Coronavirus

[Rui_CostCo]

Much like most of the ‘virgin’ companies Branson is very much a minority share holder of Virgin Atlantic, yes he’s a twat but it’s not particularly good to glory in people losing their jobs.

Edit - my bad, seems he didn’t actually sell the 30% to KLM as planned. Seems like you get to glory away Rui.

where did i say i wanted anyone to lose their job? Or glory in it?

Bransons organisation is structured to give him the biggest financial benefit. This is the man who ran down the street crying when he sold Virgin records for a billion pounds. Literally crying all the way to the bank. If he cares SO much about his Virgin brand and Virgin companies, he should dip into his own four thousand million instead of asking us for 250 million

 

[Keef]

So come on then Rui,fire up your statistics and tell us all what to do re the deaths,how to solve this crisis,the economy and mention virgin/Branson at some point,you know you want to,us mere mortals on here await with bated breath

 

[Rui_CostCo]

So come on then Rui,fire up your statistics and tell us all what to do re the deaths,how to solve this crisis,the economy and mention virgin/Branson at some point,you know you want to,us mere mortals on here await with bated breath

When youve bothered to read it I'll stop posting it
exit strategy options for lifting lockdown measures in uk

 

[AndyWolves]

No but there are options that independent scientist and economists are urging those in power to consider, but like you, they're just pretending they don't exist. Lowest economic effect with most lives saved is only not the best option if you don't care who or how many people die as long as its the cheapest way, which I think is an incredibly callous viewpoint and as I said, is almost always changed when the person holding it is asked to sacrifice their own family to achieve it.
exit strategy options for lifting lockdown measures in uk

I don't really understand why you're unwilling to accept or even consider Ian Mulheirn's view unless it's because he works at The Tony Blair Institute which would be a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater

I don't let my political views dictate my thinking

I see two ways out of this

1) Vaccine
2) Herd immunity achieved through infection

1) 12-18 months away at best. Requires lockdown and puts us into a huge recession which far reaching implications. The state can't keep subsidising the country for ever and at some point everything comes crashing down, poor people will be hit the hardest People will also die as we go through and I doubt our ability to enforce a lockdown for this length of time

2) Achieved via not saturating the NHS so it stays 'manageable'. Don't know the time frames and hopefully allows us to keep a semblance of an economy and doesn't write off the future for multiple generations.

We could employ any method to keep NHS demand in check including tracing techniques and apps to help.

The point I'm making is that does it really make any difference if someone contracts the virus tomorrow or in six months time? (Assuming NHS demand is managed).

I've massively over simplified but I hope you understand where I'm coming from.

 

[arklowolf]

Rui, yesterday, you were saying, that 'the lockdown could be relaxed in a couple of weeks' and that 'we are over the worst of it'.
Absolutely not imo.
The lockdown will remain in place (possibly tightened) for the next 6-8 weeks minimum.
We've not even reached the peak yet, I doubt it will peak in the next month tbh.
It's only my opinion though not based on statistics or graphs just what I see and common sense.

 

[AndyWolves]

When youve bothered to read it I'll stop posting it
exit strategy options for lifting lockdown measures in uk

Which is your preferred and why?

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Rui, yesterday, you were saying, that 'the lockdown could be relaxed in a couple of weeks' and that 'we are over the worst of it'.
Absolutely not imo.
The lockdown will remain in place (possibly tightened) for the next 6-8 weeks minimum.
We've not even reached the peak yet, I doubt it will peak in the next month tbh.
It's only my opinion though not based on statistics or graphs just what I see and common sense.

sarcasm never works well in print

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Which is your preferred and why?

The option that offers the quickest way out of the current situation, saving the most lives with the least economic impact because it's quite clearly the best option
Feel free to second guess this guys findings but I'll take a punt and say he is more qualified than any of us on here to state the best way of achieving that
About the Author

Ian Mulheirn is the Executive Director and Chief Economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute. He was previously Director of Consulting at Oxford Economics, a global economic consulting company, and Director of the Social Market Foundation, a Westminster public policy think tank specialising in economic research and policy design. Prior to that Ian was an economist at HM Treasury[

Implications of Different Coronavirus Exit Strategies

View attachment 2710

1) Lockdown until a vaccine

Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.

2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall

What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases

3) 'Adaptive triggering' - switching measures on and off when cases rise/fall

This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal

4) 'Immunity permits' for people who've had the virus

If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.

5) Weekly testing

Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months

6) Contact tracing and mass testing

App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk. For it to work we'd need high app coverage - the large majority of people - and easily-accessible testing. Currently Singapore's app appears only to have 20% take-up. Getting higher coverage shouldn't be hard if it's the only way out of lockdown

Conclusion

6 seems like best hope for exiting lockdown by summer. Combined with regional variation and continued strict rules for the most at-risk group

Suppression Exit Strategies Ian Mulheirn Executive Director and Chief Economist Tony Blair Institute For Global Change

 

[arklowolf]

sarcasm never works well in print

Ah.

 

[Aikiwolf]

When youve bothered to read it I'll stop posting it
exit strategy options for lifting lockdown measures in uk

Read it. It's an easy and light read with huge assumptions.

We only have 79% of the population with a smart mobile then add in people with civil liberty issues and people forgetting to upload infection data or people who don't have BT on by default and I'd suggest your getting close to the minimum 60% required.

Then chuck in that the Singapore experience of only 20% uptake and I'd propose it's unlikely to be a real winner.

The reality is there is only the adaptive triggering that is feasible. Maybe an app could help but I doubt it.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Read it. It's an easy and light read with huge assumptions.

We only have 79% of the population with a smart mobile then add in people with civil liberty issues and people forgetting to upload infection data or people who don't have BT on by default and I'd suggest your getting close to the minimum 60% required.

Then chuck in that the Singapore experience of only 20% uptake and I'd propose it's unlikely to be a real winner.

The reality is there is only the adaptive triggering that is feasible. Maybe an app could help but I doubt it.

About the Author

Ian Mulheirn is the Executive Director and Chief Economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute. He was previously Director of Consulting at Oxford Economics, a global economic consulting company, and Director of the Social Market Foundation, a Westminster public policy think tank specialising in economic research and policy design. Prior to that Ian was an economist at HM Treasury[

Implications of Different Coronavirus Exit Strategies

View attachment 2710

1) Lockdown until a vaccine

Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.

2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall

What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases

3) 'Adaptive triggering' - switching measures on and off when cases rise/fall

This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal

4) 'Immunity permits' for people who've had the virus

If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.

5) Weekly testing

Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months

6) Contact tracing and mass testing

App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk. For it to work we'd need high app coverage - the large majority of people - and easily-accessible testing. Currently Singapore's app appears only to have 20% take-up. Getting higher coverage shouldn't be hard if it's the only way out of lockdown

Conclusion

6 seems like best hope for exiting lockdown by summer. Combined with regional variation and continued strict rules for the most at-risk group

Suppression Exit Strategies Ian Mulheirn Executive Director and Chief Economist Tony Blair Institute For Global Change

 

[AndyWolves]

The option that offers the quickest way out of the current situation, saving the most lives with the least economic impact because it's quite clearly the best option
Feel free to second guess this guys findings but I'll take a punt and say he is more qualified than any of us on here to state the best way of achieving that
About the Author

Ian Mulheirn is the Executive Director and Chief Economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute. He was previously Director of Consulting at Oxford Economics, a global economic consulting company, and Director of the Social Market Foundation, a Westminster public policy think tank specialising in economic research and policy design. Prior to that Ian was an economist at HM Treasury[

Okay, so we do number 6

How do we determine its a success, when we have a vaccine or when we achieve herd immunity?

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Read it. It's an easy and light read with huge assumptions.

We only have 79% of the population with a smart mobile then add in people with civil liberty issues and people forgetting to upload infection data or people who don't have BT on by default and I'd suggest your getting close to the minimum 60% required.

Then chuck in that the Singapore experience of only 20% uptake and I'd propose it's unlikely to be a real winner.

The reality is there is only the adaptive triggering that is feasible. Maybe an app could help but I doubt it.

Yeah, bit of light reading from one of the worlds leading economists.

Ignore the fact that he's managed to distil a very complex set of circumstances and economic equations into a document thats easily digestable by everyone so that it can be easily understood by all

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and if you want to disagree with him and virtually every other economist and scientist who doesnt have a vested interest in any of the options available it is your right

 

[Aikiwolf]

Yeah, bit of light reading from one of the worlds leading economists.

Ignore the fact that he's managed to distil a very complex set of circumstances and economic equations into a document thats easily digestable by everyone so that it can be easily understood by all

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and if you want to disagree with him and virtually every other economist and scientist who doesnt have a vested interest in any of the options available it is your right

It's more that it is too complicated a subject to distill into a brief ppt. And too complex a discussion to be resolved in a football forum.

May I ask what experience of deploy applications and user adoption you have? That's the crux of my response. I don't think 60% uptake and accuracy is achievable in the timescales before people refuse to stay indoors. Ergo, by default we end up with Adaptive Triggering.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

It's more that it is too complicated a subject to distill into a brief ppt. And too complex a discussion to be resolved in a football forum.

May I ask what experience of deploy applications and user adoption you have? That's the crux of my response. I don't think 60% uptake and accuracy is achievable in the timescales before people refuse to stay indoors. Ergo, by default we end up with Adaptive Triggering.

me or Ian Mulherin whose opinion we are discussing and who I said i was happy to defer to because he's much smarter than me and has nothing to gain from stating them.

There are already apps out there that achieve most of what's required out of the box. Besides the app being used in Singapore everyone with a lovely iphone uses one of them. The biggest threat to the success of using that method would be nutters saying the government are using it to give you cancer or something like that.

I was a software developer for 10 years, for a number of companies, working in differing applications and have extensive experience in cyber security where issues such as deployment and user adoption frequently come into play, the latter particularly with bleeding edge cyber security tools. Is that important for some reason?

I don't notice anyone being asked what experience they've got playing in the EPL when talking about footie

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Okay, so we do number 6

How do we determine its a success, when we have a vaccine or when we achieve herd immunity?

If you'd like to expand on why you deem those the only criteria to use for success we can continue the discussion.

I'd be particularly grateful If you could shed light on why you think obtaining a vaccine would be a measure of success of an exit from lockdown strategy?

In my befuddled mind it sounds a bit like How will we determine if Nuno's reign has been successful? When we have a new strip or when we have a bigger stadium?

 

[Aikiwolf]

me or Ian Mulherin whose opinion we are discussing and who I said i was happy to defer to because he's much smarter than me and has nothing to gain from stating them.

There are already apps out there that achieve most of what's required out of the box. Besides the app being used in Singapore everyone with a lovely iphone uses one of them. The biggest threat to the success of using that method would be nutters saying the government are using it to give you cancer or something like that.

I was a software developer for 10 years, for a number of companies, working in differing applications and have extensive experience in cyber security where issues such as deployment and user adoption frequently come into play, the latter particularly with bleeding edge cyber security tools. Is that important for some reason?

I don't notice anyone being asked what experience they've got playing in the EPL when talking about footie

Only to understand why you think it's a workable solution. As it's the user piece that I think this idea falls down at.

It's a good idea on paper but because of the human element it ends up defaulting to option 3 again.

Ultimately we all want the same thing, to come out the other side of this with the least amount of deaths and the least impact to the economy (which we may have to accept are not mutually achievable results).

All we know so far is the only country that has an app deployed have seen only 20% uptake and we have no understanding of the real usage (uploading of confirmed coronavirus).

Also, no need to ask for knowledge of football, it's something we've experienced (at some pont most of us have kicked a ball) and we've all seen 100s of not 1000s of hours of football across our lives.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

I didn't say it would be easy but no matter how hard, I would say it's preferable to anything that a leading economist believes has minimal economic benefits whilst carrying a large health cost

Please remember, this current discussion in the thread stated because I responded to opinions being stated that there was no other option but to sacrifice 250,000 human lives, which I think is an extremely callous, close to disgusting opinion, that has no basis in fact.

There are clearly other options, 250,000 innocent people do not have to die, and I cannot understand how anyone can reconcile that with their conscience, particularly as I said earlier, when you offer anyone who holds that view the option of saving the whole planet by personally assassinating their entire family themselves, usually well under a hundred people they refuse to do it , and anyone that says they would is invariably lying. Either that or they really are a true sociopath

Edit The Mrs just pointed out if u2 can put an album on iTunes that got downloaded onto every apple device with an iTunes account, Mobile networks can download one onto every customers phone. 95% of homes have at least one phone. Current stats suggest 96% of the population own at least one mobile phone

 

[Rui_CostCo]

On another note, our Boris letter just arrived and Norman bite yer legs Hunter is in hospital with cv-19

 

[Kenny]

our Boris letter just arrived and Norman bite yer legs Hunter is in hospital with cv-19

Thats some butterfly effect there!