The Incoming Transfers Everywhere Thread: Summer 2023

[Elephant Pyjamas]

On the basis that last season’s accounts don’t have to be published until March 2024 and this season’s until March 2025 you won’t see a definitive answer until then. Estimates have us well within limits for last season and £100m of sales for this season leaves means the same applies.
The CEO can bullshit as most will have forgotten by the time 2025 comes around and shit journalists can’t be arsed to do some digging so just parrot what they have been told.

22/23 wasn't within the limits of FFP, i know there is more to it than just transfers, but our net spend was over £100mil, that wasn't sustainable, we were always going to have to reign it in this season, it's just to what extent.

 

[Tony Towner]

I did ask a similar question last week, and the same people who take the piss out of people for "believing" the club, couldn't produce a reasonable set of figures to prove it either way.

Now, given that we've pulled in £93million this summer and shaved around £30mill off the wage bill, like you i think Fosun are taking the piss, however we did also spend a shit tonne in the prior 2 windows on the other side of the argument.

What i do want to know is what has changed between Hobbs saying we had an 8-15mil basket we were shopping in, and then suddenly even that was too much, that CAN'T be because of FFP, well unless we are ran by complete incompetents, something has changed from up above, it must have.

But until a journalist or even a decently followed X (!!) user brings Fosun to task about this, the narrative will continue to be controlled by Fosun, so i don't blame those who do believe Fosun's line, and it's pretty arrogant to take the piss out of those that do.

If it's arrogant to look down at those who care passionately about their football team, but yet accept everything they tell them without actually taking the time to examine those pretty simple facts then chalk me down as arrogant. Rather that than gullible

 

[Johnny75]

22/23 wasn't within the limits of FFP, i know there is more to it than just transfers, but our net spend was over £100mil, that wasn't sustainable, we were always going to have to reign it in this season, it's just to what extent.

You clearly don't understand football economics. No shame in that.

Try Swiss Ramble and Keiran Maguire who are very astute with numbers and are quite brilliant economists and analysts.

Lastly, you asked for people to produce numbers, have you ever asked yourself why the club haven't produced anything credible?

 

[Wolftone]

......anyway, I thought West Ham played to their strengths against a formidable Chelsea side. Sterling was particularly good.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

You clearly don't understand football economics. No shame in that.

Try Swiss Ramble and Keiran Maguire who are very astute with numbers and are quite brilliant economists and analysts.

Lastly, you asked for people to produce numbers, have you ever asked yourself why the club haven't produced anything credible?

Neither the Swiss Ramble or Maguire have produced anything regarding Wolves for a long while, unless i'm mistaken? I was looking the other day.

As i've said, I don't believe the Fosun line personally, i'm far too cynical and negative to, but i do understand why others DO believe it, particularly after two significantly high spending windows.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

If it's arrogant to look down at those who care passionately about their football team, but yet accept everything they tell them without actually taking the time to examine those pretty simple facts then chalk me down as arrogant. Rather that than gullible

What simple "facts"? That's the problem, there aren't any "facts", and won't be for a good while yet.

 

[Johnny75]

Neither the Swiss Ramble or Maguire have produced anything regarding Wolves for a long while, unless i'm mistaken? I was looking the other day.

As i've said, I don't believe the Fosun line personally, i'm far too cynical and negative to, but i do understand why others DO believe it, particularly after two significantly high spending windows.

Why don't these OTHER people question the figures and ask why the cob haven't produced anything credible to hang their myth on?

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

You clearly don't understand football economics. No shame in that.

Try Swiss Ramble and Keiran Maguire who are very astute with numbers and are quite brilliant economists and analysts.

Lastly, you asked for people to produce numbers, have you ever asked yourself why the club haven't produced anything credible?

This is the latest Maguire article regarding Wolves

Wolves 'concerns' revealed by Kieran Maguire after Lopetegui exit

Football Insider has been told by Kieran Maguire that Wolves 'destroyed their budget' by spending so heavily in the January 2023 window.

www.footballinsider247.com

 

[Johnny75]

This is the latest Maguire article regarding Wolves

Wolves 'concerns' revealed by Kieran Maguire after Lopetegui exit

Football Insider has been told by Kieran Maguire that Wolves 'destroyed their budget' by spending so heavily in the January 2023 window.

www.footballinsider247.com

That's just an opinion piece from him before we'd recouped nearly £100m in fees and slashed nearly £30m off the wage bill.

Of course the £152m is not net nor is it amortised.

But we've been down this road before and it's not worth doing every week.

 

[Tony Towner]

What simple "facts"? That's the problem, there aren't any "facts", and won't be for a good while yet.

The facts are the club want you to believe we are going to lose up to £126m across the last 2 seasons. The facts are we therefore need to make a profit of £21m this window. The facts are we have made a trading profit without amortisation of £42m this window and saved between £20 and £30m in wages. So unless you believe we make a loss without trading, which would be some effort with a £120m or thereabouts tv contract then we are £20m or so clear even if the wage savings are offset by a Lopetegui pay off and the wages of the Jan signings. The facts speak for themselves

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

It's 6 days old.

The only reason it's been brought up again is because there wasn't a satisfactory conclusion to it last time, and it's the most important aspect of why things are the way they are at the moment, it's why Lop left and it's why we only have 3 CBs.

 

[Johnny75]

It's 6 days old.

The only reason it's been brought up again is because there wasn't a satisfactory conclusion to it last time, and it's the most important aspect of why things are the way they are at the moment, it's why Lop left and it's why we only have 3 CBs.

It isn't, the original article is older and the article you've cited is a rehash of that.

You may not have had a satisfactory conclusion and that's up to you, everybody else was satisfied the club are talking out of their arse and how the numbers don't add up.

You do keep ignoring my question of why the club haven't produced anything credible to hang their myth on and why people believe that? Any chance?

 

[prawnking]

......anyway, I thought West Ham played to their strengths against a formidable Chelsea side. Sterling was particularly good.

Just goes to show no game is a dead loss

 

[PuntsWolf]

Right well let’s just use the figures from 21/22 as a guide.

Turnover - £165m
Wages - £120m
Player Trading - (-£50m)

So let’s assume turnover is the same (it won’t be).
Wages is hard to Judge as we let a lot of medium to big earners out (Donk, Boly, Saiss, Marcal, Ruddy, Cutrone, Coady, Hoever, Trincao).

But Costa, Sasa, Collins, and Nunes, followed by Lemina, Dawson, Cunha, Sarabia came in. Let’s say it went up £10m (random figure, not even educated guess).

Player trading. Spent c. £160m. Received c. £50m. So let’s say amortisation went up £40m (can’t be arsed to work it out), but we probably offset most of it with increased sales on the previous year.

So a loss somehere similar to the previous year. But let’s go with the doomsday £80m loss which has been mentioned.

So for this year, Before we consider anything else, a £30m reduction in wages makes it £50m then £100m in sales makes it +£50m, before we even consider the increased non player trading revenue. Some of those players will have had money still on the balance sheet so it won’t be pure profit. But the MGW and Boly bonus, the Neves,Coady and Giles fees are the majority of it anyway. If we just take the Collins and Raul fees out as I think they are around break even then we are at +£20m, still within in £105m limit with the increased revenue.

I don’t believe the -£80m anyway, and I’ve leaned to the low side on figures in and the opposite on figures out so it should be better than what I’ve put there.

That’s taken me way longer than I thought it would and cba to proof read. There you go @Elephant Pyjamas

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

It isn't, the original article is older and the article you've cited is a rehash of that.

You may not have had a satisfactory conclusion and that's up to you, everybody else was satisfied the club are talking out of their arse and how the numbers don't add up.

You do keep ignoring my question of why the club haven't produced anything credible to hang their myth on and why people believe that? Any chance?

It's the lack of information, the lack of good journalism and the lack of it being questioned is what is leaving me unsatisfied.

I want to see more answers from the club, the Shi letter was a farce, particularly as it came before Lop left, and then there is the refusal on Napoli's offer to Kilman, it's hard to be satisfied when there are so many aspects of it that don't make sense!

 

[Johnny75]

It's the lack of information, the lack of good journalism and the lack of it being questioned is what is leaving me unsatisfied.

I want to see more answers from the club, the Shi letter was a farce, particularly as it came before Lop left, and then there is the refusal on Napoli's offer to Kilman, it's hard to be satisfied when there are so many aspects of it that don't make sense!

I agree with the journalism bit. But then client reporters are embarrassing the whole world not just a football club in the middle of England

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

I just don't understand what Fosun are up to, we are such a tiny part of their global portfolio.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Right well let’s just use the figures from 21/22 as a guide.

Turnover - £165m
Wages - £120m
Player Trading - (-£50m)

So let’s assume turnover is the same (it won’t be).
Wages is hard to Judge as we let a lot of medium to big earners out (Donk, Boly, Saiss, Marcal, Ruddy, Cutrone, Coady, Hoever, Trincao).

But Costa, Sasa, Collins, and Nunes, followed by Lemina, Dawson, Cunha, Sarabia came in. Let’s say it went up £10m (random figure, not even educated guess).

Player trading. Spent c. £160m. Received c. £50m. So let’s say amortisation went up £40m (can’t be arsed to work it out), but we probably offset most of it with increased sales on the previous year.

So a loss somehere similar to the previous year. But let’s go with the doomsday £80m loss which has been mentioned.

So for this year, Before we consider anything else, a £30m reduction in wages makes it £50m then £100m in sales makes it +£50m, before we even consider the increased non player trading revenue. Some of those players will have had money still on the balance sheet so it won’t be pure profit. But the MGW and Boly bonus, the Neves,Coady and Giles fees are the majority of it anyway. If we just take the Collins and Raul fees out as I think they are around break even then we are at +£20m, still within in £105m limit with the increased revenue.

I don’t believe the -£80m anyway, and I’ve leaned to the low side on figures in and the opposite on figures out so it should be better than what I’ve put there.

That’s taken me way longer than I thought it would and cba to proof read. There you go @Elephant Pyjamas

Thanks for taking the time Punts, now, assuming this is all correct, and i've no reason to believe it isn't.

WHY are Fosun telling us it's FFP?

If it is the Chinese economy, why aren't they being honest about that? If they DO want to sell, then why aren't they being honest about that? If Jeff Shi has made a big fuck up (aside from his general running of the club) why hasn't he been sacked?

 

[Kenny]

I just don't understand what Fosun are up to, we are such a tiny part of their global portfolio.

My guess.
Fosun got involved in football because the Government went mad on the sport and wanted huge Chinese involvement. They then got bored as it wasn't taking off in China like they wanted.
Currently they are not wanting Chinese companies to invest heavily in projects outside of China.
Guo has already experienced the hospitality when he has annoyed those in charge. Guessing he wants to avoid that again.
So a little bit of FFP with a huge dose of being terrified of Jinping.
Not going to say that so go all in on FFP and ensure local client journalists play the game.

Probably bollocks but fuck it, no real reason out there and that's as likely as any other.

 

[Nando]

Digne off to Nice, which should end their pursuit of Ait Nouri.