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That's the bit I don't understand, if we smooth the curve out as the experts have said then the peak is stretched to 3 months. In which case we aren't 4 weeks behind Italy. Italy may not be even relevant yet, it may be a complete outlier.
As a multitude of experts have said today, we actually don't know. If we followed China then their peak was 8 weeks after first diagnosis and 3 months from start to finish. Others less, others more.
There is so much conjecture right now, I guess it's good to read all the data not just the press.
But China basically shut down everywhere which isn't happening or going to happen here any time soon.