Coronavirus

[Deutsch Wolf]

367 more deaths in England announced today.

I think that is 393 for the whole of the UK in the last 24 hours.

This is why you shouldn't hold on to one day's data (over the weekend as well) as a sign that we're starting to come out of it. We aren't.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

Is today the first time they're including non-hospital deaths in the figures?

So it's somewhat understandable there's a big jump from yesterday as there's a bigger pool being measured in effect, bit like yesterday being too soon to garner too much positivity it's probably not yet time to get too negative with a big jump up today, need to wait a few days for comparable figures measuring across the same sample to draw a better picture.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

40 are the non-hospital deaths up to 20 March. I would hope that a fair chunk of the jump today is non-hospital since that date. If it isn't then things are still looking pretty damn bad.

Which is to be expected really. A little late on lockdown seems to equal a lot of pain.

 

[Del Woppio]

It's 381 hospital deaths according to the guardian live blog

 

[MARKakaJIM]

It's probably going to be at least the end of this week before you can really make much of an assessment of how lockdown is doing in reality, if you have an average 7 day incubation period then you're still going to get cases a week after people started shutting themselves in, add a few more days for people to really settle into it after they've gathered up bits from work and everything else, you're probably getting 2-3 days of consistent numbers coming in towards the end of this week of fairly well observed lockdown that could suggest it's effectiveness.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Yeah, we aren't going to know the impact of that for a while. Isn't it an average of 17 days from infection to death, something like that?

What we can see is that if you let it go relatively unchecked then you can't stop the rise, it won't just magic itself away.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Neil from the Fox at Shipley is being discharged, so that's something positive.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

Yeah, we aren't going to know the impact of that for a while. Isn't it an average of 17 days from infection to death, something like that?

What we can see is that if you let it go relatively unchecked then you can't stop the rise, it won't just magic itself away.

Bit of squiffy reasoning on my part there, averaged 7 days from infection to symptoms but obviously they're reporting deaths more so than cases as the headline so if you're looking at over double that period for transmission>death then it's at least a week longer before you see the possible effect on those numbers.

Found quite a nice, probably could think of a more appropriate word there, graph somewhere the other night that showed a daily cases/deaths and cumulative cases/deaths as a combined bar and line graph but can't think where it was now. Was a useful graphic for having all the vital numbers together in one chart, your line graph still rising looking bad but bar chart steadying to give you some comfort it wasn't escalating out of hand and then the deaths overlaid with the delay between detection and termination.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Another good one is the deaths since the tenth mapped out by days, with exponential growth marked as 33% daily rise, and also with Italy and Spain on it as comparators. That is useful info.

Number of cases is less useful as every country has a different testing regime. We need apples with apples for that to make sense on a global level.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Christ, Toby Young is a piece of shit.

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1244966049117765632

Not breaking news I know.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Sounds like he wants to suck on the Trump schlong.

Hope the cunt doesn't end up feeling the full effect of this as I don't think he would like it very much if either he or a relative was in his collateral damage figure.

 

[Tredman]

Bit of squiffy reasoning on my part there, averaged 7 days from infection to symptoms but obviously they're reporting deaths more so than cases as the headline so if you're looking at over double that period for transmission>death then it's at least a week longer before you see the possible effect on those numbers.

Found quite a nice, probably could think of a more appropriate word there, graph somewhere the other night that showed a daily cases/deaths and cumulative cases/deaths as a combined bar and line graph but can't think where it was now. Was a useful graphic for having all the vital numbers together in one chart, your line graph still rising looking bad but bar chart steadying to give you some comfort it wasn't escalating out of hand and then the deaths overlaid with the delay between detection and termination.

This one is good to see where countries are at similar times in their outbreak:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-deaths-since-5th-death?country=GBR+FRA+ITA+ESP

Edit - will probably look quite a bit different when today's data goes up.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

some of the replies...

User name "No Lockdown" sounds like a truly selfless type. Is it some form of economic eugenics cult?

First against the wall and all that.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Still above exponential death rate growth even before today's bad figures are added in.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

France above Iran. Ourselves next to shoot by that, unless the States get there first (which I am pretty sure they already have but don't see them on the graphic)

 

[Johnny75]

Another good one is the deaths since the tenth mapped out by days, with exponential growth marked as 33% daily rise, and also with Italy and Spain on it as comparators. That is useful info.

Number of cases is less useful as every country has a different testing regime. We need apples with apples for that to make sense on a global level.

There's the issue. I'm not sure anybody is counting the number of deaths in the same way and I'm not sure China is telling the world the truth at all given that my Chinese supplier said the numbers we were being told were out from anywhere between 2 and 10 times.

 

[Tredman]

France above Iran. Ourselves next to shoot by that, unless the States get there first (which I am pretty sure they already have but don't see them on the graphic)

US here, poster child for lack of government action

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Just looked at the site and looked at the curves of ourselves, Italy, Spain, France, China, Iran and of course the USA.

The first six countries have had above exponential death rate growth and these are trending toward a flattening to the exponential line or below it.

The US has been below exponential for most of the outbreak and now is shooting up toward, and indeed beyond the line. That's the outlier that tells you the Donald is getting it wrong.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Pob on the press conference today.

 

[Tredman]

Christ, Toby Young is a piece of shit.

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1244966049117765632

Not breaking news I know.

The guy thinks fucking a pig is a good thing. I think we can safely ignore him.

https://twitter.com/mrnickharvey/status/646070662134673408?s=20