Coronavirus

[Premier Quality]

Macrons approach is interesting

All non-essential movement to be banned from Tuesday midday for 15 days; residents must stay at home
Punishments for those flouting the regulations
Army to be used to help transport the sick to hospital
Military hospital to be used in Alsace, near German border
Borders to be closed in agreement with other European Union countries
Second round of local elections postponed
No business, regardless of size, will be allowed to fail

But then what? Maybe he’s hoping it reduces the volume of cases, and they can then go back to testing and quarantining individuals as it grows again - but presumably they will have to have these complete shutdowns every couple of months for about a year before there is enough immunity to avoid constant big outbreaks?

 

[AndyWolves]

I agree with most of this although I would like to see the measures as obligatory rather than advice, its too ambiguous as it is, also would have liked him to say they were at least looking at measures to aid people who are about to lose their jobs

I think they will make it obligatory in the fullness of time when it needs to ramp down again.

Looking at the numbers we have approx 8.8m over 70s in the UK. If we assume 25% of them will need hospitalisation (based on imperial.co.uk study) that equates to 2.2m needing hospital - a huge amount

Compare that to 7m 60-69 year olds who need 16.6% hospitalisation which require 1.1m hospital and 9m 50-59 year olds who 10% need hospitalisation which equates to 900,000. Still 2m in total though

So 16m 50-70s can be supported with less hospital resources than 8.8m over 70s. Its a shame we didn't try to set the age at over 65 rather than 70 as that reduces again by another 650,000.

All theoretical mind and I've no idea how this overlays against capacity

 

[Templeton Peck]

Yeah that’s fine, this is a labour board, etc etc, but it’s all just posturing, right? There’s a genuine crisis underway, and people are just shovelling more of the same bullshit they’ve shovelled for the last few years, it’s very sad.

This is a huge issue. We're allowed to criticise the governments handling of it. Lord knows the media won't.

 

[Kenny]

Yeah that’s fine, this is a labour board, etc etc, but it’s all just posturing, right? There’s a genuine crisis underway, and people are just shovelling more of the same bullshit they’ve shovelled for the last few years, it’s very sad.

I dont generally post much on much on issues around politics. If I feel strongly I will chip in but generally I just read. Tonight pissed me off so I joined in so no posturing from me. I know every decision will have a negative outcome and I am clueless on how you deal with this pandemic but tonight's statement was bollocks as it passed the buck away from the Government. A million miles from strong leadership and that worries me a lot.

 

[AndyWolves]

Have a read of this report from Imperial College about the difference between suppression and mitigation

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd&cshid=1584391957923

 

[Premier Quality]

This is a huge issue. We're allowed to criticise the governments handling of it. Lord knows the media won't.

It’s the usual stuff to be fair - the guardian and the I etc would hate whatever actions the government took. I assume the mail would love whatever they did. The bbc would try and stay neutral and basically avoid anything interesting. All business as usual. No changes their views regardless of what’s actually happening...

 

[Premier Quality]

I dont generally post much on much on issues around politics. If I feel strongly I will chip in but generally I just read. Tonight pissed me off so I joined in so no posturing from me. I know every decision will have a negative outcome and I am clueless on how you deal with this pandemic but tonight's statement was bollocks as it passed the buck away from the Government. A million miles from strong leadership and that worries me a lot.

That’s absolutely fair enough. What do you think should be done?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Yeah that’s fine, this is a labour board, etc etc, but it’s all just posturing, right? There’s a genuine crisis underway, and people are just shovelling more of the same bullshit they’ve shovelled for the last few years, it’s very sad.

I've had a go specifically at Johnson's non-answer to a question regarding the low paid. Which was just a campaign slogan or some crap you fire out at PMQs. It had no relevance to the question at all.

If you want to specifically defend what he said then on you go.

As I've said ad infinitum, I haven't voted Labour in very close to 10 years now.

 

[Andre]

Okay, a few things I've seen that are misinformation and need clearing up. I know you don't know me but I'll start by saying I am absolutely fascinated by conspiracy theories and why people believe them. So every piece of information I see I verify before considering it. I'm not going to reference any of this because at the moment we are still working on an informed best estimate rather than actual fact.

1: It appears people cannot catch it twice. It was reported that the young people dying were medical workers who were getting better and then going back to work, catching it again and the 'double dose' was finishing them off. Current research suggests that that is simply not true. People were recovering to the point that it appeared they had made a full recovery but in fact they were still ill and went back to work. I have seen no evidence of significant amounts of young people dying.

2: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) such as ibuprofen do appear to make it worse and should be avoided. Some health services have used these to bring down fevers but have found it to be counter-productive. If you are self-isolating at home do not take these drugs unless advised by a qualified person. You will suffer more in the short term but lets face it, long term is more important and taking them won't save your life if you were going to die anyway.

3: Animals have tested positive but the animal is not a carrier in any sense other than if I was ill and coughed on your dogs face and then it licked your face.....

I'm sure there was some other stuff but I can't remember atm! I'll keep people posted as I find out more from the qualified people I check daily.

Now for a bit of a moan. I live in Margate and am unemployed. Glenda would say I was a Nazi SS officer in a previous life. If he'd ever been to my area of Margate at any rate. After having been ill for a little while (not virus related but unemployment related) I needed to do some shopping.

No loo roll in Iceland, Morrisons or Aldi today. I've enough for another month (what's left of my hard Brexit stash) but I was just checking. Morrisons and Iceland shelves seemed pretty decently stocked but I live right near Aldi so only bought a few things in those as I don't drive. Got to Aldi and..... it's like the zombie apocalypse. No cooking oil except for the extra/extra virgin olive. Your alright if you want balsamic vinegar thou. That shelf was full. And if you like olives your in luck. No mayo, who the fuck panic buys mayo. No eggs, at all. There were cans of baked beans but nothing else. Not even canned tomatoes. Mustard: great! Grain, English and Dijon galore. Of course no pasta or rice, not even any pesto. Booze and chocolate? Go for it. And crisps/snacks. No free range chicken and I really fancied a roast chicken. Actually, no chicken at all. Bizarrely there were shed loads of rump and sirloin steaks so I'll be keeping an eye open for price reductions on them. Cheese, at least 'nice' cheese: take your pick. Fresh fruit and veg was fine at least.

I'm not at all desperate as I still have lots left from my aforementioned Brexit stash but after having not been to a supermarket for almost two weeks I was pretty shocked.

 

[Premier Quality]

I’m not going to defend what he’s said at all. Personally, I think the shutdown is too soon.

It’s a balance - the more you shutdown, the longer the issue lasts. The less you shutdown, the more people will die because the peak rises.

Personally, I think we’re erring towards the longer shutdown where I’d prefer a more middle ground.

 

[Kenny]

That’s absolutely fair enough. What do you think should be done?

On the matter that pissed me off - tell pubs, theatres etc to close for a period and not a suggestion we should avoid them. Allow those companies a chance to survive during this.
I know it's impossible to help every business but it just comes across as zero assistance to huge sector and they are left to sort it out themselves and best of British luck to you.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I’m not going to defend what he’s said at all. Personally, I think the shutdown is too soon.

It’s a balance - the more you shutdown, the longer the issue lasts. The less you shutdown, the more people will die because the peak rises.

Personally, I think we’re erring towards the longer shutdown where I’d prefer a more middle ground.

Then we agree, if they do/say something that you believe is wrong, they're fair game.

To answer a question in such a way was so ridiculous as to beggar belief. As crass as it was in the first place, what fucking use is an increased living wage to someone who gets made unemployed?!

I'm not picking at him for the sake of it, I like him less than I like Dean Saunders but this isn't a personal matter. He is supposed to be leading the country, this is what we are told he has waited his entire life for - do it properly then. Being sloppy, underprepared, self-contradictory and evasive is very poor at a critical time.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I’m not going to defend what he’s said at all. Personally, I think the shutdown is too soon.

It’s a balance - the more you shutdown, the longer the issue lasts. The less you shutdown, the more people will die because the peak rises.

Personally, I think we’re erring towards the longer shutdown where I’d prefer a more middle ground.

It isn't a shutdown. It's an advisory. It's therefore a pointless halfway house that neither discourages with consequence the public from attending, nor protecting the businesses with insurance from loss of income. Bar that, it's stonking stuff.

 

[Premier Quality]

On the matter that pissed me off - tell pubs, theatres etc to close for a period and not a suggestion we should avoid them. Allow those companies a chance to survive during this.
I know it's impossible to help every business but it just comes across as zero assistance to huge sector and they are left to sort it out themselves and best of British luck to you.

So I don’t know why he’s done it that way - my guesses are...

It’s too soon to force people to stop going out by arresting them, because the NHS isn’t at capacity yet - so he’s happy for a proportion of people to keep going out.
Without police enforcement, a lot of the public don’t realise how serious this whole thing is and will go with the “it’s just a fackin cold” and keep going out, allowing the virus to tick over and immunity to keep building up
He wants to save the draconian “no ones allowed out at all” for a peak in the virus to bring it down.
If he has a lockdown for too long, elements of society will start breaking down - mental health issues will rise heavily, crime and anti social behaviour will increase, old people will die due to isolation.

Just my guesses

 

[Tredman]

Have a read of this report from Imperial College about the difference between suppression and mitigation

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd&cshid=1584391957923

A twitter thread on this, little bit more accessible.

https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239619001522761728?s=21

It’s honestly terrifying.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I think that is a valid point of view.

But the businesses are now going to lose significant trade and have no way of getting recompense. If it is the right time to do it (questionable in my view, but we are where we are) then you have to do it properly, you have to make it enforceable, and you have to declare it a ban so that recompense is available through insurance for the businesses that suffer.

 

[Paul]

Those in the Theatre business are fookin fuming tonight. If Boris had told Theatres to shut they would be able to claim losses via insurance but as he has just told people to avoid they are fucked.

Of all the frontline services, of all the people dealing with the sick, the young, the infirm, of all the people and companies that are not going to survive this, of all the things to beat this government with, you chose to champion the Lichfield Garrick ??

 

[AndyWolves]

A twitter thread on this, little bit more accessible.

https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239619001522761728?s=21

It’s honestly terrifying.

That's concerning, if I've read it right we're going to be in this until we get a vaccine unless we're ok with 250k or more people dying

Unless of course we have significantly more than 50k people with the virus right now

Edit. Fuck it, isolate over 60s too, I think that might work

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Excuse me for not trusting the guy in charge. I just feel his statement this evening has screwed over a lot of people and set it up in a way he (well Cummings) thinks people cant blame him

Absolutely. It's a cynical way of making people blame others rather than the government.

It also means that pub landlords who have none of the information that the government do have to make a decision on whether they close or not, they also aren't likely to get any insurance pay out as they have chosen rather than been forced to close.

They've put the onus on employers, restaurant owners and landlords to make decisions that they don't have the knowledge to make. Do they order beer? Food? Do they tell staff not to come in?

 

[Templeton Peck]

It isn't a shutdown. It's an advisory. It's therefore a pointless halfway house that neither discourages with consequence the public from attending, nor protecting the businesses with insurance from loss of income. Bar that, it's stonking stuff.

The whole thing has been a halfway house. Johnson has the energy of a moody teen pushed into giving a presentation.