Coronavirus

[Tredman]

 

[Tredman]

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Yes, well that's the good news isn't it? The experts advising the Austrian government have decided they can start the journey back to normal.

It is encouraging for Austria that their experts are saying that, yes. Our own experts are saying we are far from being in a position to act with the same confidence and it will be some time until we are. The more countries make those kind of statements the greater the risk that it will be interpreted as a sign that the current restrictions can be ignored. All it's taken for that to already happen in this country is a bit of sunshine. If irresponsible journalists start telling their readers that this is a clear indication that we can relax our own lock down policies and parks and beaches all over the land will be heaving

 

[Tredman]

It is encouraging for Austria that their experts are saying that, yes. Our own experts are saying we are far from being in a position to act with the same confidence and it will be some time until we are. The more countries make those kind of statements the greater the risk that it will be interpreted as a sign that the current restrictions can be ignored. All it's taken for that to already happen in this country is a bit of sunshine. If irresponsible journalists start telling their readers that this is a clear indication that we can relax our own lock down policies and parks and beaches all over the land will be heaving

I don't think anyone has mentioned irresponsible journalists. Its just good to see that if we do the right thing then we will come out of it.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

I don't think anyone has mentioned irresponsible journalists. Its just good to see that if we do the right thing then we will come out of it.

You're 100% right, but it always comes back to that great big if

You don't think there are irresponsible journalists spreading irresponsible messages that will attempt to capitalise on this?

 

[arklowolf]

Some people have a false sense of their own importance.
Their actual inadequancies and shortcomings make them jealous and very bitter.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Some people have a false sense of their own importance.
Their actual inadequancies and shortcomings make them jealous and very bitter.

is that a fact or an opinion? Pavlos - you encouraged me to express a personal opinion, yet as always, if it doesn't align with some other peoples, it quickly descends into personal attacks

 

[Pablowolf]

So obviously "I don't want him to die but....." is the political version of "Now, I'm not racist but......"

I think it's best if you don't say anything because you're all coming out as really classy .

Just say you want him to die, don't beat about the bush, you can then piss on his grave which seems to be a prerequisite for any socialist (weird fascination with urinating)

Word up.

 

[Dire Wolf]

"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.

I'm sure this has already been said, but the number of deaths is certainly far higher in this country too. Deaths in hospital are the only ones showing up in the figures, how many people have died in their homes, alone and terrified? Tragedy doesn't begin to cover it.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.

I'm sure this has already been said, but the number of deaths is certainly far higher in this country too. Deaths in hospital are the only ones showing up in the figures, how many people have died in their homes, alone and terrified? Tragedy doesn't begin to cover it.

The ONS have literally just started releasing them. They look re assuring, but they are from 10 days ago, I screenshotted them on the beeb, theyre not very clear.



Stats Ending27march2020

'A total of 11,141 deaths were registered in England and Wales in the week ending March 27.
This represents an increase of 496 deaths registered, compared with the previous week and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
Of the 11,141 deaths, 539 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)". This figure equates to 4.8 per cent of all deaths.'


Oh, Michael Gove just went into self isolation

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Implications of Different Coronavirus Exit Strategies



1) Lockdown until a vaccine

Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.

2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall

What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases

3) 'Adaptive triggering' - switching measures on and off when cases rise/fall

This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal

4) 'Immunity permits' for people who've had the virus

If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.

5) Weekly testing

Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months

6) Contact tracing and mass testing

App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk. For it to work we'd need high app coverage - the large majority of people - and easily-accessible testing. Currently Singapore's app appears only to have 20% take-up. Getting higher coverage shouldn't be hard if it's the only way out of lockdown

Conclusion

6 seems like best hope for exiting lockdown by summer. Combined with regional variation and continued strict rules for the most at-risk group

Suppression Exit Strategies Ian Mulheirn Executive Director and Chief Economist Tony Blair Institute For Global Change

About the Author

Ian Mulheirn is the Executive Director and Chief Economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute. He was previously Director of Consulting at Oxford Economics, a global economic consulting company, and Director of the Social Market Foundation, a Westminster public policy think tank specialising in economic research and policy design. Prior to that Ian was an economist at HM Treasury

 

[Sniffer]

851 deaths being reported today in England, Scotland and Wales.

854 in total after Northern Ireland announced a further 3 deaths.

The amount of deaths is frightening. Think of all of the major disasters in the UK in your lifetime and then look at the deaths from Coronavirus over the last week.

 

[Paul]

851 deaths being reported today in England, Scotland and Wales.

854 in total after Northern Ireland announced a further 3 deaths.

The amount of deaths is frightening. Think of all of the major disasters in the UK in your lifetime and then look at the deaths from Coronavirus over the last week.

Like I'd said before every one of those was someones loved one

 

[Paul]

If you can't say you would pray for Jeremy Corbyn's full recovery in the same situation then that is hypocrisy of the highest magnitude. Let he who is without sin and all that

Sorry. I think you've misunderstood, I meant I wouldn't talk about him in the same manner as you all talk about Johnson, I can confirm that I wouldn't pray, as an atheist, that would be hypocritical, but I have never wished harm on another human being in my life !

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Sorry. I think you've misunderstood, I meant I wouldn't talk about him in the same manner as you all talk about Johnson, I can confirm that I wouldn't pray, as an atheist, that would be hypocritical, but I have never wished harm on another human being in my life !

My apologies Paul, and thank you for the clarification without chewing my head of, which I would have been well deserved. I will delete the post,

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

The figures are worse in reality, of course:

I do very much hope that the prediction of this peaking inside the next week holds true.

 

[Boozad]

Fucking hell.

 

[Paul]

The figures are worse in reality, of course:

Why the disparity ?

 

[Templeton Peck]

The figures are worse in reality, of course:

I do very much hope that the prediction of this peaking inside the next week holds true.

F me I'd no idea. Why the disparity?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Why the disparity ?

Deaths outside of hospital, plus those not initially attributed to Covid-19, plus delays in reporting/registering.