Coronavirus

[Rui_CostCo]

Ok, well talking to the wife (hse bod) she says that did happen in some cases (Cork for one) but it was a bit 'hit and miss'. It should have happened though no doubt, both here and in the UK I would have thought. Mind you moving someone who is say 85, bed ridden, maybe 40-50 miles and relocating them whilst they are dying with Covid might be easier said than done.

from what we've been told, a lot of the hospitals that 'were' cleared out have remained empty, which is causing a bit of concern, that there might be a similar situation to here developed where the number of patients that would normally be showing up at this time of year just havent and no one knows why

 

[arklowolf]

from what we've been told, a lot of the hospitals that 'were' cleared out have remained empty, which is causing a bit of concern, that there might be a similar situation to here developed where the number of patients that would normally be showing up at this time of year just havent and no one knows why

I suppose the fear that they might catch the virus is a bigger worry than any other ailment they may have.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

I suppose the fear that they might catch the virus is a bigger worry than any other ailment they may have.

I think that's certainly what's happened here. Initially the advice was to not go to hospital if you could avoid it which seems to have had too great an effect

 

[Templeton Peck]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...iO2_7djBilAbnCyEXZhiuLNGtl03lQkNJIlYu0QNqu36k

 

[Rui_CostCo]

SAGE is confident that overall the R is not above

Government latest estimate on infection rate - 0.7 to 1

 

[AndyWolves]

I stumbled across this which looks like good news for immunity following the infected and also the prevalence of innate immunity. I'm not going to pretend I understand it all

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1261052353773363200?s=19

 

[Rui_CostCo]

That's encouraging news.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Not sure what to think about this. On the one hand, it looks like legal action to force the Government to be more transparent. On the other hand, it looks like a millionaire who wants to put the needs of his business before the health of the nation.
Simon_Dolan

legal-action-refusal-to-publish-sage-minutes-lockdown

 

[AndyWolves]

Not sure what to think about this. On the one hand, it looks like legal action to force the Government to be more transparent. On the other hand, it looks like a millionaire who wants to put the needs of his business before the health of the nation.
Simon_Dolan

legal-action-refusal-to-publish-sage-minutes-lockdown

He looks a bit like João Moutinho

 

[Rui_CostCo]

He seems a bit Branson lite - man worth £142 million starts 150k crowdfunder to challenge Government Dolans crowdfunder

"Initially, we need to raise £30,000 to perform the initial work in this case but we will then need to go on to raise over £125,000 to take this case through to completion"

'I'm down to my last £142 million, I simply don't know how my Gazprom sponsored team will be able to race at Le Mans again, I desperately need your support....'

 

[SSB]

A few webcams of the UK coast to gauge how busy they are this weekend.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england.html

 

[MARKakaJIM]

A few webcams of the UK coast to gauge how busy they are this weekend.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england.html

Hell of a lot quieter than I expected, maybe people can be trusted to think for themselves a little after all?

I've been in the pub that's centre stage on the Leicester camera too.

 

[playtheace]

looks nice in St Ives... not been since the 70's.

 

[Papper]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technol...wn-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

" The Covid-19 modelling that sent Britain into lockdown, shutting the economy and leaving millions unemployed, has been slammed by a series of experts.

Professor Neil Ferguson's computer coding was derided as “totally unreliable” by leading figures, who warned it was “something you wouldn’t stake your life on".

The model, credited with forcing the Government to make a U-turn and introduce a nationwide lockdown, is a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming”, says David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco.

“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.”

“We’d be up in arms if weather forecasting was based on a single set of results from a single model and missed taking that umbrella when it rained,” says Michael Bonsall, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University.

Concerns, in particular, over Ferguson’s model have been raised, with Konstantin Boudnik, vice-president of architecture at WANdisco, saying his track record in modelling doesn’t inspire confidence.

In the early 2000s, Ferguson’s models incorrectly predicted up to 136,000 deaths from mad cow disease, 200 million from bird flu and 65,000 from swine flu.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Todays Testing and fatality statistics have been released.

468 people who tested positive for Covid-19 have died

Daily CV-19 Tests for 15/06/2020 136,486, 78,537 people were tested, 3,451 people tested positive.

There were 37,324 Pillar 1 tests across 27,815 people, a further 67,815 Pillar 2 tests across 50,722 people and there were 31,347 Pillar 4 tests, with no people tested. I think around 48,000 are postal tests, Pillar 4 includes tests purely for research purposes, for example on the accuracy and ease of use of home testing as well as those done to ascertain the prevalence and spread of the virus.

If anyone can make any sense of the actual testing numbers let me know. It's almost like they're going out of their way to make it difficult to calculate the true numbers.

coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

The daily figures on the number of tests include:

Tests processed through Govt laboratories

These are counted at the time of processing in the laboratory and not when they are issued to people. Tests are never double-counted. Tests counted in this way are used to calculate the ‘people tested’ figure. This includes:

all tests under pillar 1
‘in-person’ testing routes under pillar 2, for example tests carried out at the mobile testing units and the drive-through regional testing sites
‘in-person’ testing routes under pillar 4, for example tests carried out as part of surveillance testing where they are administered by nurses employed by the central programme

Tests sent to individual at home or to satellite testing locations

These are counted when tests are dispatched and not at the time of processing in the laboratory. Tests are never double-counted. Tests counted in this way do not contribute towards the ‘people tested’ figure. This includes:

‘delivery’ testing routes under pillar 2, for example tests carried out by the satellite testing centres, and home testing kits delivered by post
‘delivery’ testing routes under pillar 4, for example tests carried out as part of surveillance testing where they are administered by individuals, rather than nurses employed by the central programme.

For clinical reasons, some people are tested more than once. Therefore the number of tests completed may be higher than the number of people tested. For Pillar 4, some protocols allow for samples to be tested repeatedly, (although if they're all postal and tests do not get counted twice I'm not sure why this is important

 

[Papper]

Further thoughts on the apparent ' control ' of the virus in London.

It is the most densely populated area of the country so presupposing the virus has been around since November/December this might explain that a greater percentage of the London population has already built up a ' herd immunity ' given far higher mortality rate in the area. Having said before mortality was listed as Covid the overall mortality rates in January/February would also show an upward curve which would give an idea of how fast the virus had spread.

 

[Papper]

If anyone can make any sense of the actual testing numbers let me know. It's almost like they're going out of their way to make it difficult to calculate the true numbers.

It's fair to say they don't know the true numbers of who has had it and recovered. They don't know the true number of people who currently have it and will not be tested. The only reliable data is mortality above average and even that data may be skewed given the disproportionate mortality rates in care homes. Unless the population is mass tested for antibodies it all seems rather pointless. This doesn't bode well for any forecasts concerned with a second wave.

 

[Tredman]

The state of this in the Express. Fucking cunts, utter scum.

 

[AndyWolves]

It's fair to say they don't know the true numbers of who has had it and recovered. They don't know the true number of people who currently have it and will not be tested. The only reliable data is mortality above average and even that data may be skewed given the disproportionate mortality rates in care homes. Unless the population is mass tested for antibodies it all seems rather pointless. This doesn't bode well for any forecasts concerned with a second wave.

I've been looking at numbers of people being hospitalised with covid19 by region as an indicator. Again, it doesn't cover everything but gives an idea as to whether cases are increasing or decreasing, obviously there's a 2-3 week lag

 

[AndyWolves]

Further thoughts on the apparent ' control ' of the virus in London.

It is the most densely populated area of the country so presupposing the virus has been around since November/December this might explain that a greater percentage of the London population has already built up a ' herd immunity ' given far higher mortality rate in the area. Having said before mortality was listed as Covid the overall mortality rates in January/February would also show an upward curve which would give an idea of how fast the virus had spread.

This is what I've thought for a while, we'll know more if we can a second spike and if London climbs as quickly when compared to other regions as it did in wave one