The Incoming Transfers Everywhere Thread: Summer 2023

[Deutsch Wolf]

Imagine any player coming in on loan.

Club PR: "What attracted you to this great club?"

Player: "Honestly? Nothing. I wanted to stay where I was, but the manager there is a bitch-ass punk."

I can see how that would endear him to the fans.

 

[The Bear]

Hostage video vibes.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Did you miss the bit where I actively used words like fantasy island, silly, and nonsense?

The whole thing shows how ridiculous deals can massively change FFP calculations. It’s the sort of place the Arthur-Pjanic swap deal seemed to go. (although that was even darker and murkier)

No I didn’t. Your examples were fantasy land nonsense, but the general view that big sale = your fine for FFP, so you can then amortise loads of transfer spend isn’t right. You can In the short term but it just puts you in a hole at some point.

I’m not saying you’ve said this directly here, but it’s definitely a view that gets trotted out on here, whilst completely missing the bigger picture.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

No I didn’t. Your examples were fantasy land nonsense, but the general view that big sale = your fine for FFP, so you can then amortise loads of transfer spend isn’t right. You can In the short term but it just puts you in a hole at some point.

I’m not saying you’ve said this directly here, but it’s definitely a view that gets trotted out on here, whilst completely missing the bigger picture.

Yeah, you don't want short term thinking or the taps on/off mentality as we discussed a couple of weeks back.

If I sold our car then I could afford to take Mrs DW to New York on holiday, but when we get back from what I'm sure would be a lovely week, we've got no car and no money to replace it.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Yeah, you don't want short term thinking or the taps on/off mentality as we discussed a couple of weeks back.

If I sold our car then I could afford to take Mrs DW to New York on holiday, but when we get back from what I'm sure would be a lovely week, we've got no car and no money to replace it.

Yep and as stupid as it is (back to fantasy land stuff) you could have tons of cash in the bank after making £100m in year 1, £100m in year 2 then decide to spend in year 3 and make a £50m loss and again another £50m loss in year 4. Then for year 5 you’ll have to break even because you’ve lost £100m total in the previous 2 seasons even though you made fuck loads in the two years before that accounting period.

The system isn’t fit for purpose but everyone (the clubs) know the rules so you know what you’re up against.

Don’t end up in a situation where you’ve neglected the squad, then spent a fuck load on dross, then have to spend a further fuck load to fix the short term mess, then have nothing to sell to “balance the books”.

They got complacent. Finishing 7th and turning profits, “look how easy this is!”. So now we’re making losses and are awful, so still need to spend and those profit years are going to drop off too

 

[Kenny]

Yeah, you don't want short term thinking or the taps on/off mentality as we discussed a couple of weeks back.

If I sold our car then I could afford to take Mrs DW to New York on holiday, but when we get back from what I'm sure would be a lovely week, we've got no car and no money to replace it.

Buses and trains my friend....always a way


Yours Jeff Shi x

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Buses and trains my friend....always a way


Yours Jeff Shi x

I'll leave you to deal with the after sales package on my brilliant plan.

 

[Kenny]

Just Jeff it. Don't mention the problems further down the line, sell the dream of that trip away. Sure Mrs DW will have a grumble when she gets home but she won't get another you so going to have to get on with it, enjoy the memories, accept it won't get better than that and slum it on a bus to Birmingham for work.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

It's true, there isn't another me. This is probably good news for the planet.

Would it be too outlandish to hope for £70m or so out of Sa, Kilman, RAN and Guedes? Because I don't care about any of them leaving (RAN purely because Lop clearly doesn't like him, so it's pointless him being here and steadily losing value).

 

[Alan]

Even with Mendes Magic, how much could Benfica possibly afford to give us for the Four Polygon Wonder?

 

[Kenny]

Kilman we have to ask north of £25m
RAN we lose 50% of his fee I believe and doubt he can attract much more than we paid right now
Sa - Could easily ask £15m for him
Guedes - We fucked it up here and now we will forever be stuck in a Mendes loan cycle with him. Only hope of anything is Jorge persuading Valencia (now they are safe) to take him back and pay what we essentially owe them.

 

[Kenny]

Even with Mendes Magic, how much could Benfica possibly afford to give us for the Four Polygon Wonder?

Benfica that have recently sold £200m worth of players? One making a £100m profit in just 6 months....after Jorge's cut, could probably stretch to £15m but they will just do loan deals if they can for Guedes

 

[Alan]

Benfica that have recently sold £200m worth of players? One making a £100m profit in just 6 months....after Jorge's cut, could probably stretch to £15m but they will just do loan deals if they can for Guedes

I was thinking a lot of that 200m was sunk already? Didn't they have debts or something?

 

[Kenny]

They always have debts but the Enzo money was a bonus for them.

 

[Johnny75]

Benfica that have recently sold £200m worth of players? One making a £100m profit in just 6 months....after Jorge's cut, could probably stretch to £15m but they will just do loan deals if they can for Guedes

Loan Guedes out for 4 years at £3m per year + wages.

Best we can hope for

 

[Johnny75]

They always have debts but the Enzo money was a bonus for them.

As will the Ramos money when they sell him to somebody.

 

[PuntsWolf]

It’s really difficult to say. You’d say someone like Sarabia is more than £5m, but he wasn’t. You’d say Cunha was £30m max, but he wasn’t.

We haven’t even been able to give a current England international with tons of experience and leadership away for £5m.

The issue is always where’s the market for these players. If PL clubs don’t want them and they’re not good enough for the foreign elite then there is no market at big values.

RAN and Sa are probably money back. Kilman fuck knows as we don’t even want him in our team but if Spurs want him then £25m seems achievable.

Guedes is on too big a wage and the 1 year into his deal means we can’t actually afford to sell him. Have to loan him out and hope all/most of his wages are covered.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I think Sa would be a profit, he drives me up the wall but he only cost us £7m. You could get double that surely, most clubs won't have cottoned on that he plays like a parks level keeper once every four games.

 

[Johnny75]

It’s really difficult to say. You’d say someone like Sarabia is more than £5m, but he wasn’t. You’d say Cunha was £30m max, but he wasn’t.

We haven’t even been able to give a current England international with tons of experience and leadership away for £5m.

The issue is always where’s the market for these players. If PL clubs don’t want them and they’re not good enough for the foreign elite then there is no market at big values.

RAN and Sa are probably money back. Kilman fuck knows as we don’t even want him in our team but if Spurs want him then £25m seems achievable.

Guedes is on too big a wage and the 1 year into his deal means we can’t actually afford to sell him. Have to loan him out and hope all/most of his wages are covered.

Sunk cost fallacy.

For every year we have him we lose value. Selling him makes perfect sense whilst age and ability (for what it's worth) is still on his side.

And of course we can afford to sell him, keeping him makes far less sense on every level.

 

[Kenny]

There is a simple way to cut at least 75% of his errors from his game.....stop asking him to play out from the back, especially if the opposition are known for a high press

Rest is just stuff that can;t be stopped. Switching off when 2 down or watching his teammates lose their head and thinking "Yeah I can beat that level of panic" nothing you can do