Coronavirus

[Johnny75]

That’s been debunked. I hardly ever agree with Andrew Neill, but he looked into this with some fellow German journalists and concluded we are comparing apples with apples. He even apologised for holding a similar viewpoint to you.

Fair enough, don't know why he's apologising though, particularly as we've changed our counting method over the last few days.

The point still stands about the tests.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

As far as I know the Germans collection of data isn't the same as everybody else. They're on their own which isn't helping anybody and it's comparing apples with concrete.

That was a perception a few weeks ago, but i've seen no evidence of that whatsoever, if you can forward me an article that says that then please do, it would put my mind at rest, as it stands Germany seem to be dealing with this better than anyone and i want to know why we are so far behind them.

 

[pr0sl0]

Germany is handling testing so well because it began scaling up capacity back in January (as well as ventilator manufacturing), and still has significant slack in its intensive care system as a result. Those Republican politicians in the US who dumped their stocks ahead of the market crash knew to do so because they were briefed on what was coming back in January. The first meeting of SAGE in the UK regarding the novel coronavirus was on January 13th, and by the end of the month social distancing (along with other more drastic preventative measures) became a question of when, not if - and the infamous herd immunity strategy was already being developed as one of a range of policy responses.

Also, don't put too much on the official date the pandemic was declared - much like "mild" used to describe symptoms, it's an example of where the scientific world has a strict definition which doesn't match with the colloquial usage. The consensus was we were on the way to it becoming a pandemic for several weeks beforehand.

 

[Johnny75]

That was a perception a few weeks ago, but i've seen no evidence of that whatsoever, if you can forward me an article that says that then please do, it would put my mind at rest, as it stands Germany seem to be dealing with this better than anyone and i want to know why we are so far behind them.

Not just us is it, the rest of the world too. The question should be why are they so different in deaths. Testing does not prevent death.

Are they isolating any more than the rest of the world or are they isolating those infected quicker and effectively removing them from the population? There has been nothing out of Germany as to what they are doing different and why they are being so effective. Why haven't the WHO and other governments using the German model.

Something isn't right.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Three months?
So they knew on New Years day that there was a pandemic coming and the nature of what it was going to mean.
Total bollocks.

The problem was known, the systems were in place, there was a failure at some level somewhere.
Had we started orderin/manufacturig tests then, we would be in a significantly better position today.

Maybe I watched different press conferences, but we've been told about Tests being ordered, being bought, getting ramped up, that it would happen by the weekend, by early next week by the end of the week and as soon as possible, once we've finished testing the tests. At some point you have to accept that someone is being economical with the truth, for whatever reason, instead of constantly defending those who are standing up and making these statements and not fulfiling the comitments they themselves are making. No ones laying traps, no ones forcing them to, it's the information voluntarily being given to the population. If the goals arent achievable, dont make the commitments.

December 2019


January 28/9

PHE Health Protection Teams (HPTs) are responsible for advising on patient assessment, for receiving requests for CoV testing of potential cases (and of contacts of known cases), and for providing infection control advice. Any healthcare provider who identifies a contact of a known case of WN-CoV, in China or elsewhere, should immediately notify their nearest PHE HPT, even if the contact is currently well.

Local HPTs lead Public Health England’s response to all health related incidents. They provide specialist support to prevent and reduce the impact of:

infectious diseases
chemical and radiation hazards
major emergencies
HPTs can help with:

local disease surveillance
maintaining alert systems
investigating and managing health protection incidents and outbreaks
implementing and monitoring national action plans for infectious diseases at local level

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-protection-report-volume-14-2020/hpr-volume-14-issue-2-news-28-and-29-january

 

[Tredman]

Not just us is it, the rest of the world too. The question should be why are they so different in deaths. Testing does not prevent death.

Are they isolating any more than the rest of the world or are they isolating those infected quicker and effectively removing them from the population? There has been nothing out of Germany as to what they are doing different and why they are being so effective. Why haven't the WHO and other governments using the German model.

Something isn't right.

They are not different though. If you look at their current trend for deaths then it’s very similar to the rest, but earlier in the process.

They just test way more than the rest so their total number of infected is more reflective of the actual number of infections. With most other countries, ours included, number of infected people is more a measure of how many are in hospital, and has nothing to do with actual number of infected.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

We're setting sail
To the place on the map from which no one has ever returned
Drawn by the promise of the joker and the fool
By the light of the crosses that burn

 

[Johnny75]

Germany is handling testing so well because it began scaling up capacity back in January (as well as ventilator manufacturing), and still has significant slack in its intensive care system as a result. Those Republican politicians in the US who dumped their stocks ahead of the market crash knew to do so because they were briefed on what was coming back in January. The first meeting of SAGE in the UK regarding the novel coronavirus was on January 13th, and by the end of the month social distancing (along with other more drastic preventative measures) became a question of when, not if - and the infamous herd immunity strategy was already being developed as one of a range of policy responses.

Also, don't put too much on the official date the pandemic was declared - much like "mild" used to describe symptoms, it's an example of where the scientific world has a strict definition which doesn't match with the colloquial usage. The consensus was we were on the way to it becoming a pandemic for several weeks beforehand.

Have you got any links for that?

German manufacturers didn't receive an order from the German government till March and it was for 10k over the year (FT article).

Separately, the BMJ has social distancing advice at the middle of March. China reported its first deaths on the 10th Jan and locked down in Feb for a month and a half.

 

[Johnny75]

They are not different though. If you look at their current trend for deaths then it’s very similar to the rest, but earlier in the process.

They just test way more than the rest so their total number of infected is more reflective of the actual number of infections. With most other countries, ours included, number of infected people is more a measure of how many are in hospital, and has nothing to do with actual number of infected.

The number infected is irrelevant at this stage, the number of reported deaths is the only measure to use.

 

[Tredman]

The number infected is irrelevant at this stage, the number of reported deaths is the only measure to use.

Well yes in terms of comparison.

But if you want to understand how widely it has spread, when we can start to get back to normal and how we can properly ensure vulnerable people are protected then proper wide scale testing is essential.

 

[pr0sl0]

The broader point - beyond testing and ventilator manufacturing and so on - is the degree to which known risks were acknowledged and acted-upon, of course, as well as how new information is assessed and responded to. A pandemic like this has been modelled, projected, war-gamed, and anticipated over and over again for decades, but the countries which are now struggling with it each have their own reasons for not taking it seriously enough.

We should really have huge reserves of PPE in a warehouse somewhere for just this eventuality, for example. None of what's happening is especially surprising or new - like, Steven Soderbergh's Contagion (which I'm sure a lot of you have now watched, and, if you haven't, you really should) was directly based on the mountains of forecasting and research into this that already exists, which is why it's all so eerily familiar. In the UK, it's fairly clear that we've had a policy failure to prepare the healthcare system in reasonable ways for a pandemic scenario, but equally clearly we've had a separate (and possibly more severe, although unfortunately we'll only know for certain with a few more months' hindsight) breakdown in competency at the highest levels of government in recognising and responding to what was coming fast enough. The fact that so many wild numbers are being thrown out about procuring chemicals and equipment, and those numbers aren't reflecting either the size of the orders or whether those orders have even been made, is staggering at this point. Not only is it just a shitty attempt at spin, but it could have immense knock-on effects from damage to public trust, which is incredibly important for maintaining lockdown measures without civil unrest.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Have you got any links for that?

German manufacturers didn't receive an order from the German government till March and it was for 10k over the year (FT article).

Separately, the BMJ has social distancing advice at the middle of March. China reported its first deaths on the 10th Jan and locked down in Feb for a month and a half.

December 2019



https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/863349/Global_high_consequence_infectious_disease_events_December_2019.pdf

 

[Paul]

We're setting sail
To the place on the map from which no one has ever returned
Drawn by the promise of the joker and the fool
By the light of the crosses that burn

Sorry mate, but you're coming accross as someone that wants failure to further your agenda. 90% of your posts are criticisms, remember the Harry Enfield character Mr You-Don't-Wanna-Do-It-Like-That ??

 

[Johnny75]

Where do we store PPE? What do we do when it's out of date? Who puts new PPE in place? Who pays for it?

You've said this before and had no answers then either. The whole world has failed if your criteria is why aren't there a million ventilators and 170 million sets of PPE out there in storage.

It's just not realistic.

 

[Johnny75]

December 2019

View attachment 2692

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/863349/Global_high_consequence_infectious_disease_events_December_2019.pdf

Reported deaths are not the discovery of a new virus. You are using notifications out of context as justification of your stance.

 

[Johnny75]

Well yes in terms of comparison.

But if you want to understand how widely it has spread, when we can start to get back to normal and how we can properly ensure vulnerable people are protected then proper wide scale testing is essential.

I don't disagree with that. As Boris has said testing is going to be the key.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Sorry mate, but you're coming accross as someone that wants failure to further your agenda. 90% of your posts are criticisms, remember the Harry Enfield character Mr You-Don't-Wanna-Do-It-Like-That ??

I don't want failure, I wan't someone to start being honest and start getting it right. This isnt about Political allegiance and taking sides or defending against criticism it's about saving as many lives as possible. I'm not alone in losing trust in the people deciding the nations fate. And who doesn't like a bit of World Party?

 

[Johnny75]

I don't want failure, I wan't someone to start being honest and start getting it right. This isnt about Political allegiance and taking sides or defending against criticism it's about saving as many lives as possible. I'm not alone in losing trust in the people deciding the nations fate. And who doesn't like a bit of World Party?

Of course it's about political allegiance, it always is with some people. Not once have you given what you think would happen you're just moaning about policy. It's just whining for the sake of it.

I notice you haven't had a pop at the rest of Europe or China for their stance on this, particularly as it is a pandemic.

 

[Sniffer]

Even friends of the Government in the written press are having a go at them this morning.

Peter Foster
✔
@pmdfoster
Absolutely brutal set of front pages #COVIDー19 #coronavirus - first the heavies. Even supportive media like @Telegraph piling in 1/2

Peter Foster
✔
@pmdfoster
Replying to @pmdfoster
And the tabs no better. Worst of all for the govt it doesn’t look like there are many quick fixes on testing/ventilators. 2/2 #coronavirus #COVIDー19

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

This has been preying on my mind the last couple of nights. Having suffered with long term mental health issues, and now having to learn to deal with the late on-set of epilepsy at just the right moment in time and hey, why not throw insomnia into the mix and I can empathise with any struggles
you're currently enduring.

You've got a large network of friends on here, I think it's true to say youre one of the most loved posters on the site and I'm sure that they will do everything they can to support you in any way they can.

From a purely selfish point of view, I'd be happy for you to spend the entire lockdown sharing any, and all of your thoughts on the club I love that.

No one quite manages to encapsulate what it means to be a Wolves fan quite like you can. Not only do you have an encyclopedic knowledge of all things Wolves that doesnt require the use of Google, you have the rare ability to express the full gamut of football fan emotions in a way that we can all relate to that is entertaining, informative, concise, rich and detailed and that frequently puts fully paid up professional journalists to shame.

I've rarely, if ever read you get anything wrong. It's not a case of always agreeing with everything you've ever put down, if everyone automatically shared the same opinions the world would be a very boring place, it's more that whilst sometimes it may take time, your opinions consistently turn out to be the most well thought out, the most accurate and the most justified.

Counter productively, I'd give my right arm to be able to write the way you're capable of.

On a less selfish note and given your ability to accurately predict Wolves outcomes with signings, results and managers a well as a host of other subjects, have you ever applied to join this project?
https://www.gjopen.com/

"Good Judgment Open is owned and operated by Good Judgment, a forecasting services firm that equips corporate and government decision makers with the benefit of foresight.

Good Judgment’s co-founder, Philip Tetlock, literally wrote the book on state-of-the-art crowd-sourced forecasting."

It was started after but not necessarily because the military intelligence community got the call on Iraqi WMD's so badly wrong. People do it more or less for fun, my understanding of the original project was that you commit to x ammount of time a month to read up on certain subjects and then predict the likelihood of future outcomes, such as https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1542-how-many-fatalities-caused-by-the-wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-as-of-1-june-2020 Even if you don't decide to volunteer, I think the site makes an interesting read.

Good luck with it if you do get involved, and if not, never forget the pleasure that your unique way of
expressing your thinking on Wolves gives to hundreds, if not thousands of other Wolverhampton Wanderers fans. It's something I don't think I've ever said thankyou for. Shouldn't really take a global pandemic to get round to saying something as simple as Thanks to someone you take for granted, but I suspect I'm not alone in finding myself trying to address that with a few people at the moment.

That's very good of you to say mate, I appreciate it.

Nice to know at least someone pays attention to me wittering on