Summer 2020 Transfer Window (Extended Version)

[Norman Deeley]

Right now - Aug 27th - the window isn't going well. Yes, it doesn't end until October, but we'll have played nearly a quarter of a season by then, and we all saw last season what a bad start can cost.

Nuno hasn't signed a new deal, neither has Boly (I think) and if we don't strengthen (and finish, say, 12th to 14th) then we can wave goodbye to some big names.

I'm full of admiration for Doc: he's made the most of his talents but - as we've always say - he always looks like he needs 6-8 games to get up to speed and he does give the ball away a lot. And neither is he going to improve at 28/29. But £15m in today's market is - as TT says - at least £10m short. If he goes and we sign say, AMN and Max Aarons then all well and good. But right now the former is looking likely and the latter isn't.

 

[Black Mountain Wolf *47*]

Morgan Gibbs-White going to Swansea on season long loan.

 

[AndyWolves]

We have to restrict losses to £27 million for the financial year ending in 2020 and then break even over the three-year period of 2019, 2020 and 2021, so we're not in the same boat as Chelsea, City etc.

That's only if we're in euopre right?

 

[AndyWolves]

IF we are to sell Doherty for £15m it would be concerning on many levels:
1) It undervalues him by at least £10m. We'd be selling a first team player (as he is now) to a Top 6 side, aged 28 and with 3 years left on his contract. We'd have been mugged which then raises questions about Jeff's ability to do that role.
2) It adds credibility to the rumours that we don't have much money to spend this Summer. If that is the case then at least maximise the value of who you are selling
3) The season starts in 2 weeks, a replacement outside of the club will take time to learn the system and one inside would be either a kid who hasn't really trained with the first team yet or Buur
4) I agree that Doherty is upgradeable, but when most say they don't mean him leaving. He becomes one of those on the bench that Nuno will trust Before any signings that would have us down to 13 that he will play. At the very least let's sign the replacement first

I get all that, but nothing to date has me worried. I don't feel like we're in Scott Golbourne times just yet.

I personally think Doc will crash and burn at Spurs and now is the peak of his value. I think Jeff sees this as an opportunity

I hope we do have someone lined up, if we don't then I'll be more concerned but for now I'll just see how it plays out

 

[Nando]

That's only if we're in euopre right?

No I don't think so - it was only the squad restrictions that kicked in if we qualified from how I understand it.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

You can lose a lot more than that under PL FFP.

 

[Sniffer]

No I don't think so - it was only the squad restrictions that kicked in if we qualified from how I understand it.

£35m per season allowable losses in the Premier League.

Pre Tax Profit (which isnt the Premier League Formula) was £20m in 2018/19 compared to a £57m loss the year before.

 

[Nando]

Well yes, but we're now constrained by the settlement agreement with UEFA over the next three years so we don't have carte blanche to go ballistic in the market and fall back on the less onerous PL FFP regime.

You'd think that under the terms of the settlement, if we don't comply then we'd be hit with more draconian penalties.

 

[AndyWolves]

Well yes, but we're now constrained by the settlement agreement with UEFA over the next three years so we don't have carte blanche to go ballistic in the market and fall back on the less onerous PL FFP regime.

You'd think that under the terms of the settlement, if we don't comply then we'd be hit with more draconian penalties.

Are you sure? That means we'll have to comply with rules for a competition we're not in

 

[YoungWolf]

We made a £20m profit last year right? So, even with the financial hit everyone will have taken as a result of the pandemic, I wasn;t too worried about the restrictions. But agree we can't just go full out and spend 200m of course.

 

[Nando]

Are you sure? That means we'll have to comply with rules for a competition we're not in

No, I'm not sure, but I'm surprised at the lack of attention/commentary it's been giving in the wider press as it could potentially be a much bigger issue for us over the next three years.

“The settlement agreement covers the sporting seasons 2020-21 and 2021-22,” UEFA said in the statement.

“Wolverhampton Wanderers undertakes to report a maximum break-even deficit of 30 million euros in the financial year ending in 2020 and to finally reach, in the 2021-22 season, an aggregate break-even result for the financial years ending in 2019, 2020 and 2021 within the acceptable deviation.

As YW says, we made a profit for the last results despite a net spend of over £80m and our net spend for 19/20 has been similar once you take into account the Cav/Costa fees. How the pandemic has eaten into that we don't really know.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

I get all that, but nothing to date has me worried. I don't feel like we're in Scott Golbourne times just yet.

I personally think Doc will crash and burn at Spurs and now is the peak of his value. I think Jeff sees this as an opportunity

I hope we do have someone lined up, if we don't then I'll be more concerned but for now I'll just see how it plays out

£15m doesn't seem like peak value.

 

[Tony Towner]

No, I'm not sure, but I'm surprised at the lack of attention/commentary it's been giving in the wider press as it could potentially be a much bigger issue for us over the next three years.

“The settlement agreement covers the sporting seasons 2020-21 and 2021-22,” UEFA said in the statement.

“Wolverhampton Wanderers undertakes to report a maximum break-even deficit of 30 million euros in the financial year ending in 2020 and to finally reach, in the 2021-22 season, an aggregate break-even result for the financial years ending in 2019, 2020 and 2021 within the acceptable deviation.

As YW says, we made a profit for the last results despite a net spend of over £80m and our net spend for 19/20 has been similar once you take into account the Cav/Costa fees. How the pandemic has eaten into that we don't really know.

The average PL club lost £25m of revenue last season due to Covid. Sky money, gate receipts, commercial revenue etc.

 

[AndyWolves]

£15m doesn't seem like peak value.

Maybe not, but is his value (percieved or otherwise) ever going to be higher?

 

[Wolvensam]

£15m doesn't seem like peak value.

He has two years of Premier League experience, one year of Europa League experience, is not a regular Ireland international and is 28 years old.

I think £15m is pretty much peak.

Do I personally think he is better than Ben Chilwell? They're about on par. But Chilwell has won the Premier League, played Champions League football, has England caps, is younger with potential to improve and so on. How good Doherty is now is as good as he's going to get.

 

[YoungWolf]

Would you have us nearer the lower end of that loss then? Finished higher up the league so more prize money. Also we are said to have made £20-25m from the Europa League run or have I made that up?

 

[Deano]

He has two years of Premier League experience, one year of Europa League experience, is not a regular Ireland international and is 28 years old.

I think £15m is pretty much peak.

Do I personally think he is better than Ben Chilwell? They're about on par. But Chilwell has won the Premier League, played Champions League football, has England caps, is younger with potential to improve and so on. How good Doherty is now is as good as he's going to get.

The way the market is at the moment £15m is miles under value for him.

 

[Nando]

Would you have us nearer the lower end of that loss then? Finished higher up the league so more prize money. Also we are said to have made £20-25m from the Europa League run or have I made that up?

I've worked out that based on transfer fees, we've spent circa £65m net this season. That takes into account the increased fees for both Cav/Costa, the loan fee for Cutrone but not the final lump sum. Net spend in 18/19 was around £80m, so we're better off in that respect than the season beforehand where we reported a £20m profit. I'd expect the wage bill is higher though, which will eat away at that.

£20m or so from the Europa was definitely floating around - Swiss Ramble I think touched on it.

 

[Tony Towner]

Would you have us nearer the lower end of that loss then? Finished higher up the league so more prize money. Also we are said to have made £20-25m from the Europa League run or have I made that up?

Yes I'd suggest we'd be at the lower end of that given the size of our ground. EL was £22m in prize money from memory before travelling expenses

 

[Wolvensam]

I just don't think we could command much more than £20m for him. If he was the other side of 25, we probably could.