The NFL Thread

[Tony Towner]

I know Tony, you've been saying that the Eagles are bad for most of this season, but how did they go from 10-1 to being totally annihilated by the Bucs? Hurts looked like he has completely lost any confidence and the defense looks old and slow. Was their last win beating the Bills in week 12?

They beat the Giants with a half of Tommy Cutlets, if Tyrod had played the full game they'd have lost that as well

10-1 was always a mirage, but I won't repeat what I said when we last discussed it.

They massively over reacted to a couple of heavy defeats to SF and Dallas by binning the DC, that's not normal for a 10-3 team. Patricia has been an absolute disaster, rather than just taking over play calling, he's tried to install a new defense 2/3 of the way through the season for a team that's not capable of doing it. So you have ridiculous concepts like Reddick dropping into coverage, he's not a particularly sophisticated player, he rushes the QB and is OK against the run. That's what he's been paid to do and is one of only 4 players I think to have 10+ sacks in the last 4 years, but Patricia chooses to get all exotic. Nobody can tackle, they were borderline taking the piss out of it on last nights broadcast

On offense they cannot beat the blitz, there's no hot routes...ever, it's pathetic. 4 vertical runs and Hurts has no out ball, always has to throw over the top, or more likely roll to his right and chuck it away. That's on coaching, boy they miss Steichen.

Hurts is an interesting one, he's either injured or has been told or chosen to protect himself post contract. Taking the run out of his game, makes him a top half rather than top 5 QB. Also a lot of media talk about his personality, which is a bit unfair, but it's coming from within the organisation. Mr calm last year is Mr emotionless this. Taking a safety from a drive which started on the 14 yd line is a new one on me though. AJ Brown is a tremendous player, but when it's not going well his body language is piss poor, TO lite in that respect. Lane Johnson very heavily alluded to it post game.

Sirianni is very Philly, but it's a heart on the sleeve fan base. You behave like he does then you'll get all the love in the world when it's going well, but you'll be buried when it isn't. If any of the following happen he's toast imo
The DC sacking was all on him (I doubt it)
Hurts throws him under the bus
He refuses to let Roseman and Lurie pick his DC and OC (that's what did for Doug)

 

[Dire Wolf]

I can see how he got there. I don't agree, necessarily, but I don't personally find it that egregious a statement.

If Buffalo go on a run and just smoke everybody in the playoffs it wouldn't be horrifically shocking to me. I don't expect that to happen, though.

Just circling back to this: since 2020 the Bills record when they commit 0 turnovers is 17-0. Hence my statement, if they don't beat themselves, they win. It's an actual fact. But of course, Mr Know Everything (I dont mean you, Alan) will just put his laughing emojis and throw some condescending pile of shit insult and have no actual argument to prove me wrong.

 

[Alan]

More than one way to beat yourself, but keeping the turnovers at 0 certainly goes a long way to putting yourself in the "best position to win", as the cliché goes!

 

[Carrotdude]

Tbf there’s probably quite a few games this season where a team could say ‘if we hadn’t turned the ball over 3 times we’d have won’

 

[Dire Wolf]

Tbf there’s probably quite a few games this season where a team could say ‘if we hadn’t turned the ball over 3 times we’d have won’

Of course, but 17-0 when not turning the ball over is pretty concrete evidence that they if they don't make mistakes, they win. Literally 100% of the time over a 3 season period.

 

[Tony Towner]

Tbf there’s probably quite a few games this season where a team could say ‘if we hadn’t turned the ball over 3 times we’d have won’

The average team has 11 possessions a game so chucking any of those away is going to reduce your chance of winning. I don't know where Dire's stat of 17-0 sits in context, but I do know that Allen is an aggressive QB who is going to give up interceptions so in games he doesn't he's in all likelihood had a great game so no surprise they are going to win. Top 5 QB, which in games he's not having moments he's elite

 

[Alan]

Pretty sure the league average win rate when committing zero TOs is something like 86%. For whatever that's worth.

Likely confounding that number a bit: games in which both teams had zero TOs.

 

[Johnny75]

Pretty sure the league average win rate when committing zero TOs is something like 86%. For whatever that's worth.

Likely confounding that number a bit: games in which both teams had zero TOs.

Turnover stats per game.

 

[Jack Regan]

Cowboys sticking with McCarthy according to reports, very surprised about that. Jerry Jones obviously not down in the locker room ranting Steve Morgan style then.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I thought Jerry Jones would have fired everybody in sight. Quite surprised

 

[Tony Towner]

Yep, it's a surprise as no matter how well they do in the regular season they blow up every year in the play offs, I don't see why that will change.

Siaranni has yet to meet Lurie as the owner is in the Caribbean buying a new yacht returning today, or as its officially called 'logistical reasons'.

 

[Tony Towner]

Eagles OC Brian Johnson was interviewed by the Falcons today despite them already speaking to Belichik twice. Now he doesn't deserve the job he has and probably won't have it in a few days, but it's an example of the Rooney rule ticking boxes

 

[Alan]

McCarthy is an alright coach, IMO. He's been hard done by in Dallas with how they've let the offensive line deteriorate.

Not that I necessarily think he's Super Bowl material.

 

[Tony Towner]

What do people think this weekend? 4 home wins seems too obvious, but I don't know which game I'd predict to be the odd one out so I suppose I'm saying that. Odds too short to make it worth betting on though

 

[Jack Regan]

I'd have thought there's a case to be made for all the road teams. All have QB's capable of putting points on the board and the weakest of those in Baker Mayfield is probably is up against the weakest of the home QB.

The Chiefs Bills is a coin flip and likely comes down to who plays worse, Josh Allen or the Chiefs receiving core (although those injuries to the Bills secondary likely favours the Chiefs with their better D too).

 

[Tony Towner]

I'd have thought there's a case to be made for all the road teams. All have QB's capable of putting points on the board and the weakest of those in Baker Mayfield is probably is up against the weakest of the home QB.

The Chiefs Bills is a coin flip and likely comes down to who plays worse, Josh Allen or the Chiefs receiving core (although those injuries to the Bills secondary likely favours the Chiefs with their better D too).

First time Mahomes has played in an away stadium though and the Bills have won their last 6 games. I agree re the Lions game, but Tampa lost to NO at home and beat Carolina 9-0 in their last 2 regular season games, I'd park last week, I think it'll be a comfortable win for Detroit.

The one that interests me is the 49ers, I could see them winning by 25, but there's also a scenario where they are undercooked, go behind and Purdy collapses. 1-4 this season in 1 score games (although you can ignore the last one). The former is more likely, but the latter wouldn't shock me

 

[Jack Regan]

Yeah as a 49ers fan you could certainly see them struggling if the Packers get a fast start and they have to play catch-up (kinda like the Cowboys) and they can't rely on the running game to open up Green Bay first.

 

[Wolf Hunting]

What do people think this weekend?

I have Texans @ Ravens 24 - 27. I really want CJ Stroud to play a blinder but I think the Ravens have too much.
Even if the Texans score twice first, I think they'll get overtaken. Hope not but Head over Heart.

Packers @ 49ers: 24 - 21. I think the possibility of an upset is more likely in this game than the first.
Plus, I like the Packers and Love is playing knock out football now for 4 or 5 weeks.

Buccs @ Lions: 27 - 24. Not fussed about either of them but I thing Mayfield has dragged the Buccs back from the brink
and they'll over come the strong Lions defence.

Chiefs @ the Bills. 29 - 31. If Allen plays like he did last week, I think the Bills have enough to overcome the Chiefs.
Also bit of a busy time coming up for the lovebirds and Swift's calendar in Tokyo is looking a bit tight for Kelce!

 

[Alan]

Just the one 'c' in "Bucs".

 

[Tony Towner]

Just the one 'c' in "Bucs".

That's what you picked up on???