Coronavirus

[Paddingtonwolf]

Hospital numbers are a product of cases though surely?

Without a vaccine absolutely. With a vaccine far less so. The number is far lower.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Have I said that?

All I want is to know what the government think will happen, evidence of their working if you will.

You are basically insinuating it. You keep saying your are worried about cases rising. The only way to stop that is strict lockdown.

We are accepting cases will rise. We are trusting the vaccine will work to prevent it being a problem. “If not now, when”. It’s literally the best time for all the reasons I discussed previously.

If the vaccines don’t work we are fucked regardless and we have wasted 18 months. We will just have to crack on for that herd immunity and accept the losses. Natural selection

 

[AndyWolves]

You are basically insinuating it. You keep saying your are worried about cases rising. The only way to stop that is strict lockdown.

We are accepting cases will rise. We are trusting the vaccine will work to prevent it being a problem. “If not now, when”. It’s literally the best time for all the reasons I discussed previously.

If the vaccines don’t work we are fucked regardless and we have wasted 18 months. We will just have to crack on for that herd immunity and accept the losses. Natural selection

If that's how you've interpreted there isn't much I can do.

I'm asking the question because I remain unconvinced that removing all the restrictions in one go is the right thing to do. I certainly haven't said I would like strict lockdown as a way of mitigating, I have said that maybe some restrictions could remain (for example, masks indoors, public transport etc).

I've said many times that neither I nor anyone I care about is particularly at risk from covid.

 

[Sniffer]

Keeping the isolation restrictions in place now whilst cases are rising so quickly is another recipe for disaster for business. Pubs are already being forced to close down due to cases/links to cases and other businesses will be suffering too due to the policy.

You could be talking about a couple of million people isolating over the next few weeks.

 

[PuntsWolf]

If that's how you've interpreted there isn't much I can do.

I'm asking the question because I remain unconvinced that removing all the restrictions in one go is the right thing to do. I certainly haven't said I would like strict lockdown as a way of mitigating, I have said that maybe some restrictions could remain (for example, masks indoors, public transport etc).

I've said many times that neither I nor anyone I care about is particularly at risk from covid.

Well what you’re saying isn’t making sense. The only Solution to your problem is strict lockdown. Current restrictions are literally doing nothing to prevent cases, as proven by your data.

So there is no point keeping half arsed measures achieving nothing Covid wise, whilst damaging lots of other aspects of life/society.

High rate of infection now in the summer now is literally the goal. The only time better is next June with another year of restrictions, another vaccine rollout for 65m people, and another variant which the vaccine doesn’t work against. Repeat. If we could vaccinate 65m people in one day then we’d fix it. We can’t

 

[b3h]

Last time I coded influenza was before covid. Funny ay it?

 

[AndyWolves]

Well what you’re saying isn’t making sense. The only Solution to your problem is strict lockdown. Current restrictions are literally doing nothing to prevent cases, as proven by your data.

So there is no point keeping half arsed measures achieving nothing Covid wise, whilst damaging lots of other aspects of life/society.

High rate of infection now in the summer now is literally the goal. The only time better is next June with another year of restrictions, another vaccine rollout for 65m people, and another variant which the vaccine doesn’t work against. Repeat. If we could vaccinate 65m people in one day then we’d fix it. We can’t

You seriously think current restrictions are doing nothing to prevent the spread of Covid?

As is said, we don't have to go all or nothing, some restrictions can be repealed and others remain.

What will the peak daily infections look like post July 19th? What will peak hospitalisations look like post July 19th? Do you know the answers to either of these?

 

[BillyDee]

No. No one does. What we do know is that there are considerably less hospitalisations per cases and considerably less deaths per hospitalisations.

 

[AndyWolves]

No. No one does. What we do know is that there are considerably less hospitalisations per cases and considerably less deaths per hospitalisations.

If we dont know how many daily hospitalisations we are expecting how do we know we can cope?

 

[BillyDee]

We don't have a magic crystal ball, sorry. They don't exist

 

[AndyWolves]

We don't have a magic crystal ball, sorry. They don't exist

I guess it all be fine then

 

[BillyDee]

Hopefully, yes. If you read other people's posts you would find reasons not to go all out doom-mongering.

 

[PuntsWolf]

You seriously think current restrictions are doing nothing to prevent the spread of Covid?

As is said, we don't have to go all or nothing, some restrictions can be repealed and others remain.

What will the peak daily infections look like post July 19th? What will peak hospitalisations look like post July 19th? Do you know the answers to either of these?

I don’t think they are doing much no. I’m not going to start hugging and kissing randomers beyond July 19th. People who will are already doing it.

I don’t know what they will look like no, but what I do know is they will be better now than any other point in the next 11 months. May even be the best it will ever be as we don’t know what variants will be like, public disobedience, further vaccine refusal etc.

 

[AndyWolves]

Hopefully, yes. If you read other people's posts you would find reasons not to go all out doom-mongering.

Trying to find out expected levels of infection and hospitalisations is not doom-mongering.

 

[Tredman]

Trying to find out expected levels of infection and hospitalisations is not doom-mongering.

But there is no definitive answer yet, there are plenty of models you can find it you have a look - most suggest it will not get to a critical level.

As above though, pretty much all models say do this now or after the winter. The latter is pretty unacceptable to most people

 

[AndyWolves]

I don’t think they are doing much no. I’m not going to start hugging and kissing randomers beyond July 19th. People who will are already doing it.

I don’t know what they will look like no, but what I do know is they will be better now than any other point in the next 11 months. May even be the best it will ever be as we don’t know what variants will be like, public disobedience, further vaccine refusal etc.

Its not hugging and kissing though is it? It's employees going back into the office, commuting, pubs opening up, not wearing masks, no social distancing etc.

I agree the links between cases and hospitalisations is lower than ever (deaths will be pretty small).

R is currently around 1.5, if we have an estimate of what R will look like post July 19th brilliant

 

[Tredman]

You can extrapolate a fair bit from this yourself:

 

[AndyWolves]

You can extrapolate a fair bit from this yourself: View attachment 4014

I've seen that, I don't know how to extrapolate the first graph without knowing the R though

 

[PuntsWolf]

Its not hugging and kissing though is it? It's employees going back into the office, commuting, pubs opening up, not wearing masks, no social distancing etc.

I honestly don’t think it will make much difference no, obviously greater than zero though. I don’t think offices will be a problem, I don’t expect pubs to be either. Commuting on packed trains/tubes, possibly. But I don’t know how busy they are now or how busy they will be.

I have no evidence or data to back that up. Just what I see with my own eyes and anecdotal evidence from others and the effects that has or hasn’t had on Covid spread.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

If you don't open up hospitality now (and it isn't even a major vector in the first place) then you kill an entire sector. That is more important than watching case numbers on Twitter and fretting about "what if".

We can't stay like this forever.