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Coronavirus

Interesting that you seem to be focusing on the younger people not isolating. From social media, and certainly from what I saw in co-op yesterday, it seems to be people 50-60 and above behaving like idiots.

Looking out of my window, as I do a lot working from home, I only see older people walking their dogs in groups.

Yep, my experience too.

As for East v West, it's very different having civil obedience and sense of duty without enforcement as opposed to being forced to at gunpoint.
 
Yeah, I'm seeing a huge age divide in attitudes as well. Nearly everyone I know in their 20s or 30s is tearing their hair out trying to get their parents to understand just how bad it is. Mine were still planning on going on holiday to Cuba up until a week and a half ago, while I have aunts and uncles in their late-60s and older who are still going out to shop, play golf, visit friends... it's so frustrating. I keep having to run through basic facts about transmission, the trends and evidence from elsewhere, the studies and modelling, and the fact that the UK has been an international outlier for weeks now, before it starts to sink in just how bad things are going to be. Most other countries saw what happened to Italy and put in place measures to flatten the curve more pro-actively; the UK appears to have seen what happened and said, "yeah, we'll have some of that, sounds great". Meanwhile, the mutual aid groups that have sprung up around the country to organise community responses are, from what I've seen, mostly being run by people in their 40s or younger. But overall, I don't really blame any one age group more than another, because while stupidity age-blind, this really is a direct result of how the government response to this has been to leave final choices in individual hands. Not forcing closures, but "urging". Not enforcing curfews, but "suggesting" people don't see their mum on mother's day (and then u-turning yet again and releasing a last-minute plea in the Sunday papers, which, oh yeah, people are going to be going out to go and buy!). I think it's dangerous to buy into the idea that it's specific individuals who are responsible for store shelves being empty, or new infection clusters appearing in certain areas, or people fleeing out the cities to the countryside and overwhelming health services in villages and towns. These are predictable behaviours, and it is an incredible failure of political leadership not to plan accordingly.

Down here in London, there's also a really clear divide by class as well as age. Wealthier areas are quieter, poorer areas are just as busy, largely I assume because for many people WFH/avoiding going out isn't financially possible - but the parks are busier than usual everywhere. There's an outdoor gym near me - nothing fancy, a few pull-up bars and things - but there must have been 30 people using them yesterday, including different personal trainers turning up throughout the day to lead various small workout classes. Large and small groups in close proximity, spotting each other, etc., it's madness. Every time I walk past someone on the pavement with the dog I take a swerve to avoid passing too close, and most people look at me like I'm mental. The kinds of mass changes in behaviour we need to see just haven't happened yet at the right kinds of scale, and people seem to still be trying to redirect their energy towards still doing group activities, just not in the places that are closed. Can't go to the gym? We'll all go to the park instead. Can't go to a restaurant for lunch? Let's have a picnic, or go around a friend's.

Everything I'm hearing and seeing is making me more and more worried, and angry, every day. The actual science of transmission, and the necessary steps to prevent it, isn't getting through, because there's just no coordinated and consistent comms strategy from government and health authorities. We should have been ordering ventilators back in January, not waiting until March to put together some ramshackle cosplay of plowshares-to-swords. Same for increasing supplies of testing kits, masks, gloves, etc., as well as explaining clearly what terms like "herd immunity", "social distancing", "quarantine", etc., mean, over and over again. Explain the different levels of lockdown, and make it really, really fucking simple. Traffic lights, maybe - green is normal, yellow is only take necessary trips outside the home, red is shelter in place (it would need to be more detailed than that, but you get the idea). When you get the severity of the situation across, you don't need to turn your country into a police state because you generate informed consent. All this talk of it being an inherent difference in east vs west culture, a reflection of conformity vs individuality, is wrong - it's the UK, the US, and the Dutch vs East Asia and the rest of the West, and the cultural cues involved here come from the top (France seems to be handling its lockdown fine, without welding people inside like China has!). It's down to recent outbreaks like SARS that wearing face masks is normalised in East Asia, and for why their institutions were more prepared to engage in the kinds of mass public health interventions necessary. By contrast, the NHS and government have conducted three separate pandemic wargame exercises over the last decade, and each of them have found the exact shortages of beds and equipment - and patterns of deaths - as we're seeing, but nothing was done. The Red Cross said this would happen in 2017, and nothing was done. Instead, more cuts. I wish the media would stop being so deferential, stop talking about how "impressive" Rishi Sunak looks, and actually hold the people with the power to do something to account for once. We had four years of Brexit being treated like a party political drama and it made everything a gazillion times worse, and the same thing's happening again here.
 
Government have been led by science, deferring blame to government isn't taking responsibility its passing it on and then moaning about it.

If you self isolate then you've done your bit. Others aren't and their cuntery will be remembered forever as is the case with social media, including the clowns on that JOE video clip.

It is worth noting that GTech and a large section of formula one teams are working together and have a working prototype of a manufacturable ventilator. That's pretty damn quick and shows the UK is one of the best at innovation, manufacturing and collaboration, something China and many countries in the EU struggle with.

Of course F1 have previous on this as they built baby incubators for GOSH and Alder Hay in the last decade as well as identifying risk in materinity and ICU.

I feel we have a handle on this and at least we have a government that has acknowledged their mistake and are now learning from it.
 
Government have been led by science, deferring blame to government isn't taking responsibility its passing it on and then moaning about it.

If you self isolate then you've done your bit. Others aren't and their cuntery will be remembered forever as is the case with social media, including the clowns on that JOE video clip.

It is worth noting that GTech and a large section of formula one teams are working together and have a working prototype of a manufacturable ventilator. That's pretty damn quick and shows the UK is one of the best at innovation, manufacturing and collaboration, something China and many countries in the EU struggle with.

Of course F1 have previous on this as they built baby incubators for GOSH and Alder Hay in the last decade as well as identifying risk in materinity and ICU.

I feel we have a handle on this and at least we have a government that has acknowledged their mistake and are now learning from it.

Sorry, this is just a really, really bad way to think about what's happening. There's no such thing as being "led by science" - I've spent my career working in science media and comms, a sector the entire purpose of which is to either figure out how to translate scientific knowledge into public policy, or to hold those translations to account.

The science hasn't changed in all this, but what has changed are government decisions - and every kind of decision a politician takes is by definition political. We knew back in January the scale of what was coming, and celebrating some rapid ventilator prototyping as "showing the UK is one of the best at innovation" is insane. Global pandemics require global responses. The economic and logistical issues here demand intense coordination across borders, including the sharing of resources, research, and equipment. It cannot be left to trusting people "do their bit". The only kind of response that is effective is at scale, because pandemics are crises of scale. Relying on some kind of patriotic, British, inventive gumption to Heath Robinson our way out of this is a) not going to work at the speed we need, and b) only necessary because the government didn't respond to known facts and science effectively months ago, let alone weeks.

We should absolutely be holding those with the power to do something to account in all circumstances, but especially in times like this. If you feel that the government has a handle on this, you're going to be very, very shocked by what's going to happen in the next two weeks. When Italy was at the point in the upward curve the UK is at now, it was already under more severe lockdown. Italy is now the best case scenario for the UK, and it is more than likely it will be worse.
 
Also, they haven't actually changed course properly, because the advice is still so contradictory and vague. They certainly haven't apologised for it, either. The measures put in place in response are also still inconsistent in their likely effectiveness.

You can't expect an appropriate change in public behaviour when your comms lines flip-flop rapidly day-to-day.
 
Italy is now the best case scenario for the UK, and it is more than likely it will be worse.

Based on what?

Legitimately, I don't know what this statement is based on.
 
I feel we have a handle on this and at least we have a government that has acknowledged their mistake and are now learning from it.

My main critiscm is directed at Boris and his ability to say the wrong thing, clearly before someone has had to tell him to shut up his advice is bollockss. For example proudly telling the viewers of day time TV he was shaking hands with everyone and would continue to do so...then having to stand at his presser and tell everyone don't shake hands. 2 days ago he is saying will be popping out to see his Mum then having to appeal via the press for people not to go and see their own Mums.
His Dad doesn't help the situation when he goes on to National TV saing he will go the pub if he wants.

When Boris isn't speaking, I believe the message being given is clear. The help being given has been very good and if they step up and support the self employed it will step up to excellant but until Boris can find a way not saying the first thing that pops into head, things would be a lot better
 
Also, they haven't actually changed course properly, because the advice is still so contradictory and vague. They certainly haven't apologised for it, either. The measures put in place in response are also still inconsistent in their likely effectiveness.

You can't expect an appropriate change in public behaviour when your comms lines flip-flop rapidly day-to-day.

What's flip-floped? The advice has been pretty clear and consistent to me.

Stay the fuck at home if you can being the overarching piece and if people did that we'd be ok
 
had my first day out of the house today since monday.
A 3k walk down to the little supermarket in the harbour and it was obvious with all the cars parked in and around summer houses that we have a serious influx from Athens in the village.
At the little supermarket my pal Vaso who runs it is wearing gloves and a mask, as she should bless her, and all the locals go in one at a time and shop.
Then comes the two 80 to 85 year olds from Athens, bowl in and are standing beside me at the payment point.
I asked them what are they doing and couldn't they wait outside two minutes while i paid up. then the old guy proceeded to rant, first after touching all the cabbages that they were not firm enough, then that the whole thing is a joke, a load of bollocks and just the government taking the piss.
He had a paper in his hand and i asked him what about all the deaths all over the world so far, and he said if i had a brain i would see this was all a load of bollocks..............
I took the paper out of his hand hit him over the head with it and told him that if he had a brain he would go home, read the paper and never leave his house again, or better still go back to Athens,
He said.....i have been here five days and there's nothing wrong with me or the wife (who was busy feeling all the tomatoes. Vaso the owner and i just looked at each other and i left. she is too nice to throw them out,............ good job it isn't my supermarket or the doddery old fucker wouldn't have landed yet
He is a classic older generation Greek who believe that having thrown out the Junta in 1974 no one, not police or government or god will tell them what to do.
Despair, you can only despair.
 
Sorry, this is just a really, really bad way to think about what's happening. There's no such thing as being "led by science" - I've spent my career working in science media and comms, a sector the entire purpose of which is to either figure out how to translate scientific knowledge into public policy, or to hold those translations to account.

The science hasn't changed in all this, but what has changed are government decisions - and every kind of decision a politician takes is by definition political. We knew back in January the scale of what was coming, and celebrating some rapid ventilator prototyping as "showing the UK is one of the best at innovation" is insane. Global pandemics require global responses. The economic and logistical issues here demand intense coordination across borders, including the sharing of resources, research, and equipment. It cannot be left to trusting people "do their bit". The only kind of response that is effective is at scale, because pandemics are crises of scale. Relying on some kind of patriotic, British, inventive gumption to Heath Robinson our way out of this is a) not going to work at the speed we need, and b) only necessary because the government didn't respond to known facts and science effectively months ago, let alone weeks.

We should absolutely be holding those with the power to do something to account in all circumstances, but especially in times like this. If you feel that the government has a handle on this, you're going to be very, very shocked by what's going to happen in the next two weeks. When Italy was at the point in the upward curve the UK is at now, it was already under more severe lockdown. Italy is now the best case scenario for the UK, and it is more than likely it will be worse.

Thats a horrendously negative way of looking at things and describing the innovation as Heath Robinson is ridiculous in your extreme and frankly hysterical response.

I really do hate fucking socialists.
 
When Boris isn't speaking, I believe the message being given is clear. The help being given has been very good and if they step up and support the self employed it will step up to excellant but until Boris can find a way not saying the first thing that pops into head, things would be a lot better

Oh, and bin off Captain Incel from whichever basement he's commandeered. What kind of background does he have to lead any response, he might think he is a scientific genius but he has no formal grounding in it at all. I've seen plenty of karaoke singers who think they're Tom Jones, doesn't mean they are.
 
Based on what?

Legitimately, I don't know what this statement is based on.

Simplest way to illustrate it is like this:

Italy by 7th March - 5,061 cases and 233 deaths
UK by 21 March - 5,018 cases and 233 deaths

The 8th of March was when local quarantines (which were locally-concentrated but rigorously enforced) in Lombardy were expanded to the whole region. The lockdown was expanded to the rest of the country on the 9th. The UK hasn't even reached the point of locally-enforced lockdowns. The healthcare system there also had more slack in it to begin with than the NHS has, particularly in Lombardy, in terms of things like funding per head, nurses per bed, intensive care capacity, etc.
 
Thats a horrendously negative way of looking at things and describing the innovation as Heath Robinson is ridiculous in your extreme and frankly hysterical response.

I really do hate fucking socialists.

I really hope you, nor anybody close to you, is seriously affected or killed by this. Peace.
 
Based on what?

Legitimately, I don't know what this statement is based on.

The mortality curve here is steeper than Italy's was at the same stage. Our infection is lower, but we're basically only testing people who are in hospital. And celebrities, naturally
 
The only real thing we have in our favour over Italy is we don't have the same "multiple generations under one roof" family cohabitation thing, but it's a hell of a gamble to think that's enough to stop us getting hitting 1k+ dead per day within the next fortnight.
 
The only real thing we have in our favour over Italy is we don't have the same "multiple generations under one roof" family cohabitation thing, but it's a hell of a gamble to think that's enough to stop us getting hitting 1k+ dead per day within the next fortnight.
Especially when we have a significantly higher population density too.

272 per square Km v 200 per square KM
 
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