Coronavirus

[Tredman]

They are not showing the models as they are suggested hospitalisations would be way higher now than they are - they don't want people to drop restrictions now, rather wait and verify in the next week or so.

 

[PuntsWolf]

You can do basic modelling yourself. Which will give you a ball park.

0.3% of people died WITH it in a unvaccinated population c. 200k
Vaccines lower that number further, let’s say 90% effective at preventing death. - 20k
No one would bat an eyelid to that in a non Covid year. That’s prettt much a worst case scenario if 100% of the population were infected.

And let’s be honest, if you are double vaccinated and still dying OF Covid then you were fucked anyway. You can’t really help people much more than that beyond locking people indoors forever. Old people die of respiratory illnesses, you can’t stop it.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Just a few more weeks.

It's absolutely crippling numerous industries, people saying "well I'm ok so I'm happy to carry on as we are" is plain ignorant I'm afraid.

 

[PuntsWolf]

And before people tell me “not only old people die of Covid”, last time I checked the median was 83 and the average was 80

 

[AndyWolves]

Really rough maths time

23,000 cases currently gives us around 325 hospital admissions per day.

If it grows linearly to around 50,000 cases that would be around 650 hospital admissions per day. *7 = 4,500 ish per week

*4 for a month gives you 18,800 new hospital admissions in month

The first wave peaked at around 19,000 in hospital.

 

[Tredman]

Really rough maths time

23,000 cases currently gives us around 325 hospital admissions per day.

If it grows linearly to around 50,000 cases that would be around 650 hospital admissions per day. *7 = 4,500 ish per week

*4 for a month gives you 18,800 new hospital admissions in month

The first wave peaked at around 19,000 in hospital.

Better maths here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412183426128560128

 

[Sniffer]

Really rough maths time

23,000 cases currently gives us around 325 hospital admissions per day.

If it grows linearly to around 50,000 cases that would be around 650 hospital admissions per day. *7 = 4,500 ish per week

*4 for a month gives you 18,800 new hospital admissions in month

The first wave peaked at around 19,000 in hospital.

The difference now is that people who are being admitted to hospital tend to leave quicker than they did previously.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

And critically, they're not leaving in a hearse.

If you're that fucking anxious about it then don't leave the house. The rest of us have had enough.

 

[BillyDee]

In January ~1 in 60 cases lead to death. Currently it is less than 1 in 1000.

 

[AndyWolves]

And critically, they're not leaving in a hearse.

If you're that fucking anxious about it then don't leave the house. The rest of us have had enough.

I'm not that fucking anxious, I'm absolutely fine with rolling back the restrictions on a personal level. I'm doubled jabbed and not in a risk category, and neither is anyone I know or care about.

What I don't see an answer to is how many hospitalisations this will produce and thus load on the NHS. There is no point doing this if the NHS gets smashed again.

BoJo has mismanaged every single aspect of Covid, forgive me for being doubtful that he's suddenly got something right.

 

[AndyWolves]

Better maths here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412183426128560128

8-20k hospital admissions per week at the peak doesn't sound great.

 

[sycophantia]

I'm broadly happy with yesterdays announcements but am concerned about variants. Yes I know there are always mutations and most of them are not a problem, however it seems to me the variants that have caused issues have mainly come from areas where the virus has been rife and out of control e.g. Kent (southern bastards) India, Brazil, South Africa. Now I know fuck all and it may be if we just let the virus run its course here, we won't get anymore mutations or if we do, they won't be a problem and by Christmas we'll all have herd immunity.......doesn't stop me being nervous about it though.

 

[James]

I’m happy with yesterday’s announcement as with what’s been said before we have a lot of industry’s being crippled by the restrictions. I am pleased with the removal of a mandatory requirement of face coverings to a recommended but optional state as I feel it will remove the hassel & greif that a lot of workers are getting.

 

[b3h]

As I sit here in a corner away from everyone with a mask on. If i take it off, a mask alarm goes off and a big fat nurse comes and shouts at me.

 

[James]

As I sit here in a corner away from everyone with a mask on. If i take it off, a mask alarm goes off and a big fat nurse comes and shouts at me.

This one?



Best to play it safe and put it back on.

 

[BillyDee]

From 16th August the double jabbed will not have to self isolate after close contact with a positive case.

 

[sycophantia]

From 16th August the double jabbed will not have to self isolate after close contact with a positive case.

And under 18's

 

[machin05]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412169750516572160

 

[Del Woppio]

8-20k hospital admissions per week at the peak doesn't sound great.

But all delaying any further does, is makes that number even higher, unless we never unlockdown again. Covid's always going to be here, and it's always going to make people sick, and quite a few people will die from it. But quite a few people die of lots of things that we can't 100% protect against. We've taken every reasonable measure, and mitigated as best we can. It's done now. It can't go on any longer. If people choose not to be protected, or even if the protection fails them, then we're at the point now where it's just unlucky, and condolences. We can't just change the fact that people get ill and die.

 

[AndyWolves]

But all delaying any further does, is makes that number even higher, unless we never unlockdown again. Covid's always going to be here, and it's always going to make people sick, and quite a few people will die from it. But quite a few people die of lots of things that we can't 100% protect against. We've taken every reasonable measure, and mitigated as best we can. It's done now. It can't go on any longer. If people choose not to be protected, or even if the protection fails them, then we're at the point now where it's just unlucky, and condolences. We can't just change the fact that people get ill and die.

I'm not looking for save everyone, I have a concern that removing all restrictions whilst cases, hospitalisations, patients requiring ventilation and deaths are all rising isn't the smartest move in the book.

If there are some models which show hospitalisations won't be too bad and the NHS can cope, great, the ones I've looked at so far suggest (as above) between 8k-20k hospitalisations per week. I don't see that as sustainable, do you honestly have no concerns about what will happen to the NHS under such load?

Removing all restrictions and leaving it up to Joe public to decide if they should wear masks etc is BoJo absolving the govt (again!) of responsibility for this.

For the record, prior to Delta I was all for removal of restrictions. Also, I'm not in anyway concerned about Covid from a personal perspective.