The NFL Thread

[Deutsch Wolf]

Harsh Daniel! So harsh!

Regarding say rugby officialdom, I don't think I really rant that much. You can easily get wound up and frustrated, but as a rule (bar that wanker Roland in the world cup semi final) I THINK the Union officials don't do a bad job at all.

You go on about forward passes and the like often enough! Prove me wrong this Six Nations.

I think cricket officals and rugby officials in the main are very good. They make mistakes but so does everyone. Football officials are poor verging on very poor. I have no idea where NFL sits on that scale.

 

[darlowolf64]

I have 30 years too - 1984 superbowl I watched as a Skins fan. Shame we got hideously owned by the Raiders that night. First superbowl on UK tv I think because Channel 4 started that year?

Aye... 30 years for me too. My brother was supporting the Skins that night and has ever since but it's always been the Bears for me

 

[Alan]

Christ, you lot are old!

 

[Alan]

Since 2007, the Patriots fumble only at a rate of once every 187 offensive snaps. This is literally off the charts. It is a statistical outlier right from a statistics textbook. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble.

The odds of such a statistical distribution were calculated at one in 16,233. That’s a comma, not a decimal. Sixteen thousand two hundred and thirty three to one.

The six players who have played extensively for the Patriots and other teams in this span all fumbled far less frequently wearing the New England uniform. Including recovered fumbles, Danny Amendola, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount have lost the ball eight times in 1,482 touches for the Patriots since 2010, or once every 185.3 times. For their other teams, they fumbled 22 times in 1,701 touches (once every 77.3)

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...ts-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

 

[Toon Wolf]

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...ts-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

I've read all of that analysis, the Cheatriots are off the charts when it comes to not fumbling the ball. Softer ball = better grip = fewer fumbles... Their cheating has been going on for years. Players who rarely fumbled when with them suddenly fumble, on average, on over 100 fewer touches. Coincidence? Not likely.

 

[Johnny75]

I've read all of that analysis, the Cheatriots are off the charts when it comes to not fumbling the ball. Softer ball = better grip = fewer fumbles... Their cheating has been going on for years. Players who rarely fumbled when with them suddenly fumble, on average, on over 100 fewer touches. Coincidence? Not likely.

You look desperate Toon, grasping at whatever theory is out there to discredit the Patriots. You are adding 2+2 and getting 78326518723451328746. A softer ball does mean better grip but it does not equal fewer fumbles, that could be any manner of things including better coaching. A softer ball tends to mean better throwing and catching but then they haven't been pulled up on it before this game so what makes you think they have done it on every game for the last 8 years!

You need to put your personal prejudice aside its embarrassing.

 

[Toon Wolf]

You look desperate Toon, grasping at whatever theory is out there to discredit the Patriots. You are adding 2+2 and getting 78326518723451328746. A softer ball does mean better grip but it does not equal fewer fumbles, that could be any manner of things including better coaching. A softer ball tends to mean better throwing and catching but then they haven't been pulled up on it before this game so what makes you think they have done it on every game for the last 8 years!

You need to put your personal prejudice aside its embarrassing.

You didn't even read the analysis did you? And if you think its embarrassing good for you. Your opinion matters not a bit to me, feel free to say the same about my opinion. I sicerely believe that Belichick will have a Lance Armstrong sized fall from grace. And even if he doesn't, there are enough question marks about his ethics and practices to see his legacy as flawed. Coaching alone does not equate to a 1 in 16,000 chance of coming up with this statistical data. You keep believing the spin, I'll keep questioning it.

 

[Alan]

I'm far from a conspiracy theorist but those fumble numbers made me double take hard.

 

[Johnny75]

I'm far from a conspiracy theorist but those fumble numbers made me double take hard.

There is clearly a method that the Patriots have come up with (legal or otherwise) that works for them. This could be any number of things from coaching to play sets to opportunity to fumble. The data does not analyse how many fumble opportunities to fumble there were. Blocking may be better, hits on the ball may be less. We don't know as the data is incomplete.

Equipment tampering would have been caught by now you would have thought. I would find it hard to believe that not one official in 8 years noticed a deflated ball and even if they did, would have been told to keep schtum by the Patriots hierarchy.

 

[Alan]

As far as blocking, I do think you've touched on the thing that has made the Patriots so damn good for so long: Kraft and Belichick actually recognize the importance of play along the line of scrimmage. Somehow these positions (offensive and defensive lines) go overlooked by other team's managements.

9 times out of 10 the game is won and lost based on how well you control the scrimmage line.

 

[Johnny75]

There's a reason the tackles are some of the highest paid in the game and it isn't always about protecting the QB. What I think the Pats and latterly Seattle do very well is open lanes for the runners to go free. NE haven't had a world class running back for seasons now but they always have good enough runners, look at what they did to the Colts last week. They demolished them at the line and in the back field so Vereen just ran through the holes.

Nothing in that but good planning and coaching.

 

[Alan]

FWIW it was Blount last week, not Vereen. Your point is still valid, tho.

 

[Toon Wolf]

Let's assume Johnny is right and the Patriots ability to not fumble the ball is all down to coaching. I wonder what happened to their coaching department in 2007 to lead to the incredible leap from 1 fumble per 42 touches in 2006 to one fumble per 74 touches in 2007? That's some great coaching that puts them so far ahead of every other outdoor stadium team in the league when previously they had been right there in the middle of the pack.

I'm absolutely certain that the fact that at the end of the 2006 season the rule was changed (after strong lobbying by Tom Brady funnily enough) to allow each team to provide their own balls when on offense is pure coincidence and has literally nothing to do with their sudden and dramatic improvement in fumbling. Nothing at all to do with it...


http://www.slate.com/articles/sport..._became_nearly_fumble_proof_after_a_2006.html

 

[Johnny75]

I presume you can find data to back up the deflated balls are easier to hold and fumble less. I presume you can also find data to prove why it is only NE that have benefitted from this rule change when any team can change their balls? (Why not Indy or Denver). I'm not saying it's right and the ball is the ball it should be regulated by the authorities not by teams.

Can you prove it isn't blocking schemes at NE? I am not saying the Pats aren't cheating but both articles you've referenced are using their data to back their theories not the other way around. They should be looking for holes in the data instead they call 2013 season an anomaly without referencing what weather effects have on footballs and why the game is different.

They may be good data analysts but they know fuck all about equipment and rules. One simple question that has not been asked is why haven't the Pats been caught in 8 years?

 

[Toon Wolf]

Warren Sharp ofsharpfootballanalysis.com is an industry pioneer at the forefront of incorporating advanced analytics and metrics into football analysis. A licensed Professional Engineer by trade, Warren applies the same critical thought process and problem solving techniques into his passion, football. After spending years constructing, testing and perfecting computer models written to understand the critical elements to win NFL football games, Warren's quantitative analytics are used in private consulting work, and elements of which are publicly shared on sharpfootballanalysis.com


Yeah, you know better than this guy about the credibilty of the data... :icon_rolleyes::screwy:

 

[Johnny75]

I don't believe I questioned his data ability Toon. It was his knowledge on equipment, ergonomics and the interaction between them.

Seeing Mr Sharps resume, I can safely conclude that his knowledge of equipment and ergonomics is limited at best and probably non existant.

You didn't answer my questions, can you prove the things I asked you above?

As an aside you might have noticed that the Pats interior lineman consistently make the Probowl. There is a reason for that, you may not like it.

 

[Toon Wolf]

I don't believe I questioned his data ability Toon. It was his knowledge on equipment, ergonomics and the interaction between them.

Seeing Mr Sharps resume, I can safely conclude that his knowledge of equipment and ergonomics is limited at best and probably non existant.

You didn't answer my questions, can you prove the things I asked you above?

As an aside you might have noticed that the Pats interior lineman consistently make the Probowl. There is a reason for that, you may not like it.

There have been all kinds of reports out there from players, coaches, scientists etc all saying that an under inflated ball improves grip significantly. You don't believe it? Your prerogative. Google Hall of Fame QB and TV commentator Troy Aikman's thoughts, among others. As for the quality of their o-line? They have been terrible for a good part of this year, yet amazingly the fumble stats are way, way, way out there. They're not just an outlier, they are practically in a different galaxy. The o-line will have virtually no affect on how likely a player is to fumble when he is hit. Because guess what, he is still getting hit!

Still, lets just swallow the spin and all agree that the Patriots are just THAT much better than EVERY other team in the league. Yeah, why not, let's just go with that... But tell me, if that is the case, why were they not THAT much better than everyone else BEFORE the rule change? Do please answer me that one.

 

[Carrotdude]

Patriots haven't won the superbowl in 10 years, they're hardly dominating the sport. Also if they've been cheating for 8 years how has no one involved in the organisation during that time not blown the whistle on them? Not a single one has any integrity whatsoever? Same goes for the officials, if they're being dodgy are you telling me not a single one has come out and said that people pressure them to make certain decisions?

 

[Johnny75]

You mean like the 3 Superbowls they won before the rule change?

Your argument is all over the place Toon. Are you saying the Pats used under inflated balls from 2006 onwards? If so how come they haven't won a Super Bowl since the rule change? Nobody has argued against under inflated balls giving an advantage, but can you answer me why it hasn't been picked up till now?

If you think the sport is corrupt why bother watching it?

 

[Toon Wolf]

You mean like the 3 Superbowls they won before the rule change?

Your argument is all over the place Toon. Are you saying the Pats used under inflated balls from 2006 onwards? If so how come they haven't won a Super Bowl since the rule change? Nobody has argued against under inflated balls giving an advantage, but can you answer me why it hasn't been picked up till now?

If you think the sport is corrupt why bother watching it?

You mean the 3 Superbowls they won BEFORE they were caught filming other teams practice sessions? Strangely, not one Superbowl win since Spygate. So they were caught, and lo and behold they push for and advocate a rule change that same year, which weirdly leads to them getting caught cheating in a way that makes use of the rule change they advocated. How fucking strange is that? As for why it hasn't been picked up before now? Because only the Patriots use the balls they provide, the other teams use their own legit balls! Virtually no-one touches them except the Patriots offense!

Do carry on being an ostrich though...

And as for why I keep watching it? Because I still love the excitement the sport brings, there isn't a sport anywhere that matches the excitement of an NFL game. And you know what else makes me keep watching it? Hope. Hope that things change, hope that cheats get caught and punished and that frauds like Kraft, Belichick and Brady don't entirely destroy the integrity of the game. They are a disgrace not just the NFL but to every sportsperson in every sport around tbe globe. And I say that as someone who coaches sport to kids for a living. They are the very antithesis of everything I teach and like Lance Armstrong did I hope they get their just rewards.