Coronavirus

[Johnny75]

Simplest way to illustrate it is like this:

Italy by 7th March - 5,061 cases and 233 deaths
UK by 21 March - 5,018 cases and 233 deaths

The 8th of March was when local quarantines (which were locally-concentrated but rigorously enforced) in Lombardy were expanded to the whole region. The lockdown was expanded to the rest of the country on the 9th. The UK hasn't even reached the point of locally-enforced lockdowns. The healthcare system there also had more slack in it to begin with than the NHS has, particularly in Lombardy, in terms of things like funding per head, nurses per bed, intensive care capacity, etc.

Do you have figures for any of this?

From what I've seen we're exactly the same as Italy and funding per head has no bearing on death rate (which is the only measure worth looking at)

 

[Johnny75]

I really hope you, nor anybody close to you, is seriously affected or killed by this. Peace.

Nor you. Peace.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Well we're certainly well behind on critical care beds.

 

[Johnny75]

Good job we're trying to manufacture more then.

And kudos to Fosun for their contribution too. The more businesses we can get building care beds now the better.

 

[Kenny]

About right

 

[Tony Towner]

Iceland are testing everyone and therefore unsurprising have the highest infection rate per % of population across the world. The concerning part is 50% of those testing positive don't have any symptoms

 

[Sniffer]

Is there a correlation in the critical care beds in Germany and their low death rates as it seems strange that they have a low death rate compared to elsewhere. ?

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Is there a correlation in the critical care beds in Germany and their low death rates as it seems strange that they have a low death rate compared to elsewhere. ?

You would imagine that yes, there is.

Similarly Belgium lockdowned very quickly and have a good amount of ICU beds.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Germany are only calling it a coronavirus death if there are no other factors and the virus must have caused it. Whereas everyone else goes for it's a corona-related death with an underlying health issue.

 

[AndyWolves]

Iceland are testing everyone and therefore unsurprising have the highest infection rate per % of population across the world. The concerning part is 50% of those testing positive don't have any symptoms

You know, we might end up with the herd immunity / mitigation strategy after all

 

[Papper]

The game changer will be the test that gives an idea of who is carrying the anti-bodies ie they've had it, recovered and have immunity. The world then starts to return to normal given there is a train of thought that many had this virus long before China opened up. Essentially everybody will need to be tested.

- It is a virus that speeds up the death of those with underlying conditions - Influenza is the same if there is no vaccine.
- The majority of people have mild/moderate symptoms. See the celebrity infectees.
- There is a section of vulnerable in society who have a high risk of dying

It is not rocket science to suggest to somebody that they do not go near a vulnerable person if they, the ' healthier ' person has a risk of contracting the virus - so work from that.

 

[AndyWolves]

The game changer will be the test that gives an idea of who is carrying the anti-bodies ie they've had it, recovered and have immunity. The world then starts to return to normal given there is a train of thought that many had this virus long before China opened up. Essentially everybody will need to be tested.

- It is a virus that speeds up the death of those with underlying conditions - Influenza is the same if there is no vaccine.
- The majority of people have mild/moderate symptoms. See the celebrity infectees.
- There is a section of vulnerable in society who have a high risk of dying

It is not rocket science to suggest to somebody that they do not go near a vulnerable person if they, the ' healthier ' person has a risk of contracting the virus - so work from that.

I posted the paper that discussed this a few days ago. I believe the test is weeks away rather than months.

Scaling will be a challenge, I'd think frontline NHS workers will be first and then the identified key workers

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Germany are only calling it a coronavirus death if there are no other factors and the virus must have caused it. Whereas everyone else goes for it's a corona-related death with an underlying health issue.

I read that somewhere too, however I haven't seen any formal mention of it.

For example in this article, no mention?

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

 

[Papper]

You know, we might end up with the herd immunity / mitigation strategy after all

You can have an herd immunity amongst the ' strongest ' in society but if those people are in contact with vulnerable you are completely fucked and get 250k hospitalised and dead. If you have no contact with a vulnerable person then by and large they should be able to do what they like in the knowledge they may get laid down for a few days. How you communicate and effect a strategy at isolating the vulnerable appears to me an impossible task. There is an excellent article by Peter Hitchens which sort of outlines the authoritarian dilemma that we face.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

You are right EP. I know I have heard it but I cannot for the life of me remember where.

 

[arklowolf]

Iceland are testing everyone and therefore unsurprising have the highest infection rate per % of population across the world. The concerning part is 50% of those testing positive don't have any symptoms

I'm not questioning your figures/statement.
How do people have 'no symptoms'?
Could it be because they have immunity from a previous bout, which they had before the virus was acknowledged as being present?
I am suspicious that the virus was abroad well before the Chinese admit it was ie early December.
Or perhaps they have no symptoms because they have immunity from a similar coronavirus?
I don't know but am asking the question.

 

[arklowolf]

DP

 

[Tony Towner]

Source here:

celand currently has the highest per capita coronavirus infection rate in the world. But that’s not a bad thing. Because of its small population it is testing everybody, revealing a lot about the virus. Eg, half of all carriers exhibit no symptoms at all. https://t.co/ZPxLQuzLSm

 

[Papper]

I posted the paper that discussed this a few days ago. I believe the test is weeks away rather than months.

Scaling will be a challenge, I'd think frontline NHS workers will be first and then the identified key workers

Yes I remember. IMO it is far more important than a test that says you are positive or negative. By and large we are a far healthier society than those who faced Spanish flu. You cannot ignore the socio/economic impact so it is essential that everything possible to get life back on track is done - give it a couple of months and I think this will happen providing those tests appear.

 

[playtheace]

Simplest way to illustrate it is like this:

Italy by 7th March - 5,061 cases and 233 deaths
UK by 21 March - 5,018 cases and 233 deaths

The 8th of March was when local quarantines (which were locally-concentrated but rigorously enforced) in Lombardy were expanded to the whole region. The lockdown was expanded to the rest of the country on the 9th. The UK hasn't even reached the point of locally-enforced lockdowns. The healthcare system there also had more slack in it to begin with than the NHS has, particularly in Lombardy, in terms of things like funding per head, nurses per bed, intensive care capacity, etc.

Don't know if you saw the link i put up yesterday but Italians in the Lombardy region still arent listening.
People in parks and visiting people.