The NFL Thread

[Deano]

Can anyone who knows more than me explain to me why, in almost every game where a team needs a score in the last minute or so of a game, the defence seems to sit so deep and almost allow long passes to get them up the field in 2/3 plays? Not sure if I’ve explained that properly…

That usually happens when there is a very small amount of time left and it doesn't really matter if the team chasing completes shorter passes in the middle of the field as it will keep the clock running so they are just protecting the sides to prevent them stopping the clock and obviously the end zone to stop them scoring.

 

[Carrotdude]

Fair, it just seems like whenever I watch a close game it takes no effort at all to get into FG range

 

[Dire Wolf]

Fair, it just seems like whenever I watch a close game it takes no effort at all to get into FG range

In some games the defense allows it to happen in 13 seconds...

 

[PuntsWolf]

Fair, it just seems like whenever I watch a close game it takes no effort at all to get into FG range

All depends on the scenario. Is a FG going to win it, tie it or mean they are still going to need an onside kick.

For the latter two they don’t want to get beat over the top to lose/ get them close from a quick score so allow underneath stuff and then the shorter the field is the harder it is, bit like parking the bus in football. Plus as Deano says that takes time off the clock. If you’re up two scores then you’ll let them have loads of plays as long as you don’t get beat deep as each play kills time.

Then you factor in offence playing high tempo so defence is unorganised, no subs, minimal input from sidelines and therefore even more safe play. Plus the defence is gassed and/or send less rush and therefore players get open easily as you can’t cover them forever and they play soft coverage.

 

[Carrotdude]

Soft coverage is the term I was looking for! I just feel like from what I’ve seen it never really works - that plus the offence basically giving possession back with 3 runs for no gain as they’re intent on running the clock down.

I guess there’s a reason teams do it and it works more than it doesn’t but a bit like in football I do wonder why change what’s worked well for the rest of the game just for the last 5 minutes

 

[Dire Wolf]

It is infuriating when it fails. There is a saying that the only thing prevent coverage prevents is your team winning. But it must work more often than not or teams just wouldn't do it. In this age of analytics coaches will know the odds.

 

[PuntsWolf]

It’s just playing the percentages. It does work you just only remember when it doesn’t. Plus if you’re up against someone like Mahomes then he’ll score regardless (except he didn’t last night…), but you’re making it even easier for him with 90 seconds rather than 30.

Not exactly the same but If the Falcons had just run it 3x with a 28-3 lead they’d have won the superbowl. Instead tried to be clever, got sacked out of FG range and then had to pass stopping the clock. So didn’t make it 31-3 and didn’t run two minutes off clock either.

 

[WsWolf]

It works more often than not.

 

[Carrotdude]

I think that’s probably the right summary - you remember it not working a lot more than the other way. maybe as a Vikings fan I’ve seen it fail more often than not, especially under Zimmer

 

[Johnny75]

I think that’s probably the right summary - you remember it not working a lot more than the other way. maybe as a Vikings fan I’ve seen it fail more often than not, especially under Zimmer

I can't be having Vikings fans whining when they essentially just clinched the division and look good for the 2nd seed.

Especially in a conference that only has 7 teams above 500.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Teams often do play action then sneak a backup TE out into the flat. But if this then fails then the coach gets more grief than if they ran it for no gain!

And if a top level LB diagnoses this then he can break it up or even pick it off for 6!

Run it 3x, punt and trust your D. If you’re up against a top offence or your defence isn’t all that but your offence is good then coaches often do the high risk high reward plays.

 

[Carrotdude]

I can't be having Vikings fans whining when they essentially just clinched the division and look good for the 2nd seed.

Especially in a conference that only has 7 teams above 500.

Ah see now my moan was more about previous seasons, and the tactic in general. This year everything is working perfectly despite the close margin of every game!

 

[Johnny75]

Ah see now my moan was more about previous seasons, and the tactic in general. This year everything is working perfectly despite the close margin of every game!

It's exciting for us neutrals!

Got to be feeling it's your year with the amount of late wins you've had.

 

[Deano]

It's exciting for us neutrals!

Got to be feeling it's your year with the amount of late wins you've had.

I follow the Vikings and I am not expecting them to go deep in the play offs. They've done superbly to be 10-2 and there's a lot to be said for finding different ways to win close games like they have but falling to sleep for massive chunks of games as they do isn't sustainable especially when coming up against some of the better teams in the play offs. Hopefully they can play most of the play off games at home and get some luck along the way.

A lot to be encouraged about long term though as some of the young talent they've accumulated should see them in good stead for a while.

 

[Johnny75]

I follow the Vikings and I am not expecting them to go deep in the play offs. They've done superbly to be 10-2 and there's a lot to be said for finding different ways to win close games like they have but falling to sleep for massive chunks of games as they do isn't sustainable especially when coming up against some of the better teams in the play offs. Hopefully they can play most of the play off games at home and get some luck along the way.

A lot to be encouraged about long term though as some of the young talent they've accumulated should see them in good stead for a while.

Jefferson looks the real deal. Unreal some of the catches he's made.

 

[Tony Towner]

I think that’s probably the right summary - you remember it not working a lot more than the other way. maybe as a Vikings fan I’ve seen it fail more often than not, especially under Zimmer

Normally they sit deep and also wide as they want any reception to be caught and the receiver stay in bounds so the clock isn't stopped unless there is a timeout. I think your broader point is a fair one in this day and age though against the elite QBs who have turned 2 minute drills into 1 minute. It's probably still the right thing to do against anyone below that level though

 

[Tony Towner]

I follow the Vikings and I am not expecting them to go deep in the play offs. They've done superbly to be 10-2 and there's a lot to be said for finding different ways to win close games like they have but falling to sleep for massive chunks of games as they do isn't sustainable especially when coming up against some of the better teams in the play offs. Hopefully they can play most of the play off games at home and get some luck along the way.

A lot to be encouraged about long term though as some of the young talent they've accumulated should see them in good stead for a while.

Before this weekend I think their D was ranked something like 30th in the NFL, so any play off game is likely to have to be a score fest. Plus it'll be Cousins in prime time. All that said you'd sign up for a wild card round against say Washington and a Divisional Round against the 49ers on their 3rd string QB both at home, whilst Dallas and Philadelphia likely beat themselves up in the other game

 

[Alan]

Mayfield released by Carolina.

 

[Johnny75]

Mayfield released by Carolina.

Bloody hell, how has his career nosedived so badly

 

[Tony Towner]

I wonder if the 49ers will take the risk on waivers? Initially as the backup