Winter Improvement Thread (aka Winter Squad Weakening Thread and TWF Suicide Watch)

[Deutsch Wolf]

Not when Derby are chucking £20m+ at it.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

This is correct. The Glazers have taken hundreds of millions out of Man Utd since they took over but they got away with it because the club kept winning things. Doesn't look so flash now when they compare their squad with the likes of Barca, Real, Bayern and wonder what that money could have bought.

Look at the players mid-range PL clubs bought this summer; Cabaye, A Ayew, Shaqiri, Payet, Wijnaldum. That's where a huge chunk of the money will go, clubs like that will be able to sign players who were out of reach five years ago in terms of profile. Any owner refusing to engage in that market because they're going to take their share of the money personally will get strung up.

All of which would have been a coup de grace at wolves in the premier league and emphasizes my point about the money in football being the game changer but only if youre in the premier league. Buy your way there. If it costs you less than 100 million its worth it on current rates. Your club will triple in value , your turnover will triple and you get 140 million in revenue. No brainer

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Not when Derby are chucking £20m+ at it.

Peanuts compared to the rewards. They are a top 6 bet this year nailed on. They have a squad that has more depth and why? Cause they have spent and spent big as they recognize that the premier promised land is the place to be. We were 10 million off champions- thats whats galling

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Winter Improvement Thread 2015/2016

That's a shocking argument, you can't just throw money at it endlessly.

And as stated, Derby's owner can't very well pull that £20m back out next year if they do go up. Unless they want to be at a £20m disadvantage to everyone else.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

If a successful businessman believed it was that easy to triple the value of the club then they would do it, as you say it would be a no brainier.

That he hasn't done it is a huge hint that it isn't that easy.

 

[PuntsWolf]

That's a shocking argument, you can't just throw money at it endlessly.

And as stated, Derby's owner can't very well pull that £20m back out next year if they do go up. Unless they want to be at a £20m disadvantage to everyone else.

I've tried telling him this before...

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Meh- we can agree to disagree. Palace and Southampton with 52 million pre tax profit between them shows what is possible IMO despite winning nothing.

Southampton racked up 50 million of debt to get where they are backed by shareholder / owner loan.
Profit on ordinary activities after taxation was £33.4m (2013: £7.1m loss)
The balance sheet net assets were £31.8m (2013: £1.6m net liabilities)
Total revenue increased to £106m (2013: £71.8m) as a direct consequence of Broadcasting income increasing from £46.9m in 2012/13 to £79.4m in 2013/14
Commercial income has increased from £6.7m in 2012/13 to £8.3m in 2013/14
Operating costs to turnover improved to 78.2% (2013: 88.0%) while staffing costs to turnover also improved to 59.3% (2013: 65.5%)
Total Group wages, including players, increased from £41.4m in 2013 to £55.2m in 2014
Profit before player trading increased to £25.3m (2013: £8.6m). Player trading includes an exceptional cost of £6.2m relating to the impairment of player registrations

So they have doubled their income in 2 years. They are paying their owner back. They are buying players. Not such a disadvantage. I would rather be where they are with those figures than where we are now. And just in case you think I am completely mad here is the news http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-clubs-profits-soar-5817486

The figures show an average profit of 30 million per club 614 million divided by 20. They have never had it so good and its not going to change for a few years. Its going to get even better. However its the premier league not the championship where the money is. The telling quote people is "All but one of the 20 top flight clubs recorded an operating profit, with 14 making a pre-tax profit, with football’s contribution to the Treasury is revealed as £1.4billion in taxes." There are 14 clubs whose owners may disagree that you cant make money out of football

 

[Deleted Cyber]

That's a shocking argument, you can't just throw money at it endlessly.

And as stated, Derby's owner can't very well pull that £20m back out next year if they do go up. Unless they want to be at a £20m disadvantage to everyone else.

I am not saying endlessly.Its called an investment. Buy Wolves for 25 million this year. Promoted within 5 years. Give 10 million each year. Total investment 75 million. If you achieve promotion your club is instantly more attractive and worth considerably more than the 25 million initial outlay. Looking at current values you would at least have made your money back . Of course I agree you cannot guarantee promotion so it is a risk. Leeds Portsmouth, Rangers all borrowed heavily and paid the price. I am not and have never advocated that. I believe that a philanthropic owner with deep pockets and a long term vision could invest in Wolves and easily turn a profit given our current financial standing should the promotion dream be achieved. On promotion they could claw back 5 million a year for their 50 million investment whilst still watching the club expand.

Derby if they get promoted will be of higher value with higher income and higher turnover so the owners will see ROI in other ways.

 

[From Distant Shores]

There must be a flaw in your argument or else there would be a queue of philanthropists with 25 million quid in their pocket lining up to buy Wolves.

I suspect your average philanthropists isn't very interested on making money out of football clubs as they, rather short-sightedly, don't see Wolves as either a worthy cause or a good investment to make money to spend on worthy causes.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

There must be a flaw in your argument or else there would be a queue of philanthropists with 25 million quid in their pocket lining up to buy Wolves.

I suspect your average philanthropists isn't very interested on making money out of football clubs as they, rather short-sightedly, don't see Wolves as either a worthy cause or a good investment to make money to spend on worthy causes.

In previous years that may well have been correct but the premier league is awash with money now.

The flaw is taking over a club already ridden with debt. That is where Wolves have the advantage. Mark my words over the next 3 or 4 years some very wealthy people will buy into the premier league when clubs have less debt. Our advantage would be if an owner be it SM or another chucked 50 million at it we still wouldnt be as in debt as some. They are only now seeing a profit. Southampton had to come back from administration, Norwich have philanthropic owners, Leicester Billionaire owners Palace Swansea etc etc. You get my picture. All those clubs owners have carried the debt over the last few years and will now reap the rewards over the next few. As one of the best supported clubs in the championship with one of the highest turnovers and with a modest profit ( one of only championship clubs in profit) we are a better looking proposition than many think. The surprise is a businessman like SM wasn't willing to see it through. Not quite ruining the ship for a ha'peth of tar but on those lines.

Quite simply there has never been a better time to invest in a football club with premier potential IF the club has no or little debt. Villa have shed loads although they expect to be in the black soon then they will probably find another owner- that could be scuppered by relegation ( a few bits here http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/aston-villa-lost-in-supermarket.html )

Norwich- 23 million debt 4 years ago now wiped out.http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24466994

Southampton story here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...ague-season-pitch-one-biggest-winners-it.html

Palace story here http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/crystal-palace-ill-fly-for-you.html minimal debt that will be wiped out this year.

The common theme is that their owners took the punt and carried the debt

Right I will shut up now. Hopefully I can win Euromillions then invest in a championship club without debt and take them to the premier league making a few quid on the way!

 

[Donegal Wolf]

In previous years that may well have been correct but the premier league is awash with money now.

The flaw is taking over a club already ridden with debt. That is where Wolves have the advantage. Mark my words over the next 3 or 4 years some very wealthy people will buy into the premier league when clubs have less debt. Our advantage would be if an owner be it SM or another chucked 50 million at it we still wouldnt be as in debt as some. They are only now seeing a profit. Southampton had to come back from administration, Norwich have philanthropic owners, Leicester Billionaire owners Palace Swansea etc etc. You get my picture. All those clubs owners have carried the debt over the last few years and will now reap the rewards over the next few. As one of the best supported clubs in the championship with one of the highest turnovers and with a modest profit ( one of only championship clubs in profit) we are a better looking proposition than many think. The surprise is a businessman like SM wasn't willing to see it through. Not quite ruining the ship for a ha'peth of tar but on those lines.

Quite simply there has never been a better time to invest in a football club with premier potential IF the club has no or little debt. Villa have shed loads although they expect to be in the black soon then they will probably find another owner- that could be scuppered by relegation ( a few bits here http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/aston-villa-lost-in-supermarket.html )

Norwich- 23 million debt 4 years ago now wiped out.http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24466994

Southampton story here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...ague-season-pitch-one-biggest-winners-it.html

Palace story here http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/crystal-palace-ill-fly-for-you.html minimal debt that will be wiped out this year.

The common theme is that their owners took the punt and carried the debt

Right I will shut up now. Hopefully I can win Euromillions then invest in a championship club without debt and take them to the premier league making a few quid on the way!

If I won the Euromillions the last thing I would do is buy a football club, you would have to be fucking mental.

Stick in £25million and all you get is grief as to why you didnt stick in £50million, £50million why dont you stick in £100million you can afford it.

That's even if things go to plan on the field god help you if they dont.

I am sure there are people rich enough to buy Wolves but

a) no guarantee you will get a return on the serious amount of wedge you will invest (unless you get in the premiership)
b) do you need the grief from a load of ungrateful sods (thats football fans in particular not just Wolves)

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Absolutely. You could have a multi-billionaire come in, rebuild the ground to 80,000 capacity with the South Bank making the sudkurve at Dortmund look like Spotland, sign Messi and Suarez, and there would still be moans about why the fuck haven't we signed Cristiano Ronaldo. No ambition.

Football club ownership is a completely thankless task.

 

[nimrod]

In previous years that may well have been correct but the premier league is awash with money now.

The flaw is taking over a club already ridden with debt. That is where Wolves have the advantage.

i don't understand the logic. if you decide a business is worth 100 and it has debt of 60, then you can pay up to 40 for the equity. if there's no debt you can pay up to 100 for the equity. either way you haven't changed the business valuation. it's not the debt that's the problem. if you want it debt free you can pay off the debt and deduct any break cost from what you pay for the equity. a flaw would be ignoring that there's debt in a business, but then the flaw is not with the business being bought, it's with the valuation methodology.

 

[ROVERT47]

I think in the current era it tends to be a rich big boys toy, that was the case with Morgan I reckon, something he needed to get out of his system, which he has done.

 

[Norman Deeley]

Why Leeds and Wolves are the top investment attraction - Yorkshire Evening Post http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co....-and-wolves-are-the-top-attractions-1-7615274

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Also saying the "value of the club increases" is a fallacy, it's worth what someone else will pay for it. Logically Wolves should be worth more than the £30m Steve Morgan paid for us in 2007 given inflation and the work on the training ground and stadium, let alone how the financial landscape of football has altered in that time. Good luck getting that £30m+ Steve because it probably won't happen.

Chucking money at a club in the Championship is a fool's errand. Penny to a pound you will waste tons and exponentially every single year that you don't get promoted, that's more money you "owe" the owner if his aim is to get promoted and claw his money back over time, hence more money out of your own transfer and wage budget. It just doesn't work in the way you think it does.

 

[Lord Knows]

There will always be plenty of foolish football managers and scouts looking to spend millions of other persons pounds, then be unaccountable when things go tits up.
Who would you trust with a huge transfer budget, not bloody many.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

Why Leeds and Wolves are the top investment attraction - Yorkshire Evening Post http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co....-and-wolves-are-the-top-attractions-1-7615274

Well bugger me at least someone else agrees!

A LEADING football finance expert has claimed that Leeds United and Wolves are the two Championship clubs with the potential to attract major investment from big-money buyers

.

 

[Lord Knows]

Well bugger me at least someone else agrees! .

What is the situation with Massimo Cellino at Leeds, has he loaded that club up with debt, and could he just walk away from the club and its debt whenever he likes. You just wouldn't want your club run by a mad gambler would you?

 

[lemonjelly]

Also saying the "value of the club increases" is a fallacy, it's worth what someone else will pay for it. Logically Wolves should be worth more than the £30m Steve Morgan paid for us in 2007 given inflation and the work on the training ground and stadium, let alone how the financial landscape of football has altered in that time. Good luck getting that £30m+ Steve because it probably won't happen.

Chucking money at a club in the Championship is a fool's errand. Penny to a pound you will waste tons and exponentially every single year that you don't get promoted, that's more money you "owe" the owner if his aim is to get promoted and claw his money back over time, hence more money out of your own transfer and wage budget. It just doesn't work in the way you think it does.

Absolutely. We spent years buying more than one million pound player every season. It got us 7th perennially.

One manager threw even more millions at it, and got lucky for 1 season.

One more astute manager did a serious amount of bargain hunting, and despite arriving with a threadbare squad, acheived some amazing results though 100k bargains (Jemal Johnson, Kightly) topped up with the odd extravagance (SEB). Am I right in thinking in the championship the most Mick spent on anyone was Berra at just over 2 mill? Most of his purchases were 6 figures. Some of the best were also his cheapest.