Coronavirus

[Sniffer]

There seems to be a difference of opinion between the scientists here and in most other countries.

You have to hope that the ones here have it right and we do manage to limit the worst impact.

 

[Tyrannosaurus Dan]

Fairly sure I had Coronavirus on 20th December looking back on it...that was a rough few days.

There was definitely something going around before Christmas with similar symptoms. My son had a cough for weeks and a high temp that wouldn't go away (39 + at one point). We were convinced it was some sort of chest infection but GP couldn't find anything in 2 visits. They prescribed him 2 lots of antibiotics anyway as he was clearly ill with something and it eventually went away.

 

[Premier Quality]

Contain is mapping out what is happening where and literally trying to contain it where they find it. Delay is accepting that it isn't worth doing that anymore and take increasing levels of action to make the inevitable increase in infection as slow as possible. It's like a large bucket with an ever increasing number of holes, you can hold it back for a while but soon you give up and start building a dam.

From a purely sociological perspective, I am really interested to see how the UK approach pans out. Whole chunks of it seem completely counter intuitive but if it works it could become the model for dealing with situations like this. We all know what's coming and when it does we will all be ready to do it. I think the aim is to actually get over 70% of people infected but in a controlled way - then it won't be a new virus any more.

Good summary that.

 

[arklowolf]

That's what I think.
There are rumours that there was an outbreak in China two years ago, but they kept the lid on it. Who know?
I said from the start, that this is either a lot worse than has been disclosed or that the media were blowing it out of all proportion.
I've come to the conclusion that the former is true.

As I thought.
No more gym.
No more 5 a side.
No work either.

 

[arklowolf]

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/12/WS5e6a1a53a31012821727e9dc.html

Those unreliable Chinese...

It's the least they could do..

 

[nimrod]

Can anyone explain the difference between the contain and the delay phase as I don't see any in reality.

one's been proven not to have worked, so we move on to the next.

spoke to my sister who was telling me about a couple of her UK tango events that have been cancelled. some of the attendees had been at an event in northern italy and had tested positive. despite this, a couple of them who had organised a group to attend an event in buenos aires unbelievably went ahead with the trip. they were spotted there by people who knew they'd been at the italian event and the shit hit the fan. they've managed to close down tango in buenos aires (though i'm sure that would have happened eventually anyway).

 

[Templeton Peck]

one's been proven not to have worked, so we move on to the next.

spoke to my sister who was telling me about a couple of her UK tango events that have been cancelled. some of the attendees had been at an event in northern italy and had tested positive. despite this, a couple of them who had organised a group to attend an event in buenos aires unbelievably went ahead with the trip. they were spotted there by people who knew they'd been at the italian event and the shit hit the fan. they've managed to close down tango in buenos aires (though i'm sure that would have happened eventually anyway).

Yeah but what's changed? We're in the delay phase but they've not announced anything new today.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

They have banned overseas school trips.

Three days before my eldest leaves for Iceland on his A-Level geography field trip. He's absolutely gutted.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

one's been proven not to have worked, so we move on to the next.

spoke to my sister who was telling me about a couple of her UK tango events that have been cancelled. some of the attendees had been at an event in northern italy and had tested positive. despite this, a couple of them who had organised a group to attend an event in buenos aires unbelievably went ahead with the trip. they were spotted there by people who knew they'd been at the italian event and the shit hit the fan. they've managed to close down tango in buenos aires (though i'm sure that would have happened eventually anyway).

I think you misunderstood what the purpose of contain was, it was never possible to try and prevent infection and probably not desirable either - the aspiration was to prevent the spike in infection rates for as long as possible. In order to develop any semblance of herd immunity, the inevitable mass infection has to happen - the plan is to try and exert some control as to when and how fast that happens. Coronavirus is already here, it was never going away and there is currently no vaccine or treatment. Given that we are 4 weeks behind Italy it is quite likely contain was relatively successful.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

Yeah but what's changed? We're in the delay phase but they've not announced anything new today.

Apart from banning school trips, advising against cruises for elderly people, tweaking the self isolation rules and preparing for regular changes to those instructions. Within weeks the restrictions will be more but they will accumulate rather than be Big Bang.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Unless your pension is due to be paid out very shortly then I wouldn't worry unduly - markets rise & fall regularly. Had a stocks & shares ISA that I put £7000 in (when that was the max you could do in any one year) - dropped to a value of £3000 at one point, but paid out nearly £12000 when I did cash it in.

My dad was due to retire next month but couple of weeks ago when the spread to Europe was confirmed his pension crashed 40k in a week. Not sure if that’s continued to drop but he can’t take it now as he lost all that money.

Hilariously, I’ve been meaning to set up a stocks and shares ISA and finally did it after Christmas. I’d made 2.5% in 2 weeks, thought was too good to be true and then corona struck late Jan and that was decimated to a 5% loss. Then it recovered, all was ok again, until in the last 2/3 weeks it’s crashed and I’m now 17% down overall with some as low as -30%. Couldn’t have timed it worse. But new tax year coming up so hopefully the market levels off and I can chuck a big lump sum in at bargain basement prices.

I’m in it for the long run but not sure what my dad will do with his pension...

 

[arklowolf]

I think you misunderstood what the purpose of contain was, it was never possible to try and prevent infection and probably not desirable either - the aspiration was to prevent the spike in infection rates for as long as possible. In order to develop any semblance of herd immunity, the inevitable mass infection has to happen - the plan is to try and exert some control as to when and how fast that happens. Coronavirus is already here, it was never going away and there is currently no vaccine or treatment. Given that we are 4 weeks behind Italy it is quite likely contain was relatively successful.

This.
And Ireland closing schools and creches is not the way to go.
First thing working parents will do is take the kids to their grandparents.

 

[Parkins left foot]

My dad was due to retire next month but couple of weeks ago when the spread to Europe was confirmed his pension crashed 40k in a week. Not sure if that’s continued to drop but he can’t take it now as he lost all that money.

Hilariously, I’ve been meaning to set up a stocks and shares ISA and finally did it after Christmas. I’d made 2.5% in 2 weeks, thought was too good to be true and then corona struck late Jan and that was decimated to a 5% loss. Then it recovered, all was ok again, until in the last 2/3 weeks it’s crashed and I’m now 17% down overall with some as low as -30%. Couldn’t have timed it worse. But new tax year coming up so hopefully the market levels off and I can chuck a big lump sum in at bargain basement prices.

I’m in it for the long run but not sure what my dad will do with his pension...

A pension should have built up the majority of its ultimate benefit before the last year before it is drawn on.

A sensible fund manager should have moved the fund to less volatile investment s for the last 12 months - little chance of big increase, but also limited chance of big losses just before it gets paid out.

 

[nimrod]

I think you misunderstood what the purpose of contain was, it was never possible to try and prevent infection and probably not desirable either - the aspiration was to prevent the spike in infection rates for as long as possible. In order to develop any semblance of herd immunity, the inevitable mass infection has to happen - the plan is to try and exert some control as to when and how fast that happens. Coronavirus is already here, it was never going away and there is currently no vaccine or treatment. Given that we are 4 weeks behind Italy it is quite likely contain was relatively successful.

it’s certainly killing any light hearted flippancy.

as for successful, surely you’d have to demonstrate cause and effect. if you don’t know what caused the spike in Italy versus anywhere else you don’t know why you’re X weeks behind. concluding success in the absence of any such analysis is just speculation. it may be that the containment measures, whatever they are alleged to be (business as usual?), have had zero effect on the penetration of the virus and there will be other factors - eg geography - at play. I doubt anyone could reasonably conclude anything until after events unfold.

tbh i’m not sure how the example of known contaminated persons returning from events in northern Italy and freely organising other events unchecked to pass on that contamination is ‘containment’ as opposed to potentially feeding a spike.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

The curve of cases in the UK graphically is almost exactly mirroring Italy, but obviously some days and weeks behind. That's pretty conclusive for me.

 

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

Unless your pension is due to be paid out very shortly then I wouldn't worry unduly - markets rise & fall regularly. Had a stocks & shares ISA that I put £7000 in (when that was the max you could do in any one year) - dropped to a value of £3000 at one point, but paid out nearly £12000 when I did cash it in.

Yeah my pension is now worth less than what has been paid in, first time that's happened.

And I've had over $500 knocked off my shares.

Not too worried, they should bounce back in time but I would be freaked if I was on the verge of retirement

 

[Templeton Peck]

Not convinced with herd immunity as a strategy in the slightest. We'd be subjecting about 6m to severe symptoms and you can get re-infected after about a month anyway.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It's a fairly dumb idea in my view. If you want everyone to build an immunity, what the hell happens if an earlier carrier catches it a second time, or even worse, the strain mutates?

 

[Monstrum]

Corona virus is starting to destroy my finances. Shares tanking, currency tanking, tenants shop going out of business, zero clients & work. Hope it doesnt last long.

 

[UKYankieWWFC]

So cruise ship guy was forced to go home after lunch to self isolate for the next 14 days from work
And, just received a text from the local education authority that the kids school will be closed till 6th april