Coronavirus

[BGreenWolf]

I keep seeing the phrase "until we get a vaccine"...that's clearly not driven by the science as the human race has never developed a successful vaccine for a coronavirus (that works with humans): https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

I reckon best we can hope for is they develop drugs that enable you to live with the virus rather than die from it (like they did with HIV).

Never before in the history of the field has so much money and resources been pushed towards vaccinology, and never before has it been so critical. I'm not sure that comparing past processes to what we currently have is all that helpful.

It's also not entirely accurate- vaccines have been developed, but they haven't made it into circulation because many coronaviruses that are serious enough to require vaccines are so deadly that they end up basically going extinct before the research can be completed. For instance, the Oxford University vaccinology department is currently in testing with a COVID-19 vaccine that's a slightly modified and polished version of a vaccine that was put together for MERS, but which never made it to testing because MERS burnt itself out before they had the chance.

 

[AndyWolves]

I havent watched all of them, on the whole they're tedious, lacking in substance and tend to annoy me, but I'm happy to be corrected on the fact I don't think anyone has said so far
'We estimate that there are 148,000 people in the UK with Covid but that may only be around 65% of the true number, we just don't know at the moment.'

You're making assumptions on things being obvious to a large number of people who believe every lie that drips from their favourite politicians lips.

If they've got it wrong I'm sure there'll be sufficient challenge from the scientific community

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

The British Medical Association has said that they don't believe schools should be reopening yet. I doubt the government will pay any attention.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

If they've got it wrong I'm sure there'll be sufficient challenge from the scientific community

They're being challenged,but the voices aren't being heard. Many people in the medical and scientific community think that certain Government representatives have already sold their soul

 

[darlowolf64]

How the fuck can Hancock keep a straight face when he says that the Government have protected care homes from the start of the outbreak? Fucking bare faced liar

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

He’s being thrown under a bus so is singing from the party hymn sheet as self preservation. Fuck the public.

 

[darlowolf64]

I've had to turn off as shouting abuse at the telly isn't helping... Just complete and utter lies, the entire presentation. I hope Starmer takes them apart at PMQ's next week

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Uk 256 deaths. Coming down quicker than a whore's knickers. Is Johnson's 12 weeks prediction close ?

384 deaths in all settings. The real number is going up as fast as The Leaders progeny count

 

[Sniffer]

Funding being taken away to house rough sleepers in temporary accommodation.

 

[pr0sl0]

Been waiting since the initial "herd immunity" plan was first publicly raised for someone - anyone - in a position of authority to not just use a metaphor like "forming a ring around care homes and the vulnerable", but to actually define what that "ring" is.

As far as I've been able to find, it was never more than a speculative plan raised as an option, rather than a concrete proposal with a track record of working in any past epidemics.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Been waiting since the initial "herd immunity" plan was first publicly raised for someone - anyone - in a position of authority to not just use a metaphor like "forming a ring around care homes and the vulnerable", but to actually define what that "ring" is.

As far as I've been able to find, it was never more than a speculative plan raised as an option, rather than a concrete proposal with a track record of working in any past epidemics.

It was an essential part of the original masterplan for 'herd immunity' that the Government neglected to impliment

 

[pr0sl0]

Yes, that's my point. It was included as part of that plan, but what, exactly, constitutes forming a "protective ring" has never actually been defined.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

i think similar to what they did in ireland, move all the old folks into a group of environments you can deal with them, like a number of hospitals that never get covid patients , ring fence them and put all the covids elsewhere. But for some unknown reason, they decided to ignore that bit of the plan

 

[pr0sl0]

Yeah but, again.... "ring fence"? What? How? Like, literally, or just metaphorically?

We're kind of having this exact debate in parallel in the other thread about football starting up. OK, so, you need a stadium with sterilised changing facilities for players, officials, and coaching staff... but then you need groundskeepers and other maintenance workers... security outside, and maybe inside... there's broadcasting as well of course, so how do you get the staff for that in (with their equipment) as well... and then you have to keep all these groups apart somehow, repeatedly, over different matchdays, knowing that a single infection can now waylay a much larger, concentrated group... and you need to coordinated a dozen different one of these across the country... etc etc

Care homes are even more embedded in towns and cities than sport facilities, and you do need quite a lot of stuff and staff coming and going all the time, even when locked down. When the idea of shielding them and other specific demographics (like "over-70s will have to stay inside for the next few months" was part of it too) was floated, don't get me wrong, my initial reaction was basically, "that seems risky, but I guess it makes sense if you think you can pull it off." But as far as I've been able to discern from reading epedemiologists about this, it's not actually a typical strategy during an epidemic - it's not even experimental. It's hypothetical that you can actually shield specific communities and demographics in those kinds of ways. And that applies to the other side of the coin, the "letting everyone else attain herd immunity quickly" part. And as far as I can tell, not only was it a hypothetical rather than a concrete plan, but it's not even being defined in practical terms in retrospect as it now becomes, bizarrely, part of the government's defensive script.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

as far as i know the proposal was metaphoric, and part of a ' Look, its not the solution, but if you REALLY insist on 'herd immunity' its essential you create protected 'islands' of old people who are currently in care homes where you can keep them isolated, safe and sound away from the 'herd' while you let them infect themselves. If you don't, huge numbers of them will die so that has to be your number one priority, if you don't prioritise that, they're fucked.' It's like that bit was on page 2 and they never bothered turning the page to read it.

Now how you achieve that is anyone's guess. The parallel with football is a good one, although with the old folks, it would be much harder. They'd require a 24 hour care team that would also need to be isolated with them as long as the whole thing took. No visitors, no contact with anyone from the outside world till it was over and they could go back to where they'd come from.

I canlt see why anyone would suggest it other than on a purely theoretical ' if you really, really, REALLY insist on A then you HAVE to do B, so you can see why A isn't the smartest idea you've ever had' basis. I really can't see any sane scientist proposing it as part of an actual strategy or solution to the problem

 

[AndyWolves]

Yes, that's my point. It was included as part of that plan, but what, exactly, constitutes forming a "protective ring" has never actually been defined.

Step 1 would be not to send suspected covid19 patients back into care homes.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Step 1 would be this is fucking insane, whats the other options?

 

[arklowolf]

i think similar to what they did in ireland, move all the old folks into a group of environments you can deal with them, like a number of hospitals that never get covid patients , ring fence them and put all the covids elsewhere. But for some unknown reason, they decided to ignore that bit of the plan

Over 400 'clusters' in residential nursing homes and care facilities here.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Over 400 'clusters' in residential nursing homes and care facilities here.

I meant more the way that the provincial hospitals were emptied and patients moved up to places like Dublin so they'd be more easily isolated and the empty hospitals able to to deal with cv-19 cases, i should have been clearer

 

[arklowolf]

I meant more the way that the provincial hospitals were emptied and patients moved up to places like Dublin so they'd be more easily isolated and the empty hospitals able to to deal with cv-19 cases, i should have been clearer

Ok, well talking to the wife (hse bod) she says that did happen in some cases (Cork for one) but it was a bit 'hit and miss'. It should have happened though no doubt, both here and in the UK I would have thought. Mind you moving someone who is say 85, bed ridden, maybe 40-50 miles and relocating them whilst they are dying with Covid might be easier said than done.