Coronavirus

[Templeton Peck]

Implications of Different Coronavirus Exit Strategies

View attachment 2710

1) Lockdown until a vaccine

Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.

2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall

What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases

3) 'Adaptive triggering' - switching measures on and off when cases rise/fall

This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal

4) 'Immunity permits' for people who've had the virus

If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.

5) Weekly testing

Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months

6) Contact tracing and mass testing

App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk. For it to work we'd need high app coverage - the large majority of people - and easily-accessible testing. Currently Singapore's app appears only to have 20% take-up. Getting higher coverage shouldn't be hard if it's the only way out of lockdown

Conclusion

6 seems like best hope for exiting lockdown by summer. Combined with regional variation and continued strict rules for the most at-risk group

Suppression Exit Strategies Ian Mulheirn Executive Director and Chief Economist Tony Blair Institute For Global Change

About the Author

Ian Mulheirn is the Executive Director and Chief Economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute. He was previously Director of Consulting at Oxford Economics, a global economic consulting company, and Director of the Social Market Foundation, a Westminster public policy think tank specialising in economic research and policy design. Prior to that Ian was an economist at HM Treasury

6 seems like the best option. They'd need to be on their definition of those most at risk though.

 

[AndyWolves]

Anyone knows the number of new cases today?

 

[Tredman]

Anyone knows the number of new cases today?

Edit - weirdness.

Not been announced yet I think.
.

 

[ndorsetwolf]

Anyone knows the number of new cases today?

All i've seen is 758 new deaths in England, 19 in Wales. From BBC news website.

 

[Del Woppio]

The figures are worse in reality, of course:

I do very much hope that the prediction of this peaking inside the next week holds true.

Fuck me. I had no idea that there were so many out of hospital deaths attributed to covid. Tbh I thought we'd never know, especially amongst the elderly

 

[Sniffer]

As of 9am 7 April, 266,694 tests have concluded, with 14,006 tests on 6 April.

213,181 people have been tested of which 55,242 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 6 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 6,159 have sadly died.


https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/statu...-boris-johnson-spends-night-in-intensive-care

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

851 deaths being reported today in England, Scotland and Wales.

854 in total after Northern Ireland announced a further 3 deaths.

The amount of deaths is frightening. Think of all of the major disasters in the UK in your lifetime and then look at the deaths from Coronavirus over the last week.

Is this not right then?

Metro are reporting it.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-death-toll-rises-854-coronavirus-claims-6000-lives-12522065/

 

[Papper]

Why don’t you do likewise. This is really boring and adds nothing to a serious topic.

I think it actually would if some people could actually debate without being rude and taking on a ' higher than thou ' attitude.

 

[Sniffer]

The figures for deaths is different to that reported earlier.

The Department for Health and Social Care has issued its latest update on hospital coronavirus deaths in the UK. It gives the latest daily for the number of deaths is 786, taking the total number of UK hospital deaths to 6,159.

From the Guardian Live Page

We will get an official UK figure from the Department of Health and Social Care later. As Nadine White at HuffPost points out, there is normally a slight difference between the official UK total and the figure produced by the combination of the separate figures for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. That is because some of the reporting criteria differ. Yesterday the official DHSC figure for new UK deaths was 439.

 

[AndyWolves]

As of 9am 7 April, 266,694 tests have concluded, with 14,006 tests on 6 April.

213,181 people have been tested of which 55,242 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 6 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 6,159 have sadly died.


https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/statu...-boris-johnson-spends-night-in-intensive-care

3,600 positive tests today, that figure has fallen again

 

[Sniffer]

Am I correct in saying that the amount of tests have fallen from 16,000 to 14,000.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

3,600 positive tests today, that figure has fallen again

How many tested?

 

[AndyWolves]

How many tested?

The assumption i'm making is that the criteria to actually warrant a test isn't changing day-by-day.

If you got a test last week you'd be getting a test this week

 

[Del Woppio]

A crucial figure that I wish they'd report is how many hospital admissions there are. That's probably the only real metric we can use to understand the impact of the social distancing measures.

 

[AndyWolves]

A crucial figure that I wish they'd report is how many hospital admissions there are. That's probably the only real metric we can use to understand the impact of the social distancing measures.

Isn't that what the new cases figure is? People who've gone to hospital and tested positive for Covid19?

 

[Sniffer]

The assumption i'm making is that the criteria to actually warrant a test isn't changing day-by-day.

If you got a test last week you'd be getting a test this week

Would the NHS workers be included in the figures?

 

[AndyWolves]

Would the NHS workers be included in the figures?

Dunno, but provided the criteria for test qualification doesn't change I still think it can be used to look at trends even if we don't use the figure as a quantitative measure

 

[Aikiwolf]

6 seems like the best option. They'd need to be on their definition of those most at risk though.

Option 6 is likely to fail due to the human a aspect. In a climate where there are people raging about 5G causing Coronavirus and that a vaccine will cause their every movement to be tracked.

No one will believe the app isn't being used to track them and then add in those without smartphones etc. Which is roughly 11% of the population (according to an unverified website I just googled...)

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Isn't that what the new cases figure is? People who've gone to hospital and tested positive for Covid19?

Not necessarily, I mean as of Saturday Boris himself registered 1 on the positive cases and 0 on the hospital admissions.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

How many tested?

This is updated daily at 2pm from official figures released by@DHSCgovuk and @PHE_UK on Twitter and GOV.UK website

Numbers, Totals, %'s and more

The additional tabs to the main are worth looking at, for stats on bed availablity, Wording changes that affect calculations etc -