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Coronavirus

I worry about how much transmission would occur with an app and how much asymptomatic people would infect others
 
Papper said:
Anything that is associated with Blair can fuck right off. Nobody is monitoring me. The mental health implications and the long term distrust it will create amongst people makes me uneasy. It will create lepers in our society.
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If you can't put aside political allegiance to save 100s of thousands of lives then I can't really help you, I think it best that you find someone else to talk to if you're looking for an argument, I made assurances to a couple of people that I would try to refrain from that
 
Papper said:
By your logic nobody should have an opinion unless they are in disease control or an epidemiologist. I am making observations and understand enough about data sets to give an opinion.
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That isn't the point I was making. You had absolute certainty that the data is flawed and I wondered how you could come to that opinion without any sort of background in data collection or knowledge of virus spread.

I take data as data, it is how it is interpreted and read that is the bit you can have an opinion on isn't it?
 
Johnny75 said:
That isn't the point I was making. You had absolute certainty that the data is flawed and I wondered how you could come to that opinion without any sort of background in data collection or knowledge of virus spread.

I take data as data, it is how it is interpreted and read that is the bit you can have an opinion on isn't it?
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So essentially which experts are right and which are wrong and how have you come to that decision?
 
Rui_CostCo said:
If you can't put aside political allegiance to save 100s of thousands of lives then I can't really help you, I think it best that you find someone else to talk to if you're looking for an argument, I made assurances to a couple of people that I would try to refrain from that
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I am apolitical, don't like any of them - merely trying to point out that the fallout from lockdown will be far worse than the virus when we all tend to agree that 80% of the population have mild symptoms or are in fact asymptomatic. Maybe just maybe we focus on the 20% eh. I am sure the app will be a great success but totally agree with you that differing opinions and the various persuasions tend to go round in circles. Time will tell Rui.
 
AndyWolves said:
I worry about how much transmission would occur with an app and how much asymptomatic people would infect others
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If it is offered to me I will use the app and update it as required. Put aside the asymptomatic folk, that doesn't really matter - and I have great faith that this app will filter out those who have symptoms that resemble it but are not positive for Covid-19. Air-con sometimes gives me a dry cough - should I report that on the app?
 
Papper said:
If it is offered to me I will use the app and update it as required. Put aside the asymptomatic folk, that doesn't really matter - and I have great faith that this app will filter out those who have symptoms that resemble it but are not positive for Covid-19. Air-con sometimes gives me a dry cough - should I report that on the app?
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I've seen reports of 20% (some much higher) of infected people are asymptomatic. That, to me, presents a big risk of causing major amounts of infection

Like you say, we need antibody tests and some real data to truly understand any decisions that are made
 
AndyWolves said:
I've seen reports of 20% (some much higher) of infected people are asymptomatic. That, to me, presents a big risk of causing major amounts of infection

Like you say, we need antibody tests and some real data to truly understand any decisions that are made
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Don't you think we have real data now?

Surely we have to work with what we have to date and not dismiss it on what we think is happening, that would be madness and basing the science on opinion.

I agree with you on the antibody tests and these things clearly take time.
 
Johnny75 said:
Don't you think we have real data now?

Surely we have to work with what we have to date and not dismiss it on what we think is happening, that would be madness and basing the science on opinion.

I agree with you on the antibody tests and these things clearly take time.
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No, I don't think we know how far this virus has spread and I don't think we know what the R0 number actually is. We still don't really know what the actual case fatality ratio is. The only numbers we really have are hospital admissions and other data around treatment of the virus.

I'm all for progress in a pragmatic way and an app could be that. I do worry though that the lead time between being infectious and getting symptoms allows folk to spread the virus to many, many people who can then spread it again and again until the first person gets their test results back. That's why knowing things like how contagious this virus is are so important.

I guess though the app would be introduced when new cases have decreased significantly so any sudden spikes would be noticed

However, I'm a pleb and someone cleverer than me has probably already considered this
 
"On March 2, the United States reached 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Three weeks later, the country had 34,000 cases, over 400 deaths, and was rocketing toward a massive, uncontrolled epidemic that has, so far, taken the lives of over 16,000 Americans. But three weeks after New Zealand hit 100 cases of COVID-19, there are only 1,200 cases and just one single death attributed to the disease. More than that, New Zealand has already turned its very short curve, with a steady decrease in cases over the last week.

This isn’t simply a matter of population. With far less than 1% of residents infected, the novel coronavirus isn’t close to reaching its limits anywhere, and nations of a similar size have thousands more cases and hundreds of more deaths. It’s not even a factor of density, with nearly half of New Zealand’s population found in a single city. The difference is one of resolve, insight, and competence. The difference is leadership."

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1936089/-This-is-what-a-really-good-job-and-real-leadership-looks-like
 
So Boris out of hospital (its an EASTER MIRACLE)...back to Downing Street to carry on his recovery and lockdown. Well he did go back to Downing Street, now he is moving on to Chequers and Carrie making the journey as well.

Personally, I don't give a crap and only really posted this as Paul hasn't been able to moan at political stuff on this thread for a few hours but all the people stopped and fined for going to their 2nd homes over the last 3 weeks are now going mental at this breaking news
 
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