Tredman]

Sorry, what I meant was in terms of numbers (admissions etc). The vaccines look to provide decent protection after about 10 days but I don't think we'll have enough folk vaccinated by the 2nd-3rd week in Jan to have much of an effect.

10 days after the second dose though? So over 4 weeks after the first jab.