Coronavirus

[AndyWolves]

If you'd like to expand on why you deem those the only criteria to use for success we can continue the discussion.

I'd be particularly grateful If you could shed light on why you think obtaining a vaccine would be a measure of success of an exit from lockdown strategy?

In my befuddled mind it sounds a bit like How will we determine if Nuno's reign has been successful? When we have a new strip or when we have a bigger stadium?

I see success as not having to mitigate or suppress the virus any more.

I have no issue with 6 as a method of keeping R0 down as an alternative to lockdown. I see 6 as being a suppression method rather than an exit strategy

My point is, if herd immunity is the only realistic target, you would still require the same number of people to be infected regardless of method used.

 

[Templeton Peck]

Have you got a link to that?

We've had 356k recoveries and I don't of any who've been reinfected or seen concrete reports of people who have

The reports I've seen have either been inaccurate tests or people recovering and testing positive one day, negative the next and then positive the day after that.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-you-become-immune-sars-cov-2-180974532/

Nobody knows how long you retain immunity for.

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Thats some butterfly effect there!

ha ha Have you had your Boris letter yet up your part of the world?

 

[Kenny]

ha ha Have you had your Boris letter yet up your part of the world?

Ours arrived a couple of days ago

 

[Papper]

I agree. They should have. And it is why there was supposed to be a major overhaul of how Military Intel analysis is done, who does it and what to trust, and why there was a program established to find people who think a bit differently and see if they could predict events better than the the so called experts and Quants. Which has found them, and they can. To an extremely high degree of accuracy. You can try it at home with something as simple as weather to see if you can get it right more often that John Kettley with all his data charts and satellite images.

Every morning when you look at the window , have a guess at the percentage chance of it raining and record it somewhere, and at the end of the day, record whether it rains or not.

At the end of 6 months or ideally a year, sort all your guesses into a list in order of percentage it might rain high to low to check how accurate you are. If it rained on 40% of the days you said there was a 40% chance of raining and so on, you're very accurate and should be asking for a job as a weatherman. If it rained 20% of the days you said there was an 80% chance of rain don't give up your day job.

The fact Kelly and the inspectors said they couldn't find evidence Iraq had any WMD's and couldn't find any evidence they were trying to get them was overridden by analysis that said there was a 60-70% chance that with what was going on in the world at that time, Saddam would attempt to acquire WMDs and happily use them which was enough for George. We all know now how wrong they were.

Or just rely on the judgment of people who are qualified to make a judgment (which they didn't). Whistleblowers like Kelly (and to an extent Assange) are crucial to counter the agenda driven establishment who care not for the lives that get ruined. Truth is people began to see through the war mongering and kept them on check - until 9-11 when it became a free for all. Shame Saddam and OBL were tried in court - that would have been interesting.

 

[Papper]

I'd argue that hospital admissions and hospital capacity are the most important metrics. The result of widespread antibody testing would let you know how the population is doing as a whole but not overwhelming the nhs has to be the priority.

And let's not forgot how one acquires antibodies in the first place

Many more are likely to experience long term issues and death as a result of serious economic collapse and the near house-arrest many are under. My guess is the key workers will continue as normal and until a antibody test has been evaluated all those furloughed who do not meet the vulnerable statsistic or are not in close proximity ( ie live with a vulnerable person) will be phased back into work in a couple of weeks time. They have an increased capacity with the nightingale hospitals to say ' we've done all we can ' but the economy cannot collapse (which it will if this continues). Going forward people will be monitored and restricted like never before. Don't worry Gates will save our liberties.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

I see success as not having to mitigate or suppress the virus any more.

I have no issue with 6 as a method of keeping R0 down as an alternative to lockdown. I see 6 as being a suppression method rather than an exit strategy

My point is, if herd immunity is the only realistic target, you would still require the same number of people to be infected regardless of method used.

A strategy which has as one of it's primary goals releasing the nation from lockdown isn't a lockdown exit strategy?

The biggest thing that will prevent it's success is our current ability to perform mass antigen testing, and I think whichever way you look at it, that sits on the shoulders of someone withing government. First we were told that the delay in enabling this to be rolled out was because we had to be certain of the tests accuracy and we were trialling several different tests from several companies and only when we knew which was the most effective and its accuracy rate could be guaranteed would we buy the numbers needed. Then we went and bought just under 2 million testing kits that didn't work. We were promised that by the end of this month we would be completing 100,000 antigen tests a day, which is a massive improvement but still only 25% of what Germany has been doing.

You keep stating that 'herd immunity', and I hate that phrase, is the only realistic target.

A vaccine wont be available for at least a year, so you are still proposing we intentionally infect the whole country and let 250,000 innocent people die so that people can get back to work. I'd say no right thinking person would say that, but it's exactly the people that are. The Hitchens, Hannans and Youngs of the world who are either getting crucified by the science and economic community or refusing to speak to them. So they don't get crucified. It is bad thinking, bad science, bad everything. The people in the promoting the idea have no scientific or economic qualification for doing so , and this isn't a left/right argument because an awful lot of the economists that are doing so much to shut those idiots up are right wing thinkers.

IF, and it always gets back to that word, IF we started to develop or acquire the sofware to enable anonymous tracking now, manage, and God knows how we will, to be performing 100,000 tests a day by the end of April we could be out and about in 3 weeks with the minimum risk to the public and the least impact on the economy. over well over the 60% of the populaton ha a phone. Once you have the tracking sofware on it, and have the ability to find out whose got CV-19, isolate them, quickly, inform everyone they've been anywhere near since they were infectious so that they can get tested too and isolate them, and you go a long way to solving the immediate problem.

Without sacrificing 250,000 lives so you can get a bit of sunshine.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Or just rely on the judgment of people who are qualified to make a judgment (which they didn't). Whistleblowers like Kelly (and to an extent Assange) are crucial to counter the agenda driven establishment who care not for the lives that get ruined. Truth is people began to see through the war mongering and kept them on check - until 9-11 when it became a free for all. Shame Saddam and OBL were tried in court - that would have been interesting.

You are absolutely right, I have no argument with what you're saying at all. It was a disgrace. George had his own agenda and would have clung to anything that gave him an excuse to invade and did reject anything that didn't. We're seeing the same with Donald. 5 Presidents before him have listened to Tony Fauci, and acted on his advice, but Donald thinks he knows better. I'm not convinced Fauci is behind Americas decision to pursue a Mitigation strategy rather than a Surpression strategy as we're doing

 

[Rui_CostCo]

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-you-become-immune-sars-cov-2-180974532/

Nobody knows how long you retain immunity for.

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

Your backing your argument up with facts, do you know how ridiculous you sound? <sarcastic face>

 

[Papper]

You are absolutely right, I have no argument with what you're saying at all. It was a disgrace. George had his own agenda and would have clung to anything that gave him an excuse to invade and did reject anything that didn't. We're seeing the same with Donald. 5 Presidents before him have listened to Tony Fauci, and acted on his advice, but Donald thinks he knows better. I'm not convinced Fauci is behind Americas decision to pursue a Mitigation strategy rather than a Surpression strategy as we're doing

These people are just puppets the real power lies in the corporations. They'll do what the fuck they want with us now consumerism is failing to preserve the status quo. Anyway, we're in danger of getting way off territory here.

 

[Papper]

IF, and it always gets back to that word, IF we started to develop or acquire the sofware to enable anonymous tracking now, manage, and God knows how we will, to be performing 100,000 tests a day by the end of April we could be out and about in 3 weeks with the minimum risk to the public and the least impact on the economy. over well over the 60% of the populaton ha a phone. Once you have the tracking sofware on it, and have the ability to find out whose got CV-19, isolate them, quickly, inform everyone they've been anywhere near since they were infectious so that they can get tested too and isolate them, and you go a long way to solving the immediate problem.

Without sacrificing 250,000 lives so you can get a bit of sunshine.

The tests are pointless and basically valid only until that person is social again. I'm no statistician but I know a data set has to be complete or at least the sample has to be ecological. It would be virtually impossible to track the virus (at this stage) given the abject failure of containment in so many places. A mass harvest of medical data going back to November of all those who reported similar symptoms (mainly dry cough and fever) and deaths that may have arisen folloing on from those that reported, would be far more useful. I'm afraid they have to work on givens until a reliable antibody/gen test is available. Just keep the vulnerable isolated as best as they can and accept the shit storm is to a certain extent unmanageable if they are to avoid complete economic collapse and depression.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

back on subject - and being as it seems to centred on an either or argument, which I dont agree with anyway, I think as many different options need to be looked at the key difference between either implementing immunity or test/track eliminate is one way may lead to a loss of life, one way will lead to mass graves.

If your moral compass points towards the latter then someone needs to pray for your soul

 

[Papper]

If your moral compass points towards the latter then someone needs to pray for your soul

Mental health issues are excacerbated and domestic abuse has risen sharply. Complete economic collapse is not viable. Just my opinion but I would class myself as fairly low risk of dying, but if it means me catching it and dying by going about life as I would normally then I would accept that if it means the youngsters in this world have a future. I'll take one for the team. The next couple of months if managed badly could impact on peoples lives for the next twenty or thirty years.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

The tests are pointless and basically valid only until that person is social again. I'm no statistician but I know a data set has to be complete or at least the sample has to be ecological. It would be virtually impossible to track the virus (at this stage) given the abject failure of containment in so many places. A mass harvest of medical data going back to November of all those who reported similar symptoms (mainly dry cough and fever) and deaths that may have arisen folloing on from those that reported, would be far more useful. I'm afraid they have to work on givens until a reliable antibody/gen test is available. Just keep the vulnerable isolated as best as they can and accept the shit storm is to a certain extent unmanageable if they are to avoid complete economic collapse and depression.

The arguments can be distilled down to a choice of possible loss of life or mass graves.

I will accept anyone's right to expound the latter once they post a video of them, taking their entire family up to and including every grand and great grand relative into CV-19 ITU ward with no PPE on, forcing each and every one to shake hands with infectious patients and shove their fingers in their mouths until they have ensured every single living relative they have has contracted CV-19, Cos thats how you get antibodies isnt it? Once you've done that I'll accept your right to put condemn 250,000 other people to die. Don't expect anyone to do what you're not prepared to do yourself and what you are expecting 250,000 people to do is sacrifice their life so yours can be a little easier

 

[Tredman]

Per day or per week?

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Mental health issues are excacerbated and domestic abuse has risen sharply. Complete economic collapse is not viable. Just my opinion but I would class myself as fairly low risk of dying, but if it means me catching it and dying by going about life as I would normally then I would accept that if it means the youngsters in this world have a future. I'll take one for the team. The next couple of months if managed badly could impact on peoples lives for the next twenty or thirty years.

You're argument is invalid, you are stating that the only choice we have is to end lock-down now and contemn 250,000 people to death. You're wrong, it is not the only option it is just the quickest and the worst. No one of any consequence without a vested interest agrees with that opinion.
and as above, you go out and infect your entire family and we can discuss it again, until then, as far as I'm concerned, the matters closed

 

[Rui_CostCo]

ask AndyWolves how he came up with the figures,, theyre the ones he came up with, that he says are acceptable, not me

 

[AndyWolves]

A strategy which has as one of it's primary goals releasing the nation from lockdown isn't a lockdown exit strategy?

The biggest thing that will prevent it's success is our current ability to perform mass antigen testing, and I think whichever way you look at it, that sits on the shoulders of someone withing government. First we were told that the delay in enabling this to be rolled out was because we had to be certain of the tests accuracy and we were trialling several different tests from several companies and only when we knew which was the most effective and its accuracy rate could be guaranteed would we buy the numbers needed. Then we went and bought just under 2 million testing kits that didn't work. We were promised that by the end of this month we would be completing 100,000 antigen tests a day, which is a massive improvement but still only 25% of what Germany has been doing.

You keep stating that 'herd immunity', and I hate that phrase, is the only realistic target.

A vaccine wont be available for at least a year, so you are still proposing we intentionally infect the whole country and let 250,000 innocent people die so that people can get back to work. I'd say no right thinking person would say that, but it's exactly the people that are. The Hitchens, Hannans and Youngs of the world who are either getting crucified by the science and economic community or refusing to speak to them. So they don't get crucified. It is bad thinking, bad science, bad everything. The people in the promoting the idea have no scientific or economic qualification for doing so , and this isn't a left/right argument because an awful lot of the economists that are doing so much to shut those idiots up are right wing thinkers.

IF, and it always gets back to that word, IF we started to develop or acquire the sofware to enable anonymous tracking now, manage, and God knows how we will, to be performing 100,000 tests a day by the end of April we could be out and about in 3 weeks with the minimum risk to the public and the least impact on the economy. over well over the 60% of the populaton ha a phone. Once you have the tracking sofware on it, and have the ability to find out whose got CV-19, isolate them, quickly, inform everyone they've been anywhere near since they were infectious so that they can get tested too and isolate them, and you go a long way to solving the immediate problem.

Without sacrificing 250,000 lives so you can get a bit of sunshine.

Exiting lockdown is one thing, getting to a point whereby the virus isn't an issue (Vaccine or herd immunity) any more is another

Even with option 6) people will still be infected, it will just take longer. How long do we operate under 6) for? How do we exit 6 or do we do it forever? How many people die in this scenario? It's more than 20-30,000.

I'm not advocating we let 250,000 people die like it's something I want to do, I'm not sure why you think I want that to happen. I'm saying I don't see a realistic alternative. Maybe, just maybe, contact tracing with an app buys you enough time to research, develop and distribute a vaccine. The infrastructure required to make app and contact tracing work plus the take-up required from Joe public to me makes it a hard option to execute. Great in theory though. It also relies on a vaccine being developed in a reasonable timeline

The point I'm making is that if all of our population gets it 250,000 will die, I don't like it, I don't want it but I don't see a realistic alternative, maybe I'm wrong.

Herd immunity is something you achieve in one of two ways acquired immunity or via a vaccine so maybe I should say acquired immunity. Although if we're vulnerable to reinfection as some are suggesting then I have no idea how we ever end this as neither a vaccine nor acquired immunity would give us a defence.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Exiting lockdown is one thing, getting to a point whereby the virus isn't an issue (Vaccine or herd immunity) any more is another

Even with option 6) people will still be infected, it will just take longer. How long do we operate under 6) for? How do we exit 6 or do we do it forever? How many people die in this scenario? It's more than 20-30,000.

I'm not advocating we let 250,000 people die like it's something I want to do, I'm not sure why you think I want that to happen. I'm saying I don't see a realistic alternative. Maybe, just maybe, contact tracing with an app buys you enough time to research, develop and distribute a vaccine. The infrastructure required to make app and contact tracing work plus the take-up required from Joe public to me makes it a hard option to execute. Great in theory though. It also relies on a vaccine being developed in a reasonable timeline

The point I'm making is that if all of our population gets it 250,000 will die, I don't like it, I don't want it but I don't see a realistic alternative, maybe I'm wrong.

Herd immunity is something you achieve in one of two ways acquired immunity or via a vaccine so maybe I should say acquired immunity. Although if we're vulnerable to reinfection as some are suggesting then I have no idea how we ever end this as neither a vaccine nor acquired immunity would give us a defence.

It's not the only realistic option, it's just the one you're choosing. I refer the Hon Gentleman to my answer above, as far as I am concerned, the matter is closed

 

[AndyWolves]

ask AndyWolves how he came up with the figures,, theyre the ones he came up with, that he says are acceptable, not me

Two sources, a 0.4 CFR from Germany and our own govts assumed 0.5 CFR.

Then our population expressed as a percentage plus a bit of fat and assuming everyone gets it