Coronavirus

[EdgeOfTheAlps]

I'm staggered by the BAME data.

I've seen several reports of different studies that have shown that low vitamin D levels may contribute to how well you're able to fight and recover from Covid-19 - or not. That it is affecting those with a vitamin D efficiency more severely. There may be social-economic factor also but the fact that BAME deaths are so much higher, both in the UK and the US afaik, adds strength to the Vitamin D studies.

 

[AndyWolves]

The infection fatality rate is probably less than 1%, nearer 0.5% from the various studies done around the world.

Deaths aren't declining much now and infection rates don't seem to be dropping after the testing got ramped up. My perception is that more and more people are going back to the old ways of living and even more so will be on Monday.

The experts seem to think a widely available vaccine is 12-18 months away but time will tell.

All things considered, we seem to be going back to the virus being allowed to propagate through society so I can only see the death count going up and not down.

My back of fat packet calculations reckoned 200-250k deaths would result before we got herd immunity. We're over a quarter of the way there with the signs are we'll have lots more when lockdown starts to be relaxed.

I think we'll end up with herd immunity before a vaccine is rolled out

 

[Papper]

Over the next month I expect to see a lot of people giving interviews to the papers when they have been fired for refusing to work due to the pandemic

An unsafe work environment (some may be impossible to meet requirements) may lead to businesses closing and employees losing their jobs. You could potentially have a business of say two hundred employees then one contracts it, the business closes for two weeks then the cycle repeats. Given the amount of new infections each day I cannot see anything but hundreds of thousands of job losses in the next few months.

 

[Pablowolf]

Yes, did mine via drive through on Tuesday. Just got the result - negative.

Read the instructions carefully and good luck ramming the swab down and up.

Yeah, I'm not looking forward to tickling by brain with the swab.

 

[Tredman]

Yeah, I'm not looking forward to tickling by brain with the swab.

It’s a swab not a wand.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

as a matter of interest, did you both take part in the government scheme thingy you were talking about ?

 

[Kenny]

So looks like Raab is going to announce the extension of the lockdown shortly and the PM will ride into action on Sunday to remove some aspects of it.

 

[SSB]

I’d say lockdown has now finished. Just got home from work and it’s very busy out there.

 

[Papper]

The problem for me is finding reliable information based on data that can be comparable across the board. I notice Fullfact is a third funded by Google/Youtube - those bastions of free speech who decide what you need to know (see the 2 Californian doctors for details). Throw in George Soros as a contributor for good measure.

 

[Papper]

Bank of England warns of worse UK economic slump since 1706. The European Commission tells it's residents to expect the deepest economic recession in it's history. US jobless claims hit 3 million, unemployment in UK expected to double.

 

[Hereford Wolf]

Not feeling sorry for myself by any means but I think unless there is a vaccine and EVERYBODY in the UK has to have it, I cannot see me attending another game because of my blood cancer and crap immune system.

Its not the end of the world and a lot of people are a lot worse off than I am....but it makes me sad.

 

[Papper]

In the US nearly 4$ Bn has been paid out due to Vaccine injury (adverse events)

https://www.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hrsa/vaccine-compensation/data/monthly-stats-aug-2018.pdf

 

[Newbridge Wolf]

Bank of England warns of worse UK economic slump since 1706. The European Commission tells it's residents to expect the deepest economic recession in it's history. US jobless claims hit 3 million, unemployment in UK expected to double.

That may be true, but the Bank of England are really good at releasing pessimistic outlooks. We know its going to be tough but they could at least offer some positivity I mean the markets are built on confidence. This sort of announcement just panics everyone.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

I’d say lockdown has now finished. Just got home from work and it’s very busy out there.

Looks similar to Easter weekend from the shops I've passed on the way home, everyone's got a bit more time on their hands and some decent weather so they've gone bonkers with the ideas of BBQs and garden work. Was going to pop in Aldi and get a few bits to see us through the weekend but can't be arsed with those queues, might pop out just before closing time and see if there's anything left to pick off the bones.

 

[AndyWolves]

Did they say on the briefing that R0 is lowest in London?

 

[BillyDee]

Did they say on the briefing that R0 is lowest in London?

They did.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

"We found that 5-19 year-olds (6.0%, 95% CI 2.3-10.2%) had similar seroprevalence to 20-49 year olds (8.5%, 95%CI 4.99-11.7), while significantly lower seroprevalence was observed among those 50 and older (3.7%, 95% CI 0.99-6.0, p=0.0008). Interpretation: Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is at least in the short-term associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from burning out simply due to herd immunity. Further, no differences in seroprevalence between children and middle age adults are observed. These results must be considered as Switzerland and the world look towards easing restrictions aimed at curbing transmission."

Repeated seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a population-based sample from Geneva, Switzerland

 

[Newbridge Wolf]

Cool

*Googles seroprevalence*

 

[AndyWolves]

They did.

That doesn't make any sense to me, the most densely populated part of the country with the lowest R0

I can't imagine that London is obeying lockdown any more or less than the rest of the country

 

[AndyWolves]

"We found that 5-19 year-olds (6.0%, 95% CI 2.3-10.2%) had similar seroprevalence to 20-49 year olds (8.5%, 95%CI 4.99-11.7), while significantly lower seroprevalence was observed among those 50 and older (3.7%, 95% CI 0.99-6.0, p=0.0008). Interpretation: Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is at least in the short-term associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from burning out simply due to herd immunity. Further, no differences in seroprevalence between children and middle age adults are observed. These results must be considered as Switzerland and the world look towards easing restrictions aimed at curbing transmission."

Repeated seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a population-based sample from Geneva, Switzerland

You left out the part where the seroprevalence increase by 3% in week one, 4% in week two. With that level of increase it doesn't take long to get to significant percentages