Coronavirus

[Tredman]

A fair question from Newton-Dunn today (not really answered). If Johnson is well enough to work then why is he taking up a valuable hospital bed, if he's not then why are they pretending he is? It can't be both.

Around 1 in 3 of people who go into hospital die, not a place you would be unless you have to I think.

 

[Paul]

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/04/...rld-from-the-outset-over-threat/?ncid=webmail

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Johnny , I'll try to go through this as best i can, I just want to make sure we are both on the same page, and you don't think that I am providing the data or analysis can you tell where I'm going wrong or misreading because I think we may be at cross purposes? I'm not trying to be condescending, I'm just trying to clear this up.

The first 2 paragraphs from Stuart McDonald, and this all from Stuart not me. I haven't edited this, it was Stuarts screenshots not mine, set out his concern that he wants to address.

Precising, what he's saying, there's a narrative being put out that a majority of cv-19 deaths are old codgers at deaths door who would have died anyway and that CV-19 didn't play a part, they had it, but it was their pre existing underlying conditions that killed them. Hs concern stems from the fact a huge majority of critically ill patients audited were in reasonable health before becoming critically ill, not at deaths door as the current narrative suggests. I've highlighted the lines covering those whose medical history states they were in reasonable and unreasonable health prior to becoming critically ill.
This is deduced from the level of care being required before becoming critically ill. He thinks that should be accurate and not skewed by critically ill patients dying before even getting to ITU in triage as we've been told we had lots of ITU capacity up to April 3 which is the period the audit covers.

I think you don't and that other data in the report shows that its the comorbidities that are the influencing factor in deaths not cv-19, despite the comorbidities not creating any life issues prior to catching CV-19, the narrative that is causing him so much concern and despite the fact that only 7% of 2,124 intensive care admissions had “very severe comorbidities”. which is significantly less than typical viral pneumonia patients, yet more are dying

Which if true, I can get clarified for you, but as I said, I'm not prepared to go to the Head of Demographic Assumptions and Methodology at Lloyds Banking Group and tell him, theres a huge gaping omission in his thinking, CV-19 isn't a factor in these deaths and whats more important is the length of time they had underlying issues that were not previously causing a major problem until they caught cv-19, unless you can explain to me why you know better than he does.

 

[AndyWolves]

Deaths down again and new cases seem to be hovering around the 4k ish mark, sundays figures though so lets see what tomorrow brings

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I think Sturgeon has already briefed that there'll be a jump tomorrow (Scotland only reported 2 deaths). I think we have to accept this for now, whatever gets released on Sunday and Monday is a bit misleading, much as Tuesday will be artificially higher than it *should* be.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

You'd be surprised who you bump into at CostCo.......

 

[AndyWolves]

I think Sturgeon has already briefed that there'll be a jump tomorrow (Scotland only reported 2 deaths). I think we have to accept this for now, whatever gets released on Sunday and Monday is a bit misleading, much as Tuesday will be artificially higher than it *should* be.

Totally, the way we record deaths and the time it can take to appear in the figures isnt spot on either.

My view though is 434 is better than 435, but agreed, trying to read patterns into one days data isnt worth doing.

 

[AndyWolves]

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/04/...rld-from-the-outset-over-threat/?ncid=webmail

This scares the bejesus out of me, more than the virus.

I cant imagine the international community is happy with china et al and the consequences scare me

 

[Trips]

I think Sturgeon has already briefed that there'll be a jump tomorrow (Scotland only reported 2 deaths). I think we have to accept this for now, whatever gets released on Sunday and Monday is a bit misleading, much as Tuesday will be artificially higher than it *should* be.

Someone on sky earlier said that there were less administrative staff working at the weekend, which is why we see the figures dip on Sunday/Monday before going back up

 

[Tredman]

Tests (and reported results) went up though. Looking at 3 or 7 day rolling averages seems to be a good way of observing trends.

 

[AndyWolves]

Tests (and reported results) went up though. Looking at 3 or 7 day rolling averages seems to be a good way of observing trends.

Yeah, saw that - most tests ever today but 3.9k positive which isnt the most ever.

 

[Johnny75]

Johnny , I'll try to go through this as best i can, I just want to make sure we are both on the same page, and you don't think that I am providing the data or analysis can you tell where I'm going wrong or misreading because I think we may be at cross purposes? I'm not trying to be condescending, I'm just trying to clear this up.

The first 2 paragraphs from Stuart McDonald, and this all from Stuart not me. I haven't edited this, it was Stuarts screenshots not mine, set out his concern that he wants to address.

Precising, what he's saying, there's a narrative being put out that a majority of cv-19 deaths are old codgers at deaths door who would have died anyway and that CV-19 didn't play a part, they had it, but it was their pre existing underlying conditions that killed them. Hs concern stems from the fact a huge majority of critically ill patients audited were in reasonable health before becoming critically ill, not at deaths door as the current narrative suggests. I've highlighted the lines covering those whose medical history states they were in reasonable and unreasonable health prior to becoming critically ill. View attachment 2707
This is deduced from the level of care being required before becoming critically ill. He thinks that should be accurate and not skewed by critically ill patients dying before even getting to ITU in triage as we've been told we had lots of ITU capacity up to April 3 which is the period the audit covers.

I think you don't and that other data in the report shows that its the comorbidities that are the influencing factor in deaths not cv-19, despite the comorbidities not creating any life issues prior to catching CV-19, the narrative that is causing him so much concern and despite the fact that only 7% of 2,124 intensive care admissions had “very severe comorbidities”. which is significantly less than typical viral pneumonia patients, yet more are dying

Which if true, I can get clarified for you, but as I said, I'm not prepared to go to the Head of Demographic Assumptions and Methodology at Lloyds Banking Group and tell him, theres a huge gaping omission in his thinking, CV-19 isn't a factor in these deaths and whats more important is the length of time they had underlying issues that were not previously causing a major problem until they caught cv-19, unless you can explain to me why you know better than he does.

Your first mistake is telling me what I think. You should never tell somebody what they think, it's patronising, condescending and plain fucking rude.

Everything you write is shrouded in you thinking you understand stuff and posting it and like all good bullshitters using somebody else's facts to support an agenda NOBODY ON THIS FORUM has posted at any point at any time.

Just for the avoidance of doubt nobody has said anything about people dying before they got to ITU.

Nobody has said anything about old people dying anyway regardless of having Covid-19 and nobody has said at any point that Hannan, Young and other assorted crackpots have influenced their thinking.

You are posting utter bollocks.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Total Individual People Tested & Announced 208837
Total Confirmed tested negative for COVID-19 157229
Total Confirmed tested positive for COVID-19 51608
Largest Daily New People Tested Announced 13313
Largest % of Overall People Tested which confirmed positive 24.71%
Largest UK COVID-19 mortality rate 10.41%
5th Largest daily increase in confirmed Positives for COVID-19 3802
6th Largest daily confirmed fatalities 439

 

[Tredman]

Johnson now in ITU. Raab in charge.

 

[Kenny]

Boris in intensive care

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Your first mistake is telling me what I think. You should never tell somebody what they think, it's patronising, condescending and plain fucking rude.

Everything you write is shrouded in you thinking you understand stuff and posting it and like all good bullshitters using somebody else's facts to support an agenda NOBODY ON THIS FORUM has posted at any point at any time.

Just for the avoidance of doubt nobody has said anything about people dying before they got to ITU.

Nobody has said anything about old people dying anyway regardless of having Covid-19 and nobody has said at any point that Hannan, Young and other assorted crackpots have influenced their thinking.

You are posting utter bollocks.

Calm down Johnny, you'll give yourself an aneurysm.

Given the choice of listening to the Head of a department at a major Global Banking Group whose key role is statistical analysis who has a BSC in Maths and Statistics, is a qualified Actuarian, is a member of the Mortality in Pensions Working Group at Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, has expertise in Longevity Risk and UK Life and Health Insurance and is a member of the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group and a bloke on a message board who Trumplike likes to say 'I just have a feeling about this' I know who I'm going to listen to.

Have you ever considered drinking less coffee?

 

[Tom Hark]

Totally, the way we record deaths and the time it can take to appear in the figures isnt spot on either.

Is this why we have only 135 recoveries and other countries have 000s? I'm baffled by this. (Also why, in the past, we always seemed to have fewer 'serious and critical' cases than the number who died the next day, though that seems to have changed now.)

 

[EdgeOfTheAlps]

Johnson now in ICU

 

[Kenny]

Why couldn't they just say from the start what we all kind of knew...he is seriously ill. Only 2 hours ago he was in good spirits and and still in charge, well clearly he wasn't so just be open and honest.

 

[Rui_CostCo]