I have some conflicting feelings about the season so far, some positive, some negative. This is coloured by the last two matches - a week ago it was possible to say "about a third of the season has gone past, and that's usually long enough to get a handle on a team's 'true' level, so I think we should expect top 6". The problem is that it's still possible to say "about a third of the season has gone past, etc. etc., so we need to be cautious about expecting top 6".
I'm swaying towards the current wobble being one of bad form, and therefore temporary, but I also think it's dreamland for anyone thinking that we're seriously going to be up there in the automatic places come May.
Deutsch's post in the Derby verdict thread has nailed a lot of the issues, so I won't reiterate those here, but suffice to say that the limitations of certain parts of the squad - and manager - are becoming apparent, and the January window is going to be key for addressing these issues.
The positives, then: we have, I think, a very good core of players, though not necessarily a
spine. Ikeme is usually a very good keeper, Evans and McDonald are one of the best midfield pairings in the league when they click, Golbourne's a great full-back (when he's allowed to play!), and Sako/Henry/VLP make us very strong in the wide areas. And, when this team manages to get a match to play at its preferred tempo, with the correct combination of players on the pitch, it's both great on the eye and effective both in defence and attack.
The negative, in that case, is that too much of our positive stuff is contingent on other things being OK. For example, against Derby there were at least a half dozen times Henry received the ball in the air and flicked it forward down the channel. (A lot of you were angry about this on the matchday thread.) That usually left the ball to go out of play for a goal kick or throw-in, but what I thought was crucial was that that's exactly the kind of ball Dicko wants - he'll chase those all day long, and he's managed to turn a few of those into crosses or passes which have in turn created goal-scoring opportunities.
Except, of course, Dicko isn't playing right now, and so Clarke doesn't play that way - he's not fast enough to chase a ball like that, or intuitive enough to know the ball's about to head that way - and so he sits in the middle of the pitch on his heels, waiting for the ball to be fed to him directly with a pass.
This isn't to say that Dicko would have won us that game against Derby, but I do think his presence would have meant the game played very differently because the entire structure of how we currently play relies on every cog in the machine doing its job. Our players, in other words, don't have much of a Plan B if the usual tricks aren't working, and for them to work relies on a chain of events where any single step can ruin the entire process.
We have a set number of attacking routines:
1) The fullbacks pass on to the wide player ahead of them and then run on beyond them to wait for the pass, and then fire that into the channels (for Dicko to chase) or cross it (for Dicko or Edwards to get on the end of and either fire at goal or knock down for the other to fire at goal).
2) The centre-backs pass to either Evans or McDonald, who then passes to the other (one sits deeper than the other, and that's usually McDonald), and they then pass it to Edwards who then tries to feed it through to Dicko OR, more commonly, feeds it out wide where it's then returned with a cross.
3) Either of the above, but Sako and Henry cut inside instead of crossing and try running at the full-backs to either force a foul or find the run of another player who can be passed to, who will then fire.
4) Sako does something unexpected.
Scouts from others teams will have seen this, and realised that there's an easy way to make sure we can't make this style work. Press us high up the pitch and close off the opportunities to pass forward either in the middle or the wings, and the result is what we saw last week against both Derby and Ipswich - a team that has to resort to passing it along the backline, back and forth, until someone gets bored and lumps it forward to one of the attacking four, who's usually half the length of the pitch away by this point as they try to escape the marking and pressing of the other team's midfield. Edwards can mitigate this to some extent by being able to run so much more than most other players, but I think that's why Jacobs isn't getting in the side right now - he's too lightweight to be able to act as he needs to, as the fulcrum around which the other parts of the team move.
Here's where Jackett's going to earn his money. He has to show he understands that we need to have a second plan for this kind of situation, as it's clear that without all the right players on the pitch and in form - Evans/McDonald to anchor, Edwards to shuttle back and forth as a connection, Dicko to chase and knock back, Sako to provide improvisation - we're easy to shut out. And when that happens we really shouldn't be surprised that two young centre-backs playing in this league for the first time are finding it a struggle, and are being outwitted by more experienced and mobile forwards. The Derby drubbing was telegraphed for weeks - at least as long ago as the Millwall result.
I thought before the season began we'd be top six, and I still think we will, but it'll be tight. Key to ensuring this will be the following:
1) Confidence. This squad is young, and confidence can, to an extent, compensate for skill or ability against tough opponents. We beat the three recently-relegated teams at the start of the season when our confidence was high and theirs was low, and that's not a coincidence. Jackett has to make sure heads don't drop. (And also, when we play the first FA Cup match in early January, *please* take it seriously - a good cup run with some comfortable wins against lower league teams, if we're drawn against them, will do us wonders.)
2) Signing players for positions we're weak. Especially right-back, no 10, striker. Doherty's limitations are now evident and Ricketts' experience and ability isn't the obvious step above the competition that it was last year, so we need a better right-back. We also need to find a number 10 who offers us something different to Edwards if Jacobs isn't going to make (and I like the guy, but I'm not sure he will). And, of course, we need a striker to replace Dicko. Not compete with - replace. I like Dicko, but he's not
that good, and his importance is (as I've said above) more about getting those around him to click instead of being someone who himself excels. I also think we need another centre-back. Batth and Stearman make a good partnership because they form the classic big lump/more nimble defensive duo, but if Stearman isn't the answer then we need to get someone else in. There are also questions to be asked about whether Batth is capable of playing at a higher level than this.
3) Tactics. As mentioned by others, Jackett now has to show what he can do - he's never had to face this kind of lull in form with Wolves, and his responses so far have been worrying. Iffy team selections, poor substitutions, and most troubling of all is his seeming inability to anticipate the tactical set-up of the opposition. He needs to up his game.
Fingers crossed here that the second half of the season is more 13/14 (from winning unconvincingly to winning with flair) than 12/13 (from winning unconvincingly to losing without dignity).