Polls suggest that Trump is further behind in the popular vote than he was against Clinton, but still ahead in the swing States he needs. Every chance he loses the popular vote by more than last time and still gets in. The MAGA brigade aren't the focus at the moment with the rioting which is going on but you can be damn sure what side they are on, it'll help to cement his vote. He doesn't need to win the big cities, just keep the smaller towns, who seem happy to go for his brand of polorising rhetoric. He won Pennsylvania last time whilst losing in both of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Biden isn't popular, just not as unpopular as Clinton. He's looked physically old and weak during the Coronavirus months. America isn't ready for a Mayor Pete or a perceived socialist like Bernie, but I do feel the Dems have missed a trick by not going with a more energising candidate. The key to the election isn't Trump losing support its Biden getting the stay at home Dems of 2016 out in the right areas in the year of a pandemic. If I was betting on a result now it would be a second term.