Wolves / Covid-19

[Tony Towner]

You sure? I didn't think you had to register u21 players

He was registered to Rochdale to the end of the season, whether they are playing or his age isn't relevant to that. He can't play for us

 

[jd1981]

Would that model take into account who your opponent are in the remaining games?

 

[The Bear]

If they take everyone's PPG for home and away records then apply them to all of the home and away games they have left, then you can't really get much fairer than that.

 

[sycophantia]

If they take everyone's PPG for home and away records then apply them to all of the home and away games they have left, then you can't really get much fairer than that.

That would seem to be the fairest way to me if we can't finish the games

 

[jd1981]

If you do the same maths in the PL it'll be Norwich, Villa and West ham going down.

 

[PuntsWolf]

If you do the same maths in the PL it'll be Norwich, Villa and West ham going down.

Where do I sign.

Saying that literally every result of relegation is a good one. I’d probably favour Bournemouth to go down over West Ham but there’s not much in it

 

[jd1981]

Where do I sign.

Saying that literally every result of relegation is a good one. I’d probably favour Bournemouth to go down over West Ham but there’s not much in it

might have it wrong but you'll have Watford on 35.8, Bournemouth on 35.8 West ham on 35.6, villa on 34.9 and Norwich 28.

Points gained divide by home/away games played x by home/away games remaining.

 

[Tony Towner]

The proposal is home points divided by games plays x 23 away points divided by games played x 23 and add together. There isn't a strength of schedule calculation.

The only material difference would be Chletenham go up instead of Exeter.

 

[jd1981]

Still think its the same 3 going down in the PL

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

If you do the same maths in the PL it'll be Norwich, Villa and West ham going down.

That would do nicely. How do we come off against Sheffield United?

 

[Tony Towner]

Wolves would get 0.6 of a point more than standard ppg

 

[Tony Towner]

That would do nicely. How do we come off against Sheffield United?

About a point behind

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Still in Europe then, hopefully. I still want the games played as I think we can finish higher on merit.

 

[Johnny75]

If they take everyone's PPG for home and away records then apply them to all of the home and away games they have left, then you can't really get much fairer than that.

There's a good set of opinions on this from the stats folks at Statsnomb along with Ted Knutson (Mixedknuts on Twitter) and other football stats guys who say PPG is an unacceptable way of resolving the season.

Their argument is to mathematically model the game based on the data they have to date this season and model each game x amount of times and then for somebody to draw a random number which would then give a result.

That would be the most logical way to do things to me.

 

[jd1981]

There's a good set of opinions on this from the stats folks at Statsnomb along with Ted Knutson (Mixedknuts on Twitter) and other football stats guys who say PPG is an unacceptable way of resolving the season.

Their argument is to mathematically model the game based on the data they have to date this season and model each game x amount of times and then for somebody to draw a random number which would then give a result.

That would be the most logical way to do things to me.

Let me get my head around this you’d model each fixture say 10x ie Man City v Bournemouth you’d probably have 9 city wins to Bournemouth 1 so which ever game you pick it would be 90% chance of a city win.
Whereas Sheff Utd v Wolves would be more even say 4 Sheff utd wins, 3 draws and 3 Wolves wins?
Can see some logic in it basically PPG doesn’t take into account your opponents Villa and Brighton in particular have difficult run ins.

Someone could get very flukey with how it’s drawn out.

 

[PuntsWolf]

I imagine you’d have to run each game a thousand times (or other large number) and take an average to get a fair result. Using the city bournemouth example, you couldn’t have them stating up based purely on “luck of the draw”.

Maths/Stats isn’t my area of expertise so I will await someone with more knowledge to correct me.

 

[Tony Towner]

There's a good set of opinions on this from the stats folks at Statsnomb along with Ted Knutson (Mixedknuts on Twitter) and other football stats guys who say PPG is an unacceptable way of resolving the season.

Their argument is to mathematically model the game based on the data they have to date this season and model each game x amount of times and then for somebody to draw a random number which would then give a result.

That would be the most logical way to do things to me.

A more sophisticated version of how the top 4 positions in the NBA Draft are worked out.

 

[SSB]

The live lockdown Q&A with Adama is a waste of time. 90% of it has been conducted in Spanish when he can speak English perfectly.

 

[Johnny75]

Let me get my head around this you’d model each fixture say 10x ie Man City v Bournemouth you’d probably have 9 city wins to Bournemouth 1 so which ever game you pick it would be 90% chance of a city win.
Whereas Sheff Utd v Wolves would be more even say 4 Sheff utd wins, 3 draws and 3 Wolves wins?
Can see some logic in it basically PPG doesn’t take into account your opponents Villa and Brighton in particular have difficult run ins.

Someone could get very flukey with how it’s drawn out.

That's the gist of it. It makes sense to me and maybe there's done merit in it. Could really only work with the too two divisions as the data collection isn't there for L1 and 2.

Tony - I didn't know that but if that's the precedent then maybe the PL should run with it.

 

[Tony Towner]

Watford have joined the no neutral venues club. Who'd have thought it? Brady is going for a new approach of needing to disinfect grass which will kill it.