Wolves 3 - Bristol 3 the more excitement in one game than the whole of last season ve

[Deutsch Wolf]

WhoScored's metrics for defenders are all over the shop. Doc got in their Team of the Year last season at LB! They also had two Barnsley defenders and they had one of the worst defensive records in the division.

 

[Tony Towner]

Exactly this. It began after Miranda got beaten so cheaply by Hoilett in the Cardiff game since then some people have developed this issue with him, on all Wolves patforms/fora. It's confirmation bias.

I said I wasn't impressed after the Boro game. His worst game was supposedly Cardiff, which I wasn't at, but I have been at the other 3 home league games and he hasn't impressed me in any of them, although to be fair in two of those he's played on his unnatural side. I think he'll prove to be a weak link personally, but fitness permitting I expect to see Hause, Coady Boly as the first choice back 3.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Of course he does, those stats are based on Miranda playing five games more than Batth.

It's hardly a fair comparison is it? I'd expect Batth to have a higher completion % when he's played over 400 minutes fewer and therefore made far fewer passes.

Are you not at all surprised that despite Batth playing in 5 fewer games than Miranda he has attempted more passes per game?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Derby Wolf]

Are you not at all surprised that despite Batth playing in 5 fewer games than Miranda he has attempted more passes per game?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Ignoring the minutes played point, It depends entirely how you interpret the statistics.

On one hand you correctly point out he's attempted more passes... somebody else could interpret that Batth isn't comfortable in possession so looks to get rid of it as soon as he receives it.

If Batth is immediately passing the ball five/ten yards to his left to Coady and Miranda under no pressure at all - vanity passing for lack of a better term - his completion rate will be higher. Does it mean he's a better player? Hardly.

 

[Alan]

Batth's score is likely skewed because of his goal(s) (not sure if that comparison included Cup games).

 

[Trips]

Are you not at all surprised that despite Batth playing in 5 fewer games than Miranda he has attempted more passes per game?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

One thing I've just looked at is possession in each game. In Batth's two games we have dominated possession, so the team as a whole will have played more passes. In the games against Middlesbrough, Derby and Brentford (that Miranda played in without Batth) the opposition had more possession. Now this would suggest we played less passes as we had less of the ball, meaning Miranda would have attempted less passes in these games.

I will say I haven't looked into amount of passes by team and player and have purely looked at possession, but I'd be surprised if Miranda attempted more passes in games where we've had less of the ball.

 

[YoungWolf]

One thing I've just looked at is possession in each game. In Batth's two games we have dominated possession, so the team as a whole will have played more passes. In the games against Middlesbrough, Derby and Brentford (that Miranda played in without Batth) the opposition had more possession. Now this would suggest we played less passes as we had less of the ball, meaning Miranda would have attempted less passes in these games.

I will say I haven't looked into amount of passes by team and player and have purely looked at possession, but I'd be surprised if Miranda attempted more passes in games where we've had less of the ball.

This. Very flawed argument. Completed passes mean little without the context. How many were forward passes (for each)? How many broke lines of opposition defence?

I would also imagine Miranda and Batth had a similar pass rate over the previous two games.

 

[VanWolfie]

In my line of work, we distinguish between accounting and accountability. Accounting means counting the number of passes; accountability asks the question, what was achieved with the passes made. Sadly, the statistics quoted are all in the accounting mode and therefore don't tell us much at all.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

My argument throughout this discussion has been that Batth played better against Bristol City than Miranda. Those stats help to back that up.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[PuntsWolf]

My argument throughout this discussion has been that Batth played better against Bristol City than Miranda. Those stats help to back that up.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

They don't though. Passing the ball to Coady, Doherty or Ruddy counts as a "pass" and gets you a good % but doesn't achieve anything. Miranda trying risky balls into Bonatini/Jota are harder and less likely to come off but are more effective. (The low number of "long balls" backs this up.)

Plus that sample size is way too small, particularly when it's two home games and in one of them we had 70% possession.

I'm not sold on Miranda, but these stats tell you pretty much nothing.

 

[Trips]

My argument throughout this discussion has been that Batth played better against Bristol City than Miranda. Those stats help to back that up.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

If that was your argument throughout then I don't think anybody would disagree with you, Batth did have a better game on Tuesday than Miranda. That doesn't mean Miranda played badly. It's when you say he's not looked great all season and has errors in him that people have challenged you on.

 

[Peter_Knowles_Ghost]

They don't though. Passing the ball to Coady, Doherty or Ruddy counts as a "pass" and gets you a good % but doesn't achieve anything. Miranda trying risky balls into Bonatini/Jota are harder and less likely to come off but are more effective. (The low number of "long balls" backs this up.)

Plus that sample size is way too small, particularly when it's two home games and in one of them we had 70% possession.

I'm not sold on Miranda, but these stats tell you pretty much nothing.

Agreed. I'm not completely sold on Miranda, I think he's always got a mistake in him at the moment, but I also think he's a better player overall than Baath, especially in this team and the way we want to play. Danny is a good solid defender (most of the time, although he's also prone to the odd mistake or two) and he can be relied on to pass 15 yards sideways to Coady every time he gets the ball, thus upping his passing stats. Miranda, however, can win the ball by predicting the opponent's pass, intercepting the ball, and then striding upfield before attempting to play in Jota, Cav or Bonatini with his pass. Riskier, admittedly, but I think that's how Nuno wants us to play and I have to admit I'm really enjoying the football I'm seeing from Wolves this season. All those 0-0 games are receding quickly into the mists of time ...

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Agreed. I'm not completely sold on Miranda, I think he's always got a mistake in him at the moment, but I also think he's a better player overall than Baath, especially in this team and the way we want to play. Danny is a good solid defender (most of the time, although he's also prone to the odd mistake or two) and he can be relied on to pass 15 yards sideways to Coady every time he gets the ball, thus upping his passing stats. Miranda, however, can win the ball by predicting the opponent's pass, intercepting the ball, and then striding upfield before attempting to play in Jota, Cav or Bonatini with his pass. Riskier, admittedly, but I think that's how Nuno wants us to play and I have to admit I'm really enjoying the football I'm seeing from Wolves this season. All those 0-0 games are receding quickly into the mists of time ...

I agree with all that.

Hopefully the potential that Miranda has will come to the fore as the season goes on.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Johnny75]

If that was your argument throughout then I don't think anybody would disagree with you, Batth did have a better game on Tuesday than Miranda. That doesn't mean Miranda played badly. It's when you say he's not looked great all season and has errors in him that people have challenged you on.

Exactly this.

 

[YoungWolf]

As I expected to see, based on the quality of chances created most times we win this game. https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/907864544386658304

Our pass map looks great you can really see the shape coming along.

 

[b3h]

I think the only thing Danny beats Rode on is physicality and headers. More to come from Miranda whereas Tuesday was about Batth's best.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

This new craze on 'expected goals' or whatever they're calling it intrigues me.

In isolation you can look at games and think whichever team obviously created the better chances and were just unlucky on the day that their opponent made the most of lesser chances to nick a point or three, but over a longer period if your team keeps creating a wealth of opportunities compared to their opponents yet failing to get the win surely that would point to shortcomings up front? Obviously the sample size is still very small at the moment but there have already been a couple of Wolves games were the expected goals show a much clearer result than what's actually been achieved but if that trend continues would that suggest Wolves aren't ruthless enough and that perhaps a lack of cutting edge is holding the team back?

I'm not sure how useful a lot of stats around football are to be honest, there's so much open to interpretation that even something that looks as clear as day in numbers can easily have holes poked in it when you start to think about how it actually transpired on the pitch.

 

[YoungWolf]

Football is so random that it is very difficult but there are clubs doing it very well and I think the next area of investment for clubs will come in analytics. You can get ahead of teams at the moment and then people will start to play catch up.

If teams are continously massively underperforming their expected goals then it is a good way to highlight that your forwards are a bit crap at finishing, or they just need to improve at something specifically. Whereas if all their shots were coming from somewhere you are far less likely to score you can focus on how you would create better quality of chances in better positions. So I definitely agree with you on that point but I would rather be creating a lot of opportunities and missing them than creating very little. So a team like Burnley quite often outperform their 'xG' but in the long term I don't think they can continue to do that.

Although it's a bit of a 'craze' as you say it is fast becoming the norm and is definitely here to stay.

 

[Peter_Knowles_Ghost]

Our pass map looks great you can really see the shape coming along.

Fantastic, isn't it? You can see we aren't reliant on one or two players; the whole team is involved and you can see a definite shape to the play. As far as the strike rate is concerned, I am waiting until Costa is back and had a few games until I get really concerned about the conversion rate of chances created.

 

[Siggy]

Being brave on the ball at the back in particular is critical to the way we play it draws players out further up the pitch and creates space. Batth had a good game against Bristol but let's not get ahead of ourselves as a stopper brought in to deal with a big lump he's a great option, as a player trying to draw players out and pick a pass (not a 5 yard get rid of it quick pass) as part of our new system he's well down the list.

We have options for different teams the next defender I would bin would be Bennett, what a cracking signing that was.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk