Farage Ltd and Similar Watch

[Templeton Peck]

Yet after five years of "dreadful government" poll after poll still says the voters trust the Conservatives more than Labour on the economy. And Miliband has managed to get poll ratings as low as Michael Foot.

UKIP and SNP could well be the kingmakers at the election.

And yet in a recent poll most people favoured Labour's economic policies. Voters trust the Conservatives more on the economy because they are portrayed as competent whilst Labour are portrayed as numpties by a media largely sympathetic to the Tories.

 

[Premier Quality]

There is not an earthly chance of Cameron winning an election outright. He couldn't do it after 13 years of Labour government, in the midst of a recession, with a deeply unpopular PM at the helm. After five years of dreadful government he isn't doing it now.

True deutsch, but he wasn't facing dead ed at the time - he's the Tories best electoral weapon.

 

[Premier Quality]

and that is the point. completely. UKIP are a bye-election irritant, and no more than that.

Isn't that what this boards been saying for the last three years, yet each time their share of the vote keeps on climbing...

 

[thehistorymakers]

UKIP won't get 5 MP's when push comes to shove. If the Tories need a partner it'll be the Lib Dems again with the dozen or so they'll have left.

But UKIP are predicted to get between 14 to 19% of the votes in the next election. More than double the gutless Liberals.

 

[thehistorymakers]

UKIP won't get 5 MP's when push comes to shove. If the Tories need a partner it'll be the Lib Dems again with the dozen or so they'll have left.

But UKIP are predicted to get between 14 to 19% of the votes in the next election. More than double the gutless Liberals.

 

[Stan Hullis]

I don't know whether it is just the circles that I work in and socialise in but I haven't met a single UKIP supporter yet.

Most people I know hate Nigel Farage.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

It is first past the post not proportional representation. 14% doesn't necessarily mean a bucket load of seats.

 

[Templeton Peck]

Isn't that what this boards been saying for the last three years, yet each time their share of the vote keeps on climbing...

It's more about our broken electoral system than the level of support though. UKIP would need to more then double their vote and for Con and Lab support to drop to 25% for them to be the largest party. UKIP are also very marmite - I think it's already been stated on this thread that they have the largest percentage of people who would never vote for them. Labour and the Conservatives are both less toxic.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Absolutely correct. I could just about envisage a situation that could occur where I might be tempted to vote labour. I could never envisage the situation occurring where I could possibly consider a vote for UKIP.

 

[NorwayFB]

I know it's not directly comparable but our Tory and our UKIP party (although they've built a political manifest over the years so they're a bit further along) have been governing in cahoots now for a year.
It's been car crash after car crash,polls showing both have lost almost half of their support a year ago.

It's a bit odd,noone likes what they're doing.Back to Labour it will be then.I don't like any party but Labour does tend to be best for "most people".

Me out,as you were.

 

[Lord Knows]

A Banker, UKIP supporter and immigrant were sitting at a table sharing twelve biscuits, the Banker took eleven and said to the UKIP supporter watch out for that immigrant they are after your biscuit.

 

[thehistorymakers]

I don't know whether it is just the circles that I work in and socialise in but I haven't met a single UKIP supporter yet.

Most people I know hate Nigel Farage.

Maybe it's regional. Where I stay, when I stay in the UK , wasn't affected by the recession under Thatcher. Only in the last 15 years have they seen a big increase in immigration. Bricklayers were on £150 a day in the early 80's, while they were earning 40 or £50 a day in the Midlands.
The south has been affected hard this time. Young people are finding it hard to find work. Both white working class and well off people are angry. Many that I spoke to, blame immigration and even immigrants for their decline in living standards. I have one business friend, who is very wealthy. He has started to go to UKIP meetings. I said to him that if UKIP won, the economy would suffer. He looked at me and said "Fuck the economy, I want my country back"
There are both Labour and Tory voters who are now backing UKIP. There are poor and rich.I won't be voting for them, but to deny or to belittle their support, won't make them go away.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I don't think you can belittle the support. However, and I think this has been said several times, there are vast swathes of the voting population who wouldn't touch them with a ten foot bargepole. You are either a UKIP supporter or take an "anybody but UKIP" view from what I can see. That 19% is probably as good as it will ever get for them.

 

[Premier Quality]

O

There are both Labour and Tory voters who are now backing UKIP. There are poor and rich.I won't be voting for them, but to deny or to belittle their support, won't make them go away.

Would you say it's arrogance or ignorance? I'm never quite sure.

It's more about our broken electoral system than the level of support though. UKIP would need to more then double their vote and for Con and Lab support to drop to 25% for them to be the largest party. UKIP are also very marmite - I think it's already been stated on this thread that they have the largest percentage of people who would never vote for them. Labour and the Conservatives are both less toxic.

Whilst that may be true, this won't be a standard election - there will be a massive amount of tactical voting this year, as labour, Tory and lib dem previously safe seats become possible to take. And if voter apathy continues and results in a low turnout, pretty much anything can happen. Plus I don't think anyone's saying ukip will get a majority, just that's entirely possible they could be big enough to be influential.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I don't think you can belittle the support. However, and I think this has been said several times, there are vast swathes of the voting population who wouldn't touch them with a ten foot bargepole. You are either a UKIP supporter or take an "anybody but UKIP" view from what I can see. That 19% is probably as good as it will ever get for them.

Also, we are less than six months from an election and they still have virtually no policies committed to paper. The media have given them an incredibly easy ride up to now...but they can't get away with that forever. If they want credibility as potential government partners then they need to start telling us pretty soon what exactly their ideas are (beyond deporting forunns). Farage's own personal statements have revealed an ultra-Thatcherite tendency which will not play out well if realised in firm policies.

 

[thehistorymakers]

I don't think you can belittle the support. However, and I think this has been said several times, there are vast swathes of the voting population who wouldn't touch them with a ten foot bargepole. You are either a UKIP supporter or take an "anybody but UKIP" view from what I can see. That 19% is probably as good as it will ever get for them.

19% is over half the vote of the Tories or Labour.

 

[Tredman]

19% is over half the vote of the Tories or Labour.

And if replicated in every constituency would lead to precisely zero MPs

It also means that 81% of the UK are not idiots, I'll take that.

 

[thehistorymakers]

The problem is, that many people are blaming immigration for the lowering of their living standards, their finding it more difficult to find work, the increase in rent in the private sector, for waiting lists at hospitals and the general decline in their living standards in the UK.
They don't trust the Conservative party or Labour on immigration. They talk a lot , but don't do much.
Of course UKIP are a two policy party. They won't win the elections, but there is a distinct possibility that they could join forces with the Tory party then immigration and Europe would be right up there in UKIP's bargaining power, to let the Conservative party form a government.

 

[thehistorymakers]

And if replicated in every constituency would lead to precisely zero MPs

It also means that 81% of the UK are not idiots, I'll take that.

So it's ok for the Liberal Democrtats with under half the percentage of votes as UKIP , being able to be part of a government?
I believe that the average Tory voter has more empathy to UKIP, than they do the Liberal Democrats.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Therein lies the problem with the Lib Dems getting into bed with the Tories. People who naturally gravitate to the former are invariably diametrically opposed to the latter. How to chuck away 20+ years of steady progress overnight as they've disenchanted virtually everyone now. Their traditional ideas of social democracy are quite close to mine but there is no chance of me voting for them next year.