Wolves 0-1 Arsenal: Verdict Thread

[Alan]

I really wouldn't be getting that worked up about not creating chances against the best out of possession team in the world.

Are they, though?

Meant genuinely, to be clear.

 

[Lycan]

Are they, though?

Meant genuinely, to be clear.

Absolutely. Who would you say is better than them?

 

[slink]

Absolutely. Who would you say is better than them?

I’d say Arsenal, Inter and Liverpool are the 3 best defensive teams right now.

 

[Alan]

Absolutely. Who would you say is better than them?

I guess what I'm asking is how you've arrived at that conclusion? I'd probably default to xGA (supplementing with other defensive stats as needed) given it's basically impossible to follow all 5 of the traditional "top leagues" in Europe.

For completeness, Bayern (11.0 xGA) lead that stat by a fairly large margin over Inter (16.4) in 2nd. Arsenal (20.2) sit 14th.

 

[Tony Towner]

This is taking things way too far, but if PGMOL used a degree of common sense and stopped protecting Oli and Tayls in particular then you'd reduce the abuse

https://twitter.com/x/status/1883591808682242084

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

I thought the way the players hounded MO was awful and not something we'd have got away with in the same situation.

You're right they've created this situation for themselves, but they have with the way players hounding the ref is just allowed too.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

I guess what I'm asking is how you've arrived at that conclusion? I'd probably default to xGA (supplementing with other defensive stats as needed) given it's basically impossible to follow all 5 of the traditional "top leagues" in Europe.

For completeness, Bayern (11.0 xGA) lead that stat by a fairly large margin over Inter (16.4) in 2nd. Arsenal (20.2) sit 14th.

Very difficult to determine how much of that limiting of xGA is down to effective defensive action or domination of possession though from that stat alone.

 

[Alan]

Very difficult to determine how much of that limiting of xGA is down to effective defensive action or domination of possession though from that stat alone.

We could probably reference field tilt to control for that a bit. Given that xGA is an illustration of chance quality, I think it still tells a story on its own here.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

We could probably reference field tilt to control for that a bit. Given that xGA is an illustration of chance quality, I think it still tells a story on its own here.

I can't agree with the last sentence. Someone like peak Atletico could often accumulate a reasonable xGA through a lot of low quality efforts because they tend to spend a lot of time without the ball but are very good out of possession. Whereas the little bits I've seen of Company era Bayern will usually dominate possession but when tested by better sides can fall apart and give up much better quality chances in those isolated games.

The comparison against possession would be a key differential in determining quality out of possession.

 

[Alan]

"Tells a story" != "Tells the whole story", but I enjoy a little dive into the stats...

We'll keep the comparison to just Bayern and Arsenal.

	Avg. Possession	SCA allowed/90'	xGA/90'	npxGA/90'	GA/90'
Bayern	70.7%	8.68	0.58	0.50	0.84
Arsenal	55.2%	18.65	0.89	0.82	0.91

For simplicity's sake, I'm just sticking to 90 minutes.

Bayern's opponents hold the ball, on average, ~26 minutes. Arsenal's, on average, hold it for ~40 minutes. So, we can then say that Bayern allow 1 SCA allowed for about every 3 minutes of opposition possession. Arsenal allow 1 SCA for about every 2 minutes of opposition possession.

All stats per fbref, and by extension Opta.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

"Tells a story" != "Tells the whole story", but I enjoy a little dive into the stats...

We'll keep the comparison to just Bayern and Arsenal.

	Avg. Possession	SCA allowed/90'	xGA/90'	npxGA/90'	GA/90'
Bayern	70.7%	8.68	0.58	0.50	0.84
Arsenal	55.2%	18.65	0.89	0.82	0.91

For simplicity's sake, I'm just sticking to 90 minutes.

Bayern's opponents hold the ball, on average, ~26 minutes. Arsenal's, on average, hold it for ~40 minutes. So, we can then say that Bayern allow 1 SCA allowed for about every 3 minutes of opposition possession. Arsenal allow 1 SCA for about every 2 minutes of opposition possession.

All stats per fbref, and by extension Opta.

Very very similar figures circa 0.02 npxGA per minute of opposition possession for both. Think that's a slightly better reflection of quality of chances than SCA as a square pass 40 yards from goal could become a SCA by someone having an extremely speculative effort afterwards I believe? Whereas the reality is most teams teams would be happy to give up shots from those positions.

 

[Alan]

@Lupo

Como are popping up in the top 10 of a lot of these statistics; the hell's going on with that, do you know?

Very very similar figures circa 0.02 npxGA per minute of opposition possession for both. Think that's a slightly better reflection of quality of chances than SCA as a square pass 40 yards from goal could become a SCA by someone having an extremely speculative effort afterwards I believe? Whereas the reality is most teams teams would be happy to give up shots from those positions.

Included those for just such a follow up!

I like SCA for the comparison as the speculative effort you mention could very well be a product of tactical discipline of the side conceding the effort; IE, the shot-taker has no real options to choose from and so goes after something spectacular. That's a credit to defensive shape as much as anything, IMO.

 

[MARKakaJIM]

@Lupo

Como are popping up in the top 10 of a lot of these statistics; the hell's going on with that, do you know?


Included those for just such a follow up!

I like SCA for the comparison as the speculative effort you mention could very well be a product of tactical discipline of the side conceding the effort; IE, the shot-taker has no real options to choose from and so goes after something spectacular. That's a credit to defensive shape as much as anything, IMO.

I guess your higher SCA output/lower average xGA would be influenced by the state of the game too. If a game is only separated by a goal then perhaps teams are more likely to opt for speculative efforts, particularly late in the game, as they only need one to work out to regain parity. If you're miles behind then it probably deters players from taking those shots a bit more as why bother putting yourself there to be ridiculed when it's unlikely to affect the result?

I'm not expecting you to try and filter any data to have an attempt at unpicking that variable though!

 

[Alan]

It’s the great and terrible thing about football stats innit. You can always add more to the pile!

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Stats are shite. use your eyes.

 

[Tony Towner]

Stats are shite. use your eyes.

This is so, so wrong, but I'm with you grandad

 

[AndyWolves]

I thought the way the players hounded MO was awful and not something we'd have got away with in the same situation.

You're right they've created this situation for themselves, but they have with the way players hounding the ref is just allowed too.

That "third man to approach the ref gets booked thing" was actually a decent rule, but naturally it was an entirely bollicks situation all around.

If players were carded for being shit to refs it would soon stop, and might well have a positive impact down the pyramid too

 

[Alan]

Stats are shite. use your eyes.

You ignore either and you handicap your understanding, so I’ll keep referring to the stats as the useful piece of the puzzle they are. Sorry?

 

[lemonjelly]

I thought the way the players hounded MO was awful and not something we'd have got away with in the same situation.

You're right they've created this situation for themselves, but they have with the way players hounding the ref is just allowed too.

Very much this. At least 2 arsenal players manhandled/pushed oliver. He was surrounded by 7-8 players, yrt there was only 1 additional yellow. He came very close to losing control of the whole game.

Arsenal are a tough watch nowadays. A strange transition into a team that lacks all the silkiness and fluency they have shown for decades. All their strange grabing extra yards and so called game management (time wasting).

 

[The Bear]

Stats are shite. use your eyes.

Stats can show insight, but you have to back it up with your eyes or they can be misleading.

I'd go for something more like that.