Coronavirus

[Templeton Peck]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/al...-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/al...-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true

Frightening.

Can someone debunk this please? Pretty please? I don't want to believe it's true.

And when I say debunk, I don't mean just say "it's Buzfeed so it's bollocks" what aspect of the article and the report mean it isn't true?

 

[Stan Hullis]

Afraid not.

Seems we were basing our approach on the wrong disease.

https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032?s=21

 

[AndyWolves]

Frightening.

Can someone debunk this please? Pretty please? I don't want to believe it's true.

And when I say debunk, I don't mean just say "it's Buzfeed so it's bollocks" what aspect of the article and the report mean it isn't true?

It's based on a report from Imperial College which I shared further up this thread and the tweet Tredman shared

In short, a mitigation approach leaves 250k dead and a suppression approach about 20k. Neither factor in deaths as a result of a saturated health service.

Things change all the time though but it's gonna take some proper thinking to get out of it. One approach was an on/off approach to lock down which could work. 2weeks on then 2 weeks off kind of thing.

But yeah, the "herd immunity" approach isn't feasible unless we're prepared to accept significant deaths. It isn't really herd immunity it's just letting sick people die.

Radical thinking is required, maybe we isolate everyone over 50 whilst all the kids get it and then release 50-55 year olds and work through the age brackets. Whatever we go for will require a very cooperative population

 

[AndyWolves]

I'm really conflicted, I haven't agreed with much Boris has done prior to Covid19 but I'm agreeing that we're doing the right thing now.

To me it looks like they're starting to slow the rate of infection down, I don't think today's message has been a blanket ban on things more of a getting a certain percentage to reduce their exposure.

Follow this up with isolation for over 70s in a day or two and then I think we'll have a period of monitoring. If during that monitoring the numbers are higher than expected then stricter measures will be introduced. I.e. mandatory working from home, closing schools, non essential shops etc

The absolute key to all this is how many over 70s we can stop being infected. They're most likely to need hospitalisation and ICU, the more we keep them out of harm's way the higher rate of infection we can support across the rest of the population.

I'm a fucking bell end

 

[Derby Wolf]

So, predicting the future - I reckon we will now close schools either Friday or next Monday - immediately loads of people can’t work because they need to look after their kids.

Give it a month of mass isolation and a load of businesses will fold, and employees will be laid off - unless the government does similar to France and removes taxes and guarantees utilities and rent.

Call centres will end up going 9-5, and mostly servicing through messaging rather than calls.

Supermarkets will close or work largely through home deliveries, but reduced choice due to supply chain issues.

Hospitals will cancel all non emergency operations.

Care homes will struggle to get staff to look after their patients, and the death rate amongst the elderly will spike as a result

Prisons will struggle for guards, leading to lots of early releases.

Self employed people will really struggle and try to carry on - and people will still need boilers servicing etc.

Basically, lots of reductions in goods and services available.

School closures will be extended to the end of the summer holidays, or they will try and go back in three weeks, followed by a spike in cases and schools being closed again until the end of the summer holidays.

Anything I’ve missed?

Prisons won't release early necessarily, they'll have inmates on 24 hour lock up.

I haven't heard anything but I suspect that supermarkets will close Sainsbury/Tesco Local/Metro stores and have whatever staff available to work, working at the larger stores. If a town/city has multiple supermarkets close and transfer key lines of stock to one location. The closed stores becoming warehouses for the online order pickers/van drivers.

 

[Langers]

My daughter is showing symptoms and is self isolating with her brother at their mum's.

So I won't see my kids for 2 weeks - and when one of them is feeling poorly, it's a kick in the guts when I can't be with them to help.

Going to get my ex-wife's work stuff for her and take her supplies round as and when they need it.

 

[sycophantia]

My daughter is showing symptoms and is self isolating with her brother at their mum's.

So I won't see my kids for 2 weeks - and when one of them is feeling poorly, it's a kick in the guts when I can't be with them to help.

Going to get my ex-wife's work stuff for her and take her supplies round as and when they need it.

Thats shit, guess it won't be long before we all have a close relative/friend with it, good luck

 

[Boozad]

Sorry to hear that Ian, keep us updated on how she is mate.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

So looks like twelve weeks isolation on the way for Squeeze as she is severely asthmatic and therefore in the vulnerable group. Good job she can work from home.

 

[Boozad]

I’m getting prepped to work from home providing the VPN token I ordered comes through any time soon. Not definite yet but we just don’t have the office space to meet the company’s imposed social distancing regulations.

 

[Sniffer]

My daughter is showing symptoms and is self isolating with her brother at their mum's.

So I won't see my kids for 2 weeks - and when one of them is feeling poorly, it's a kick in the guts when I can't be with them to help.

Going to get my ex-wife's work stuff for her and take her supplies round as and when they need it.

I'm hoping that the evidence is correct and that the little ones will be fine Langers.

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

I'm hoping that the evidence is correct and that the little ones will be fine Langers.

Totally this. Fingers crossed for a speedy recovery for her, Langers.

I know the general consensus is that kids seem to be ok with it but if/when one of my kids get it I'm going to be stressed as hell. All the best mate.

 

[Premier Quality]

Totally this. Fingers crossed for a speedy recovery for her, Langers.

I know the general consensus is that kids seem to be ok with it but if/when one of my kids get it I'm going to be stressed as hell. All the best mate.

This absolutely - hope everyone’s kids get an incredibly mild dose.

 

[Tredman]

Good to know our MPs have got our backs

 

[Tredman]

Totally this. Fingers crossed for a speedy recovery for her, Langers.

I know the general consensus is that kids seem to be ok with it but if/when one of my kids get it I'm going to be stressed as hell. All the best mate.

I worried about this quite a lot and found a table of age by severity in Italy (I will search it out later again). Its massively skewed by age, youngest to die have been 39 and both had serious health issues. Incredibly small number of children have been hospitalised.

 

[arklowolf]

Politicians in the West should just follow China's lead and build temporary hospitals asap. If needs be get the Chinese to assist. There is no other option.
I'm sceptical about this disease only killing the old with 'underlying health issues' and it being 'relatively mild' for everyone else. That doesn't add up. It's propaganda.
This is far worse than they are letting on, if they tell us the facts there will be mass panic. Just my opinion.

 

[SLA]

Politicians in the West should just follow China's lead and build temporary hospitals asap. If needs be get the Chinese to assist. There is no other option.
I'm sceptical about this disease only killing the old with 'underlying health issues' and it being 'relatively mild' for everyone else. That doesn't add up. It's propaganda.
This is far worse than they are letting on, if they tell us the facts there will be mass panic. Just my opinion.

Based on???

 

[Aikiwolf]

I’m getting prepped to work from home providing the VPN token I ordered comes through any time soon. Not definite yet but we just don’t have the office space to meet the company’s imposed social distancing regulations.

I've been asked to wfh for the foreseeable to allow others to distance in office.

@langers sorry to hear about your little one

 

[arklowolf]

As I say it is my opinion.
Cases can't be either 'mild' or 'severe', there has to be a specrum surely?