Coronavirus

[AndyWolves]

Looks like the Govt agree with you

leaked-home-office-call-reveals-uk-government-wants-economy-to-continue-running-as-we-will-all-get-covid-19-anyway/

I don't particularly like the approach but it's the only one with a realistic logical conclusion. How else do we end this?

I got my numbers wrong, I thought 27,000 would die but it's more likely to be 250,000 - 270,000 if it's a CFR of 0.4-0.5

 

[Tredman]

https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1248228331352461312?s=21

 

[arklowolf]

I don't particularly like the approach but it's the only one with a realistic logical conclusion. How else do we end this?

I got my numbers wrong, I thought 27,000 would die but it's more likely to be 250,000 - 270,000 if it's a CFR of 0.4-0.5

I realised this weeks ago.
The 'lockdown' is only to prevent the health services from collapsing.
It's just buying time until we reach 'herd immunity'.
Until there is a vaccine it's the only game in town.
I think we worked out a while ago, if 70% of the population get the virus, a percentage would die. Depending on a mortality rate it realistically means 200-250k.
Ireland I think was 45k.
No government will come out and say it blatantly.
Why would they?

 

[Templeton Peck]

Our death rate at the moment is 10%. To be fair we don't know how many people have it but at the same time actual deaths are being under reported by 80%

 

[arklowolf]

Our death rate at the moment is 10%. To be fair we don't know how many people have it but at the same time actual deaths are being under reported by 80%

Seems high. I'd think that deaths recorded as Covid are not all totally due to Covid though as well.
C-Dif, MRSA, Liverpool Pathway, other respiratory infections, flu..

 

[Templeton Peck]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ten-cases-deaths-jacinda-ardern-a9452791.html

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Our death rate at the moment is 10%. To be fair we don't know how many people have it but at the same time actual deaths are being under reported by 80%

It isn’t 10% and I don’t understand why people give it any credence. It is a percentage of those tested and in the absence of large scale testing the “death rate” is an irrelevant number, just a sad statistic that turns real grief into a statistic.

 

[Templeton Peck]

It isn’t 10% and I don’t understand why people give it any credence. It is a percentage of those tested and in the absence of large scale testing the “death rate” is an irrelevant number, just a sad statistic that turns real grief into a statistic.

Already made those points. Death rate is crucial to any discussion about herd immunity or indeed anything to do with how this is being managed.

 

[AndyWolves]

Already made those points. Death rate is crucial to any discussion about herd immunity or indeed anything to do with how this is being managed.

Death rate is the percentage of all cases which result in deaths. We don't know how many cases nor how many deaths. It won't be 10% though

 

[AndyWolves]

I realised this weeks ago.
The 'lockdown' is only to prevent the health services from collapsing.
It's just buying time until we reach 'herd immunity'.
Until there is a vaccine it's the only game in town.
I think we worked out a while ago, if 70% of the population get the virus, a percentage would die. Depending on a mortality rate it realistically means 200-250k.
Ireland I think was 45k.
No government will come out and say it blatantly.
Why would they?

Yep same, there isn't really any other alternative
Herd immunity will likely be higher than 70% given how infectious this virus is.

It was only yesterday I questioned if Germany's approach will do them any good in the long run and as soon as you realise everyone will get it my view changed, the more people who can get it without overwhelming healthcare services the better. Contact tracing and isolation will increase the time the virus is in the community

We never really stopped the herd immunity thing, no one has, we slowed how quickly we will get there so the nhs can cope

 

[Papper]

You're closer to the mark than you realise. The Iraq invasion 2 had less to do with what was/wasn't found by the inspectors than a complete and total failure of Intelligence analysts who presented a report to politicians on the likelihood, in the climate at the time, with America distracted elsewhere, of Saddam acquiring and using WMD's. It is seen as the single most spectacular and devastating failure of Military Intelligence to get it right ever.

Maybe they should have listened to Dr Kelly. After all, he was the expert and that was his remit.

 

[Papper]

Until they have evaluated and can present a reliable antibody test it's all pie in the sky. Until that time people need to be self responsible and heed the advice.

If the German antibody test is reliable then produce as much of it as possible and test the fuck out of everybody to get people back to work before it's too late. As it stands, protect those who are vulnerable and if idiots have an obsessive need to hang around supermarkets more than they should be or have house parties then it's their look-out. Keep the vulnerable as isolated as possible, get food to them etc and pour all resources into that rather than attempting to baby sit the idiots.

It's not as if people have not been made aware of the reasons why they should be social distancing but you just wonder how many of these clappers had earlier been nipping out to get non essential items for the weekend barbie and piss up or made more than one journey instead one.

 

[Papper]

I can’t be bothered to find out what it was

Not necessary anyway as I made my point in post 3912.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Seems high. I'd think that deaths recorded as Covid are not all totally due to Covid though as well.
C-Dif, MRSA, Liverpool Pathway, other respiratory infections, flu..

I don't want to get into an argument about this again, but if you've got something like a respiratory problem, but you are otherwise in good health, haven't required home help, are living without assistance, and your Dr says you can happily expect to live for many, many years to come, and then you catch CV-19 and you end up on a respirator, and dead within 21 days, how is that the respiratory problem that killed you?

That's like sacking Nuno off with us 6th in the table, re appointing Dean Saunders, getting relegated and then blaming the signing of a squad player at the start of the season for us going down. We were doing fine with Mr X in the squad under Nuno, he wasn't the best, but his presence in the matchday squad wasn't killing us but as soon as Saunders was put in the mix we didn't win for the rest of the season. Not Saunders fault, obviously, it was that fecking Mr X.

 

[arklowolf]

Woohoo it's shopping day! First time I've been beyond our lane since last Friday. Looking forward to it.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Maybe they should have listened to Dr Kelly. After all, he was the expert and that was his remit.

I agree. They should have. And it is why there was supposed to be a major overhaul of how Military Intel analysis is done, who does it and what to trust, and why there was a program established to find people who think a bit differently and see if they could predict events better than the the so called experts and Quants. Which has found them, and they can. To an extremely high degree of accuracy. You can try it at home with something as simple as weather to see if you can get it right more often that John Kettley with all his data charts and satellite images.

Every morning when you look at the window , have a guess at the percentage chance of it raining and record it somewhere, and at the end of the day, record whether it rains or not.

At the end of 6 months or ideally a year, sort all your guesses into a list in order of percentage it might rain high to low to check how accurate you are. If it rained on 40% of the days you said there was a 40% chance of raining and so on, you're very accurate and should be asking for a job as a weatherman. If it rained 20% of the days you said there was an 80% chance of rain don't give up your day job.

The fact Kelly and the inspectors said they couldn't find evidence Iraq had any WMD's and couldn't find any evidence they were trying to get them was overridden by analysis that said there was a 60-70% chance that with what was going on in the world at that time, Saddam would attempt to acquire WMDs and happily use them which was enough for George. We all know now how wrong they were.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

No doubt some div will email asking "why cor we ave the liquidator back?"

' Mr Hancock, after demanding EPL players forfeit 30% of their salary and them going away, putting their heads together and coming up with a scheme for them to contribute money voluntarily and pump it straight into the NHS where its needed most, wiil you now publicly demand that Bankers, Hedge Fund Managers, Tax Avoiders and Non Tax Payers forfeit 30% of the wealth they are sitting on to pay off the debt created by the current crisis? yours Conor Coady"

I'd like to see them answer that

 

[Templeton Peck]

Problem is with herd immunity we don't know if you're immune once you've had it. They've done tests on animals which gave them immunity for 'weeks'.

 

[Dire Wolf]

' Mr Hancock, after demanding EPL players forfeit 30% of their salary and them going away, putting their heads together and coming up with a scheme for them to contribute money voluntarily and pump it straight into the NHS where its needed most, wiil you now publicly demand that Bankers, Hedge Fund Managers, Tax Avoiders and Non Tax Payers forfeit 30% of the wealth they are sitting on to pay off the debt created by the current crisis? yours Conor Coady"

I'd like to see them answer that

Brilliant.

 

[AndyWolves]

Problem is with herd immunity we don't know if you're immune once you've had it. They've done tests on animals which gave them immunity for 'weeks'.

Have you got a link to that?

We've had 356k recoveries and I don't of any who've been reinfected or seen concrete reports of people who have

The reports I've seen have either been inaccurate tests or people recovering and testing positive one day, negative the next and then positive the day after that.