Summer 2017 Window Thread

[Tony Towner]

He's liked Deutsch's Tweet....

https://twitter.com/OscillateWWFC/status/898109716794048513

 

[wolvesjoe]

It seems to me the FFP discussion needs a bit of refinement and specificity in order to understand Fosun's position and options at this point.

FFP allows for 39m in losses, to be covered by owner equity investment, over any 3 year period at Championship level, as we know.

Certain expenses re. Academy and infrastructural spending are exempt from being classified in those losses.

Amortisation spreads the spending on players over the lengths of their respective contracts, rather than being accounted for
in the season of purchase.

Morgan's last season saw a pre-tax profit of around 6m, principally from the Afobe sale, so that figure would be included in
any current 3 year assessment.

We dont know the losses incurred by Fosun for last season or for this season, and wont know until December, (??), this year for
last season. But for the sake of argument, say it was a 10m loss last season and a 20m loss this season, then one can work out
what their current limitations and possibilities are, roughly at least.

The formula would be straightforward enough: 6-10-20=-24m

But if we project the -20m loss forward for the following season if Wolves failed to achieve promotion this season, then a different
picture emerges: -10-20-20= -50m. At which point, the club would have contravened the regulations and be open to one or several
forms of sanctions.

At the same time, Fosun could spend another 15m now and bet the house on being promoted this season, following an exceptionally
promising start.

Alternatively, they could spend yet more now, but would then be in the position of having to sell players next summer in order
to come within the rules for spending again. Both the last two options contain an element of risk, with the latter in an higher order
of risk category.

My understanding of Fosun's strategic outlook is that they will not break any rules over spending, as they will not want to either risk
a backlash from the authorities and/or other clubs worried by the potential emergence of a rival to the top group, nor acquire a
reputation for the Chinese to flout rules. The Chinese form of corporatism is increasingly sensitive to the question of reputation as
they move into a period of intense international expansion on many fronts.

So in a sense both perspectives of Wolves being concerned about FFP, and of weighing up one more major cash outlay this season, can
both be true: whichever outcome occurs depends on the degree of risk Fosun are prepared to take in current, very auspicious circumstances.

 

[Johnny75]

Your figures are just made up Joe. You have no idea on the losses and are simply guessing at them without any foundations. I will point you in the direction of our very own Deutsch Wolf's excellent blog here: https://oscillatingwildly.net/somebody-is-wrong-on-the-internet/

 

[Kenny]

Your figures are just made up Joe.

I guess this is why he posted - "We dont know the losses incurred by Fosun for last season or for this season, and wont know until December, (??), this year for
last season. But for the sake of argument"

 

[wolvesjoe]

I didnt claim to know the figures, but rather used reasonable estimates to illustrate Fosun's options. I have
read the blog, and it is excellent. At the same time, it is possible to develop that discussion.

 

[Tony Towner]

As has been discussed at length, projecting losses into next season are an irrelevance, we don't go up this year one of Neves or Costa or both get sold for £20m+. I think you can question the short term nature of the strategy, but FFP isn't an issue

 

[Johnny75]

I guess this is why he posted - "We dont know the losses incurred by Fosun for last season or for this season, and wont know until December, (??), this year for
last season. But for the sake of argument"

But for the sake of argument, he should have some sort of grounds for just plucking those figures out of thin air otherwise it's nonsense

 

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

He's liked Deutsch's Tweet....

https://twitter.com/OscillateWWFC/status/898109716794048513

I believe that he may be stupid enough to not realise DW's tweet was aimed at his article. He probably thought it was aimed at the club.

Very, very dim if true.

 

[Johnny75]

I didnt claim to know the figures, but rather used reasonable estimates to illustrate Fosun's options. I have
read the blog, and it is excellent. At the same time, it is possible to develop that discussion.

How did you come by those figures?

As they seem very far from reasonable to me.

 

[Del Woppio]

If we don't go up, we'll lose Neves and Costa. Transfer fees in will put us a gazillion miles away from FFP breach.

If we do go up, it doesn't matter.

 

[wolvesjoe]

As has been discussed at length, projecting losses into next season are an irrelevance, we don't go up this year one of Neves or Costa or both get sold for £20m+. I think you can question the short term nature of the strategy, but FFP isn't an issue

That's true to an extent, but doesnt take into take into account the possibility of injuries, which might devalue the sums possible.

More broadly my impression from interviews with Shi, and the general Fosun approach is that they would want to hang onto their
best players as much as they could, rather than default to a start again position.

 

[Johnny75]

I don't think we would be hanging onto Neves, Costa, Miranda or Douglas very long if we don't go up as somebody in the PL will buy them whether we want to keep them or not.

 

[Kenny]

T

More broadly my impression from interviews with Shi, and the general Fosun approach is that they would want to hang onto their
best players as much as they could, rather than default to a start again position.

We don't go up and we have zero chance of keeping hold of Costa, Ivan, Neves, Jota and Boly. So they will have to go back to Jorge Mendes and get him to persuade similar players that the Championship is where they want to be.

 

[NE66Wolf]

Would that not imply it was good?

I was taking the piss of his liking for using "Filthy" at every opportunity!

 

[machin05]

I believe that he may be stupid enough to not realise DW's tweet was aimed at his article. He probably thought it was aimed at the club.

Very, very dim if true.

Yep. I can only think that Tim hasn't read the second sentence.

 

[Johnny75]

I was taking the piss of his liking for using "Filthy" at every opportunity!

Ah right, as you were then good sir.

 

[wolvesjoe]

How did you come by those figures?

As they seem very far from reasonable to me.

Just extrapolate from the last season we do know about, (2015-6). Add in significant spending on transfer fees, (even if amortised in accounting terms), wages and loans
and you get to something in the region of the estimates I used. As I said, the figures are just a way of illustrating the process.

 

[Tony Towner]

Yep. I can only think that Tim hasn't read the second sentence.

I don't know, he does often 'like' criticism in an ironic way, he'll know it's DW so will be aware of his opinion of him.

 

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

I don't know, he does often 'like' criticism in an ironic way, he'll know it's DW so will be aware of his opinion of him.

I wonder if this Q&A showdown between them will ever take place? Would love to see that.

 

[wolvesjoe]

We don't go up and we have zero chance of keeping hold of Costa, Ivan, Neves, Jota and Boly. So they will have to go back to Jorge Mendes and get him to persuade similar players that the Championship is where they want to be.

I do think Fosun would be opposed to that level of disruption of a team that has just been put together, if they could. For good reason.