Coronavirus

[Tredman]

So the planned monday lockdown announcement is suspended but....

"However, ministers have suggested they are keen for schools to reopen after Easter if the situation does stabilise, with claims they have little impact on the spread and could help revive the crippled economy"

how does kids being at school but parents being told to stat at home help the crippled economy?

In the Netherlands they are still letting kids mix, they seem to think it spreads less between them. Sounds like bollocks to me to be honest.

 

[Del Woppio]

So the planned monday lockdown announcement is suspended but....

"However, ministers have suggested they are keen for schools to reopen after Easter if the situation does stabilise, with claims they have little impact on the spread and could help revive the crippled economy"

how does kids being at school but parents being told to stat at home help the crippled economy?

Number ten spokesman today saod

It is too early to talk about ways of easing the lockdown such as
reopening schools.


936 dead today. I'd hoped yesterday's was artificially high because of the weekend

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Our death rate today is nearly 200 higher than that of Spain. That's more than a touch alarming.

Yesterday plus today combined is more than died on the Titanic, which is still the greatest peacetime disaster in UK history outside other pandemics, the Irish potato famine and the great smog of 1952.

 

[Johnny75]

Our death rate today is nearly 200 higher than that of Spain. That's more than a touch alarming.

Yesterday plus today combined is more than died on the Titanic, which is still the greatest peacetime disaster in UK history outside other pandemics, the Irish potato famine and the great smog of 1952.

In regards to the curves we're much more like Italy than Spain which were a lot more at the same stage as us. Still worrying that we are roughly 10 days behind the pair of them.

The Black death killed between 35-40% of the population, Coronavirus is still a long way behind that thankfully.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Absolutely, but the overall death toll is still at a large scale already. That 20,000 best case is looking very challenging to match. The 7,000 modelled less than a week ago is now shown to be basically a fantasy.

 

[Sniffer]

In regards to the curves we're much more like Italy than Spain which were a lot more at the same stage as us. Still worrying that we are roughly 10 days behind the pair of them.

The Black death killed between 35-40% of the population, Coronavirus is still a long way behind that thankfully.

Ending your post on a happier note Johnny. Top work .

 

[AndyWolves]

So the planned monday lockdown announcement is suspended but....

"However, ministers have suggested they are keen for schools to reopen after Easter if the situation does stabilise, with claims they have little impact on the spread and could help revive the crippled economy"

how does kids being at school but parents being told to stat at home help the crippled economy?

Parents who are working from home can actually work and be productive, nursery nurses and teachers et al go back to work, more fuel is consumed in cars, firms that supply school dinners etc. Its not much but it all helps

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

There is absolutely no chance on earth that the schools will open after Easter. The Easter Holiday finish on Monday week, which is three days after the latest predicted peak.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Absolutely, but the overall death toll is still at a large scale already. That 20,000 best case is looking very challenging to match. The 7,000 modelled less than a week ago is now shown to be basically a fantasy.

When you consider Italy is vastly under reporting their numbers the situation is even more precarious

 

[Papper]

When you consider Italy is vastly under reporting their numbers the situation is even more precarious

Don't quite get the obsession with stats.

The only true stats are those that compare before and after lockdown in terms of hospital admissions, mortality and underying conditions. If people are quite rightly told to isolate if they have symptoms there is absolutely no way of knowing for sure whther it is the virus or something else but that information is by far more important than anything else coupled with washing hands, hygiene etc

There is no ecological merit in modelling stats unless everybody is tested and tested every day - which is virtually is impossible (coupled with the fact there is no reliable antibody test).

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Don't quite get the obsession with stats.

The only true stats are those that compare before and after lockdown in terms of hospital admissions, mortality and underying conditions. If people are quite rightly told to isolate if they have symptoms there is absolutely no way of knowing for sure whther it is the virus or something else but that information is by far more important than anything else coupled with washing hands, hygiene etc

There is no ecological merit in modelling stats unless everybody is tested and tested every day - which is virtually is impossible (coupled with the fact there is no reliable antibody test).

If, as is the case in parts of Italy the data is 160% incorrect it has an impact on any decisions taken based on our comparison with where we are and where they were at the same point in their epidemic pandemic. Unless you want to base decisions on a finger in the air and having a best guess feeling which isnt working out for any country that's done that. To criticise me alone in a series of posts from other people discussing statistics seems a little strange

 

[Papper]

It's probably not the right thread to debate it, but the original Pistols weren't actually that bad a band far better than most people give them credit for, once Steve Jones learned to play guitar. He has frequently said he didn't play a note on NMTB and its all Chris Spedding, ex Womble and that he couldn't even say what Studio it was recorded in. Spedding has always said he's lying and it's all Steve Jones. His rhythm playing is spot on and combined with Paul Cook's econometric drumming youve got the heart of a powerful driving sound. Glenn Matlock wrote great songs and Mr Lydon whilst not being Meatloaf makes up for it with passion and power. They're marmite to most people, I don't know many that think they're just OK, you either love e'm or you hate 'em..

But nonethless a lesson on how we tend to be selective on how or who offends us. How our minds get programmed eh . BBC or WH Smith - doesn't matter ' They made us a moron '.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

But nonethless a lesson on how we tend to be selective on how or who offends us. How our minds get programmed eh . BBC or WH Smith - doesn't matter ' They made us a moron '.

very true.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

FIVE more hospitals being built? up to SEVENTEEN possibly?

 

[Papper]

If, as is the case in parts of Italy the data is 160% incorrect it has an impact on any decisions taken based on our comparison with where we are and where they were at the same point in their epidemic pandemic. Unless you want to base decisions on a finger in the air and having a best guess feeling which isnt working out for any country that's done that. To criticise me alone in a series of posts from other people discussing statistics seems a little strange

Hospital admission and mortality in Italy/Spain compared before and after lockdown are the only pointers. I would be interested in how the virus spreads in close knit groups that may not have socially distanced. ie a family of six or seven under lockdown where only one or two people have had any contact with others ie essential workers.

 

[Papper]

..and predictive models using statistics are used by governments as an aide in determining (and justifying) policy all the time.

Bit like bombing Iraq because of WMD's that never existed. Depends who formulates them and for what purpose.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

But nonethless a lesson on how we tend to be selective on how or who offends us. How our minds get programmed eh . BBC or WH Smith - doesn't matter ' They made us a moron '.

Are you really relating it back to the fact that the company I worked for nearly twenty years ago refused to stock Icke's book?

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Hospital admission and mortality in Italy/Spain compared before and after lockdown are the only pointers. I would be interested in how the virus spreads in close knit groups that may not have socially distanced. ie a family of six or seven under lockdown where only one or two people have had any contact with others ie essential workers.

I just c &p'd this from 3 or 4 days ago for ease. Some of that's now changed, we're now including home and care home numbers to allow more accurate predictions and it gives an idea of curent/historic numbers in one area of Spain which being the smallest and most sparsely populated you'd think might be one of the lightest hit.

There is a Global problem with the data being used within models to predict future events. Ferguson's ' if policies are working, then we can expect....' is great, but when you've got incorrect data you get incorrect assumptions.

In Spain, where we are told it's getting better, and they just recorded their smallest increase to date, their official figures state that just under 12,000 people have died from CV-19. But in Spain's most sparsely populated area, in March they would expect to have a seasonal average of well under 100 deaths. They have reported 30 CV-19 deaths, but the total for March is 250 from a population of 90k.

Madrid's average care home deaths have tripled for the same period to 3k from 52k, a majority of which are not attributed to CV-19 as there wasn't time to test them.

You start multiplying those numbers and margins of error in calculation on a National level and then whats perceived as a problem becomes a disaster.

We don't record any home and care home deaths as being CV-19 as we don't test them. I don't know if we test everyone who dies in Hospital for CV-19 but Germany tests EVERY person they lose and no matter what underlying causes the patient had, or what the cause of death is recorded as, if they yest positive for V-19 they are added to their Coronavirus victim numbers.

Just within Soria that takes around a 33% increase up to around a 165% increase

No ones using the same criteria, so I'm not sure how you can compare effects of policies and strategies in place on a like for like for basis.

It seems no ones doing anything the same but official correlations between apples and pears are being made. Over the last 48 hours we're getting told countries have it under control who then go on to extend their lockdown, we're being told everything under control, and when looking at other countries situations we will have enough ICIU capacity and then we're told the army are being brought in to build another 5 5 Nightingales on top of the original 4 and that may rise to 17.

how big is the london Nightingal ? 4k beds? THats a lot of extra capacity needed that wasnt a couple of days ago

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Are you really relating it back to the fact that the company I worked for nearly twenty years ago refused to stock Icke's book?

Ha ha i missed that.

If your bored this 10 year old paper on why the Ickes of this world should be silenced is worth a read

The danger of conspiracy nutbars

 

[Langers]

Anyone seen Trump's latest tweet?

@realDonaldTrump
Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!

Fucking hell, he somehow manages to annoy me more every single day.

This fucking moron is going to get re-elected too isn't he?