Coronavirus

[Freddeno]

It is reported today though that 9.85 percent of our population has had the virus, that is a lot..so some anti bodies and t-cells i guess too

 

[SSB]

Doubled jabbed. Did notice in the 15 waiting room at the end they had the biggest flat-screen TV I've ever seen. Would have been great for the match tomorrow night!

 

[sycophantia]

Have those variants come from the respective countries or is it where the variant was first identified?

Good point

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-cases_by_specimen_date_age_demographics

Heatmap shows most cases are around the 20-40 year olds yet hospitalisations, ventilations and deaths are all rising.

Increasing cases will surely result in an increase in those metrics. 2,000 in hospital now in England, 400 admitted on Friday.

Doubling time is 12 days, in less than 2 weeks we'll be at 800 admissions per day. If things stay the same (they won't) at 400 admissions per day there'll be around 5,000 people admitted to hospital in that time.

It's not like we're smashing through vaccines at the moment either.

You are panicking yourself. Deaths are not rising.

 

[AndyWolves]

You are panicking yourself. Deaths are not rising.

They are, but they're still insignificant. It's not the deaths that really concerns me (as callous as that sounds), it's the sheer volume of Covid patients who will need hospital that concerns me.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It’s clear the decision is to just accept that. Hospitalisation rates have risen but at nowhere near the scale of October and November.

 

[AndyWolves]

What's the upper bound on expected daily cases? A small percentage of them will require hospital.

If the upper bound is 200k we're probably going to be ok, if it's 500k then we might have a problem.

 

[sycophantia]

As I said earlier (seems like days) my only concern is a rise in more dangerous mutations, but I suppose we have to take a chance at some stage....feels like we're a world guinea pig.
As for cases versus hospitalizations, we'll just have to see, I suspect they will rise but not at a rate that will overwhelm the nhs.. if it does then we just go back into lockdown

 

[Freddeno]

If I can speak for myself, I had a distant friend that almost died, but he is fine now..for me is the thing to get "post covid" that affects brain and other things and take very long time to get out of..dont know if you have science on that in the UK but here in Sweden we are looking into that now..and that could happen even if you are not hospitalised.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

What's the upper bound on expected daily cases? A small percentage of them will require hospital.

If the upper bound is 200k we're probably going to be ok, if it's 500k then we might have a problem.

500k per day would be statistically hugely unlikely as such a large percentage of the adult population are vaccinated.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The worst day for cases in the autumn wave was 70k. Without any vaccine. 500k is just not going to happen. Frankly, neither is 200k.

 

[AndyWolves]

The worst day for cases in the autumn wave was 70k. Without any vaccine. 500k is just not going to happen. Frankly, neither is 200k.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412427683129139204

50,000 cases by the end of July with current restrictions. That growth rate looks pretty steep, removing restrictions won't flatten that growth rate.

Edit. With the current doubling time we'd be on 100,000 cases two weeks into August

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

We are going nowhere near the numbers you are worrying about. Even Whitty himself said 50k was a top end estimate for two weeks time. Plus as has been said until people are blue in the face case numbers are irrelevant now. It’s hospital numbers that matter.

 

[Tony Towner]

Javid has said 100k a day is on the cards

 

[Tredman]

100k is feasible, though schools close in 2 weeks.

 

[PuntsWolf]

You want permamanent lockdown then Andy. Cases are rising rapidly despite restrictions. Close the schools, close the shops, close hospitality, essential work only. Only way to control the cases

 

[AndyWolves]

You want permamanent lockdown then Andy. Cases are rising rapidly despite restrictions. Close the schools, close the shops, close hospitality, essential work only. Only way to control the cases

Have I said that?

All I want is to know what the government think will happen, evidence of their working if you will.

 

[AndyWolves]

We are going nowhere near the numbers you are worrying about. Even Whitty himself said 50k was a top end estimate for two weeks time. Plus as has been said until people are blue in the face case numbers are irrelevant now. It’s hospital numbers that matter.

Hospital numbers are a product of cases though surely?

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Javid has said 100k a day is on the cards

Whitty was talking about in two weeks when we bin restrictions

 

[sycophantia]

Have I said that?

All I want is to know what the government think will happen, evidence of their working if you will.

They have haven't they? They think cases will be 50,000 a day in a few weeks, possibly 100,000 by August and hospitalisations, deaths will go up but not by an uncontrollable level.....thats what I've taken it to mean anyway.