Wolves 0 - 2 Huddersfield: The Verdict.

[Deutsch Wolf]

One more assist for Joao, 1.11 does not round up to 2.

I still don't understand the intricacies behind xG and xA fully, is it Adama's fault that he has fewer assists than he "should" have or everyone else's fault for not putting the chances away? I'm trying to learn though.

And as I say, you look at Raul's header. xG of 0.09 on that one. Goes against him because it didn't go in. Not his fault though, was it. He couldn't have done much more.

 

[Johnny75]

Thanks for that. Using these stats then

Raul should have scored 2 more goals and one less assist
Moutinho 2 more assists
Costa and Jota 1.5 goals each more and 1.5 assists more

Shall we use the proper maths rules?

Raul is 2 goals behind but has 2 assists more.
Moutinho has 1 goal more but 1 assist less
Costa is 1 goal and 1 assist light
Jota is 2 goals and 1 assist light

 

[Derby Wolf]

Let's say Raul has had 7 big misses, which were they and were they saved or missed and could it have been finished better?

Everton (h) 1v1 could've done better maybe but no guarantee of a goal
Man Utd (a) decent save by De Gea.
West Ham (a) horrendous
Southampton (h) outrageous save by McCarthy
Huddersfield (h) abhorrent

What are the other two? Maybe Burnley at home? Double save by Hart and Leicester?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Let's say Raul has had 7 big misses, which were they and were they saved or missed and could it have been finished better?

Everton (h) 1v1 could've done better maybe?
Man Utd (a) decent save by De Gea.
West Ham (a) horrendous
Southampton (h) outrageous save by McCarthy
Huddersfield (h) abhorrent

What are the other two? Maybe Burnley at home? Double save by Hart and Leicester?

Hennessey made a good save from him too.

As you can see from the xG, when a lot of fans go "wow, he really should have scored from there", the facts don't bear it out. I don't know where the PL are pulling this "stat" from (other than out of their arse) but it's all over the place.

I've seen Kane miss quite a few good chances this season - he is still brilliant obviously, love you skipper other than when you're playing Wolves - but he's only one down on xG.

https://understat.com/player/647

 

[Premier Quality]

One more assist for Joao, 1.11 does not round up to 2.

I still don't understand the intricacies behind xG and xA fully, is it Adama's fault that he has fewer assists than he "should" have or everyone else's fault for not putting the chances away? I'm trying to learn though.

And as I say, you look at Raul's header. xG of 0.09 on that one. Goes against him because it didn't go in. Not his fault though, was it. He couldn't have done much more.

I thought he did well on the header - he had to beat the defender in the air, and put it across the keeper, and avoid Billing on the line for that to be a goal - 0.99 feels like a gimme, which that definately wasn’t.

Ignore me, it was 0.09, I misread completely

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

xG on some of Raul's misses:

Everton: 0.30
Leicester: 0.09
West Ham: This doesn't register as he never got a shot off
Burnley: 0.36 (over the bar) and 0.45 (double save)
Man Utd: 0.43
Southampton: 0.03 (there's a 0.14 too from fairly close range near the first half and registered as a save, I can't remember it off hand though)
Palace: 0.39
Huddersfield: 0.09 (off the line) and the pass to no-one won't register

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Shall we use the proper maths rules?

Raul is 2 goals behind but has 2 assists more.
Moutinho has 1 goal more but 1 assist less
Costa is 1 goal and 1 assist light
Jota is 2 goals and 1 assist light

So you agree that Raul should have scored more. Thanks
So you agree costa and Jota should have scored and created more Thanks
So you agree that Moutinho is about where he should be. Thanks.

- here are three sets of the worlds smallest scissors to allow you to split the hairs.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

xG on some of Raul's misses:

Everton: 0.30
Leicester: 0.09
West Ham: This doesn't register as he never got a shot off
Burnley: 0.36 (over the bar) and 0.45 (double save)
Man Utd: 0.43
Southampton: 0.03 (there's a 0.14 too from fairly close range near the first half and registered as a save, I can't remember it off hand though)
Palace: 0.39
Huddersfield: 0.09 (off the line) and the pass to no-one won't register

Addendum to this: Matt Ritchie's miss on Monday only had an xG of 0.56. So you will very rarely get an individual chance from open play scoring much higher than that. Penalties appear to always be an xG of 0.76 irrespective of who the taker is.

Also Raul gets nothing on the scorecard at all for his perfectly good goal vs Spurs.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

xG on some of Raul's misses:

Everton: 0.30
Leicester: 0.09
West Ham: This doesn't register as he never got a shot off
Burnley: 0.36 (over the bar) and 0.45 (double save)
Man Utd: 0.43
Southampton: 0.03 (there's a 0.14 too from fairly close range near the first half and registered as a save, I can't remember it off hand though)
Palace: 0.39
Huddersfield: 0.09 (off the line) and the pass to no-one won't register

So thats why it doesnt coumnt as a big miss on the premier stats then not cause they havent updated them as its not a big miss! Well it looked like a big miss to me!

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

So thats why it doesnt coumnt as a big miss on the premier stats then not cause they havent updated them as its not a big miss! Well it looked like a big miss to me!

Eh?

They clearly aren't using xG, they're using some other bollocks method which is totally worthless. Ignore that site.

 

[YoungWolf]

xG is by no means full proof but I definitely prefer it to the Saunders ‘we could have had ten! type nonsense

 

[Deleted Cyber]

For all of you interested here is a basic guide. I hadnt a clue so google was my friend too. https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/8a8mhp/oc_an_introductory_guide_to_the_xg_statistic_the/

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

xG is by no means full proof but I definitely prefer it to the Saunders ‘we could have had ten! type nonsense

I'm not a full disciple of it at all - for example it doesn't take allowance of a goalkeeper's brilliance. Sure, at Old Trafford Raul is about 8-9 yards out, middle of the goal, you would expect someone to score there quite often and so you get an xG of 0.43. But it's David de Gea in nets and he saved it, not many other keepers would have.

But it is at least based on y'know, an absolutely monumental amount of data and factual evidence, and presumably they'll look to improve it on an ongoing basis. Rather than "my Gran would have scored that and she's dead" nonsense.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

What it does conclusively show is that XG with whatever flaws, calculate that we should have

1. 6 more goals scored
2. 4 more assists

If I have understood it correctly.

so we are 33% down on the number of goals we should have scored? Shows as a team we are no where near clinical enough. Or have I misinterpretted that?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

That's a fair conclusion. It has already cost us a minimum of five points against Brighton and Arsenal. At least one against Leicester, maybe three.

Saying Raul Jimenez should be on 10 goals (at least) by now is not a fair conclusion, evidently.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

That's a fair conclusion. It has already cost us a minimum of five points against Brighton and Arsenal. At least one against Leicester, maybe three.

Saying Raul Jimenez should be on 10 goals (at least) by now is not a fair conclusion, evidently.

I would add 1 v spurs for the incorrectly disallowed goal and Costas miss- 1 of those should have counted.

Raul-No he shouldnt have 10 and in fairness I never said he should. I reckon if he had 5 or 6 that we would all be fine given he has one penalty.

Thanks for the pointers and the explanations. Genuinely. I really want to quote real stats. Its difficult to always find them and trust them.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

That's another thing that xG can't factor in, farcical refereeing decisions. I bet most people are in agreement that if we get an incredibly obvious penalty at Brighton and stick it away, we win. Forget all the other misses. They didn't look even remotely capable of getting into the game at that stage and we are superb at defending a lead on the whole.

 

[Tony Towner]

What it does conclusively show is that XG with whatever flaws, calculate that we should have

1. 6 more goals scored
2. 4 more assists

If I have understood it correctly.

so we are 33% down on the number of goals we should have scored? Shows as a team we are no where near clinical enough. Or have I misinterpretted that?

Based on the expected goal metric we would have been 6th in the table before this weekend

 

[Tredman]

Just read all these posts and have been very interesting,!

 

[Norman Deeley]

Mgw 0.38
Traore 0.35
Cav.0.23
Jiminez 0.22
Jota 0.17
Costa 0.06

Wow!

Now let's pretend for a minute that Costa and Traore had been the other way round...