Trump

[Alan]

Also worth pointing out that declaring a vaccine any percent effective without at lest two years of intensive study and patient tracking is complete nonsense.

Vaccines can't be declared one way or the other in just a few months.

 

[Tony Towner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1329082454200631297

 

[Kenny]

A stable Jenius

​

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Keeping busy, Don?

I don't think "having lunch" counts as work either but you crack on.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The live tweet feed of Guiliani in court was an eye opener. Rare to find a brief that makes the lawyer in the Simpsons look like Perry Mason. He did it though. Impressive.

 

[Alan]

It's hard for me to reconcile the Giuliani of today with the one who was in the streets of New York on Sept. 11th.

 

[Kenny]

The live tweet feed of Guiliani in court was an eye opener. Rare to find a brief that makes the lawyer in the Simpsons look like Perry Mason. He did it though. Impressive.

Seems he earns $20,000 per day when working for Trump!! In his best interests to drag this shit out even it means he spends time quoting lines from My Cousin Vinny and you get to see his head melting

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Like Trump will actually pay him...

 

[Kenny]

He gets his $$ or else he would have turned by now

 

[YoungWolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1329492698680619008

 

[Dennisons Wrong Foot]

The strategy to 'win' the election is becoming more apparent.
1) Persuade his supporters that the democrats have brazenly stolen the result from him - the rightful winner.
2) His supporters pressure their state representatives (some of whom are already as equally crazy as trump).
3) The state legislatures decide that trump gets the electoral college votes.
4) The Supreme Court determines that state legislatures do indeed have the authority to do that.
5) trump wins

 

[WolfmanOz]

I disagree DWF, this is how I see their strategy - excuse me for the longish analysis below (in which I try to take out the emotion) but this is not very straight-forward (I've written a couple of longer pieces in some discussions about this with others also looking at how this is being played out).

I should add I have a double masters degree in Political Science/History majoring in US Politics (albeit nearly 40 odd years ago) - not that it makes me an authority on such issues but I do actually have a very good knowledge about the US systems checks and balances in-built into their political structures which is very different to the UK/Australian parliamentary system which we are all very familiar with.

The probability of Trump prevailing in a traditional fraud case in my opinion is arguably pretty low. Statistical anomalies might be suggestive of fraud but does not constitute direct evidence of fraud. Much of the direct evidence will be in the form of sworn affidavits of persons alleging to have witnessed irregular or fraudulent activity, but how much of this can be corroborated? Is a judge likely to disenfranchise tens or hundreds of thousands of voters based solely on some statistical anomalies and a few eye witnesses claiming to have seen things no one else can verify and others may dispute?

Presumably this is why Trump attorney Sidney Powell is zeroing in on Dominion / Smartmatic. This narrows the issues and points of contention significantly, making for a simpler case to argue and hence win, while simultaneously raising the level of fraud (or potential fraud) if proven to a threshold equal to, or in excess of current margins in each of the states in question, casting sufficient enough doubt about the results so as to trigger some kind of remedy. Moreover, because Smartmatic software is used in 30 states (or more) if it were found to be corrupted (or open to corrupt interference including possible foreign interference) in one state it could invalidate the election results everywhere it was used.

To say that it is a simpler case is not to say it is an easy case to win. Powell has made very big claims and will need a lot of compelling evidence to substantiate them. If her argument were to prevail it would throw America into an unparalleled constitutional, political and social crisis.

Note also the SCOTUS ruled in a landmark case UNITED STATES v. THROCKMORTON (98 US 61 - Supreme Court 1878) that “fraud vitiates everything”.

By categorically asserting that “fraud vitiates everything”, the SCOTUS affirms that perpetrating fraud undermines the entire endeavour, the whole contract, the complete judgment, the final result, or the election outcome, etc. Once the fraud is proven, the enterprise in its entirety, such as a POTUS candidacy or campaign, has been irreparably tainted and any result is invalidated. In order words, if it was only the Michigan vote was "stolen" by Team Biden, their victory would still have been nullified since “fraud vitiates everything”. (“Vitiates” in this legal context means negates, quashes, annuls, invalidates, revokes and abrogates) See: Let’s be very clear about the 2020 election outcome: “FRAUD VITIATES EVERYTHING”.

That's how I see it . . .

 

[Dennisons Wrong Foot]

I don't think we disagree that much (fortunately so since you are obviously much more knowledgeable than I). trump has to throw enough mud to put the election result in doubt. Even then he can only succeed with help from the Supreme Court - something that would need 5 of the 6 republicans on the court go along with him (and Roberts is a likely 'no').
Where we differ is on how he gets the Supreme Court involved. I think Dominion is an extremely difficult path for him, as there is so far zero proof or evidence of any mistakes with the equipment. trumpism is a cult - so actual facts are irrelevant to its adherents. That is why I think pressure from him and his supporters towards individual state legislators - while also unlikely to succeed - nevertheless seems more realistic. trump has already invited Michigan republican leaders to the White House, and if he can persuade one set of legislators that the result in their state cannot be certified and that they have the absolute authority to pronounce him the real winner, that will put more pressure on republican leaders in other states - eg Georgia.

 

[WolfmanOz]

Fair enough, but I think the Dominion / Smartmatic angle is one to be very wary of - given comments re its links to Venezuela, Cuba and other countries

Back in 2018 Trump set up a situation via Executive Orders which has given him unparalleled legal tools to deal with any foreign interference, so the trigger appears to be not so much the actions of American citizens caught up in this caper but rather the foreigners’ actions which give him the power to intervene - thus the repeated mention of Venezuela, Cuba, Chine and even Canada.

Forget Rudy Giuliani, the one to really watch out for is Sidney Powell - she's one helluva of a smart lawyer and a highly distinguished attorney, a former federal prosecutor, and has been the lead attorney on over 500 appeals (including at Supreme Court) with a 70% reversal record and claims she has the evidence Dominion / Smartmatic - time will tell in the next few weeks.

Personally, I think this election has been extremely whiffy, but whether or not the irregularities stack up to a mass fraud/conspiracy, is going to be a very high bar to prove (and so it should be).

In addition, I have been very uncomfortable with the media and Biden announcing him as the President-Elect. You are not “President-elect” until the electoral college meets and confirms your victory sometime in December.

IF, and I repeat, IF, the Democrats have been found to have committed mass fraud in this election, then there's going to be hell to play. I hope and pray to God not ! but I am not discounting the possibility.

If I was Biden I'd be making all efforts to ensure investigations into fraud are supported to ensure the election is relatively clean. I don't think to flat-out deny and ignore it is the smart move, as, although he will probably end up winning, he's going to face accusations of illegitimacy and cheating from Trump's supporters - and there was 70 million plus of those.

The Democrats spent over 3 years trying to delegitimise Trump with the Russian collision, Biden shouldn't want a situation that can dog him for his Presidency.

I'm a big believer in the concept of "Loser's Consent" in how being able to accept losing is one of the central requirements of democracy. It didn't happen in 2016 and it looks like it won't be happening in 2020 - 2 wrongs don't make a right, regardless of your political persuasion.

 

[Dennisons Wrong Foot]

Living here we don't get any objective outside opinions. The mainstream media is most definitely left-leaning, probably reflecting New York values rather than being overtly pro-democrat. Having said that I am aware of absolutely no public information to suggest the election is "whiffy" (excluding trumps own tactics). So I would be interested to find out what information you have.

I can truthfully say that the possibilities of massive democrat fraud are less than zero. It just is so unfeasible. And no 'objective' republican has suggested it.

For all intents and purposes Biden is President-elect. In any other election the winner would be anointed thus prior to the formal announcement. This election should be no different, and any failure to consider Biden the winner ultimately serves the purpose of delegitimising the election.

I do agree that democrats should support investigations into fraud or irregularities - IF there is any evidence to support it. Like I say, if that evidence does exist we have not been given it - not even by trump, Giuliani, or Sidney Powell.

One argument we hear is that it just could not be plausible for trump to be leading by so many votes in the early counting, only for a late surge to push Biden past him. But this very scenario was widely predicted beforehand - people who voted on the day were majority republicans, and mail-in voters (in several states not counted early) were majority democrat. In fact this is what trump appeared to want - telling his supporters to vote on the day and in person.

Finally - another argument I often hear is that Biden could not ever get so many votes, since he hardly campaigned and his events were poorly attended. This ignores the HUGE anti-trump sentiment among Americans.

 

[WolfmanOz]

The basis of Trump’s claim is that mathematics and statistics show a number of anomalous results happening in this election which, while not evidence of fraud, are nonetheless red flags of possible electoral fraud, which gives weight to the claims of thousands of witnesses that have produced written testimony alleging widespread illegal or non-compliant electoral activity (which I will call traditional voter / electoral fraud) bringing into question the integrity or accuracy of the election result.

A lot of the "allegations" etc etc can be seen sites like American Thinker. I'm not suggesting they're all valid but they need to be tested in a court of law not in the opinion of the MSM, which, as you have noted, the MSM in the US is most definitely left-wing and are heavily in bed with the Democrats, which IMO, is not healthy for a vibrant democracy.

In the first Presidential debate, Chris Wallace asked Biden if he would wait until the vote was certified before he claimed the election – Biden said “Yes”. But he didn’t wait, which is extremely disappointing as this election is very close, as you are looking at a hundred odd thousand votes in half a dozen states that could swing it back. Of course, we can go back to 2000 when Al Gore claimed he'd won (supported by the media again then) and then nearly 40 odd days later conceded with the SCOTUS decision on Florida meant Bush won (we could go on and on re 2000 but that would be a distraction).

Trump’s language is very abrasive for sure but his claims / suspicions of electoral fraud deserve to be taken seriously. Yes they need to be fully substantiated and rigorously tested and we will know more about the strength of his case(s) after it has been filed and evidence presented in the next few weeks. Until then claims his case is baseless is itself baseless. Moreover, given the tight timeframes and massive effort required to pull a case like this together the notion that everything would be laid out on day one is nonsense. The basis of his claim is clear, how well it can be substantiated is unclear. It will also be the SCOTUS that will decide this, forget the other courts, they're just window dressing to the end game.

Indeed Biden was being advised by Hillary Clinton not to concede in the event he lost before he had pursued his legal options. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. And if you want to assume the mantle of Leader of the Free World a good starting point is proof you won a free and fair election.

Whichever way Trump’s litigation goes it has highlighted that the US voting system is seriously broken and in chronic need of reform. For a country that routinely self proclaims to be the “world’s greatest democracy” its voting system is an embarrassment and disgrace and no amount of media denial can hide the fact.

At least then we can have a friendly, reasoned discussion about this without the rancour that has infected the US political scene.

 

[darlowolf64]

Trumps "litigation" has been thrown out of every Court it has entered. His lawyers have had to step back from fraud claims for fear of perjuring themselves in a court of law and are even refusing to go to court for Trump any more.
The only person he can get to go into court, Guliani, has realised he cant and wont get away with the unsubstantiated and outright lies that he spouts in front of the cameras outside the court.
There is no suspicion of fraud, only in the mind of Trump and his lunatic fringe and the sooner he is removed from the White House, the better for the entire World

 

[Jabbawolf]

Trumps "litigation" has been thrown out of every Court it has entered. His lawyers have had to step back from fraud claims for fear of perjuring themselves in a court of law and are even refusing to go to court for Trump any more.
The only person he can get to go into court, Guliani, has realised he cant and wont get away with the unsubstantiated and outright lies that he spouts in front of the cameras outside the court.
There is no suspicion of fraud, only in the mind of Trump and his lunatic fringe and the sooner he is removed from the White House, the better for the entire World

Michael - good job we got a northerner to just say it as it is rather than give any credence to Trump’s delusions - he lost, quite heavily in the end - stop being a baby, and get your sorry ass out of the White House.

 

[Tony Towner]

The basis of Trump’s claim is that mathematics and statistics show a number of anomalous results happening in this election which, while not evidence of fraud, are nonetheless red flags of possible electoral fraud, which gives weight to the claims of thousands of witnesses that have produced written testimony alleging widespread illegal or non-compliant electoral activity (which I will call traditional voter / electoral fraud) bringing into question the integrity or accuracy of the election result.

A lot of the "allegations" etc etc can be seen sites like American Thinker. I'm not suggesting they're all valid but they need to be tested in a court of law not in the opinion of the MSM, which, as you have noted, the MSM in the US is most definitely left-wing and are heavily in bed with the Democrats, which IMO, is not healthy for a vibrant democracy.

In the first Presidential debate, Chris Wallace asked Biden if he would wait until the vote was certified before he claimed the election – Biden said “Yes”. But he didn’t wait, which is extremely disappointing as this election is very close, as you are looking at a hundred odd thousand votes in half a dozen states that could swing it back. Of course, we can go back to 2000 when Al Gore claimed he'd won (supported by the media again then) and then nearly 40 odd days later conceded with the SCOTUS decision on Florida meant Bush won (we could go on and on re 2000 but that would be a distraction).

Trump’s language is very abrasive for sure but his claims / suspicions of electoral fraud deserve to be taken seriously. Yes they need to be fully substantiated and rigorously tested and we will know more about the strength of his case(s) after it has been filed and evidence presented in the next few weeks. Until then claims his case is baseless is itself baseless. Moreover, given the tight timeframes and massive effort required to pull a case like this together the notion that everything would be laid out on day one is nonsense. The basis of his claim is clear, how well it can be substantiated is unclear. It will also be the SCOTUS that will decide this, forget the other courts, they're just window dressing to the end game.

Indeed Biden was being advised by Hillary Clinton not to concede in the event he lost before he had pursued his legal options. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. And if you want to assume the mantle of Leader of the Free World a good starting point is proof you won a free and fair election.

Whichever way Trump’s litigation goes it has highlighted that the US voting system is seriously broken and in chronic need of reform. For a country that routinely self proclaims to be the “world’s greatest democracy” its voting system is an embarrassment and disgrace and no amount of media denial can hide the fact.

At least then we can have a friendly, reasoned discussion about this without the rancour that has infected the US political scene.

Watch John Oliver this week, he debunks pretty much every claim. They have nothing other than uncoberated, anecdotal rubbish, it won't get to the SC because there's no evidence that'll justify it getting that far. Small individual cases will exist as they will in any election across the World, but there is nothing to support widespread fraud or malpractice deliberate or otherwise.

The only reason the GOP are supportive is he has such a hold over them and more importantly his supporters that they are worried about getting on the wrong side of him until he goes, or that he'll run again/push Ivanka forwards. The populism doesn't go away with the loss, if anything else it dials it up to another level, although he was comfortably beaten in both the popular and electoral college vote (I appreciate the latter has to be ratified) there are still 47% of American voters who support him.

Tucker Carlson, Lou Dobbs etc are similar, he's given them unprecedented attention for members of the media, their brand relies on him so of course they are going to pump up the noise and repeat the allegations. Repeating and shouting them doesn't make them any more truthful.

I agree the voting system is corrupt, but that tends to benefit Republicans with gerrymandered boroughs in Congress and City elections and limited places to vote in principally poor Democratic areas, hence the sight of people queueing for 7 hours to cast their ballot. I'd argue that so many people voting by post and increasing the turnout actually made this the most democratic election they've had.

 

[Kenny]

Looks like the recount of votes in Georgia were done fraudulently as the result is the same...