Coronavirus

[Dublin Drummer Wolf]

Our holiday to Tenerife at the end of April has been cancelled.

I'm gutted but I get it.

 

[pr0sl0]

It all doesn’t add up. Someone is withholding info somewhere, or releasing incorrect info.

The death rate was/is apparently minor, and is only affecting the vulnerable. So in which case, it isn’t much to worry about as a population. Yes there will be some unavoidable loss of life, but generally speaking we will be ok.

They are also saying China are over the worst of it after a couple of months with a minimal isolation period.

However I have friends who are Dr’s saying ITU is oversubscribed already, including people in the 30-50 age range, and that they are understaffed and running out of equipment. Now this doesn’t correlate with the “most will be ok” narrative. It also doesn’t correlate with the herd immunity method, and certainly doesn’t suggest 2 weeks isolation will be fine. Particularly when they are saying 12 weeks.

It all doesn’t make sense, and the science isn’t adding up. And I can’t find the science to make my own educated opinion. It’s all guess work.

The information and rates can be confusing, as can some of the terminology. For example, "mild" symptoms. Every health agency has its own version of what this means - and the WHO, confusingly, was using "mild" early on to include cases which require medical intervention in hospitals. Furthermore, the kinds of scaling we're looking at with only a "minor" mortality rate are unintuitive, yet still lead to inevitably terrible conclusions.

You really don't need a large increase in new admissions requiring intensive care to cause huge knock-on effects in the system in ways that can make "milder" symptoms more dangerous. Healthcare systems just don't have a lot of slack in them - they're generally planned to be able to handle the peak of the winter flu season at worst, and that's not even accounting for how a decade of cuts has meant that the summer NHS in 2019 looked like a bad winter in 2010. Doctors and nurses become sick during a pandemic too, meaning you end up inevitably short-staffed. And with worldwide demands for specific materials, it breaks up supply chains for items that would normally be available on tap.

"Flatten the curve" sounds really simplistic, but it does kind of sum everything up - a death rate around 1% isn't something to sniff at in a population of 65 million. It does all feel rather strange right now. It reminds me of the Millennium Bug in a lot of ways, because the measures required to mitigate the problem are so extreme, but if they work they'll feel like massive overkill.

 

[arklowolf]

Our holiday to Tenerife at the end of April has been cancelled.

I'm gutted but I get it.

That is a shame, I suppose we are all going to lose out on things we would previously have taken for granted. Wife bought us a couple of things for Christmas that we are going to lose now, had tickets for The Who tomorrow and a couple of nights in a hotel later in the month. Small price to pay compared to some though I suppose.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

"Flatten the curve" sounds really simplistic, but it does kind of sum everything up - a death rate around 1% isn't something to sniff at in a population of 65 million. It does all feel rather strange right now. It reminds me of the Millennium Bug in a lot of ways, because the measures required to mitigate the problem are so extreme, but if they work they'll feel like massive overkill.

Y2K and the non-event that it was...it was a non-event because literally years of planning and safeguards had been put in place.

The shambles that has been the last ten years and then this lands, no wonder we're fucked.

This is where Fat Al's strategy of only ever hiring people who agree with him falls down. What happens when you need action, you don't know what to do but nor does anyone else in any position of power because they're either morons, terminally lightweight or both?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

The government is scrambling to piece together a design for a British-made medical ventilator “from scratch” to help treat severe coronavirus cases in the UK, even as businesses warned that it was unrealistic to ask companies to build an entirely new model.
In a telephone conference with the heads of big engineering companies on Monday evening, Boris Johnson, the prime minister, called for more than 20,000 ventilators to be made within two weeks, according to two executives with knowledge of the discussion.
However, bosses have warned that they need a licensed design before they can start the manufacturing process. “We can’t make one up,” one executive said. “We can produce a licensed design, but not a wholly new one,” he said. “We have more than enough capacity to help but we need a design that is certified.”

Apparently the fat prat was cracking (rubbish) jokes as well during the call. Christ.

 

[UKYankieWWFC]

Our holiday to Tenerife at the end of April has been cancelled.

I'm gutted but I get it.

Likewise our trip was scheduled for next week.
We did a thrifty Christmas too, not only the wife and myself But the kids too
Hopefully we'll be back towards the back-end of the summer perhaps

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

https://twitter.com/GoughCJ/status/1239587299136098305

Thread from a doctor on his experiences as a sufferer.

The illness I had in January was really bad for fatigue symptoms. Like I couldn't get through a day without sleeping for hours at weird times, constantly fatigued. Maybe I did have it after all? But no real breathing difficulties which you'd think I'd get as an asthmatic, albeit I doubt I've taken an inhaler at all in the last four years or so, it's as good as dormant I think/hope (had it very bad when I was a kid and my anaphylaxis causes me serious respiratory problems if that ever hits).

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

+14 deaths in the latest figures.

Think we were on 11 deaths in total on Friday, it's 69 now.

 

[Tredman]

Not as big a jump as previous days I think? Small comfort I guess.

 

[PuntsWolf]

For eight out of ten people the prognosis is excellent. Yes a few shitty days but we'll get over it. People need to stop being selfish, seeking attention and concentrate on those who are truly at risk and the incredible people on the front line who are there for them. Moaning about theatres, cinemas and pubs closing is low form if you ask me.

Well yes, that’s what we’ve been hearing from the start. We are seeing footballers testing positive saying they feel absolutely fine. I’m not particularly worried, I work with the upper respiratory tract every day, if anyone’s going to get it, it’s me. My pregnant wife is less relaxed about things and she has now gone on maternity leave a couple of weeks early after yesterday’s info.

The information and rates can be confusing, as can some of the terminology. For example, "mild" symptoms. Every health agency has its own version of what this means - and the WHO, confusingly, was using "mild" early on to include cases which require medical intervention in hospitals. Furthermore, the kinds of scaling we're looking at with only a "minor" mortality rate are unintuitive, yet still lead to inevitably terrible conclusions.

You really don't need a large increase in new admissions requiring intensive care to cause huge knock-on effects in the system in ways that can make "milder" symptoms more dangerous. Healthcare systems just don't have a lot of slack in them - they're generally planned to be able to handle the peak of the winter flu season at worst, and that's not even accounting for how a decade of cuts has meant that the summer NHS in 2019 looked like a bad winter in 2010. Doctors and nurses become sick during a pandemic too, meaning you end up inevitably short-staffed. And with worldwide demands for specific materials, it breaks up supply chains for items that would normally be available on tap.

"Flatten the curve" sounds really simplistic, but it does kind of sum everything up - a death rate around 1% isn't something to sniff at in a population of 65 million. It does all feel rather strange right now. It reminds me of the Millennium Bug in a lot of ways, because the measures required to mitigate the problem are so extreme, but if they work they'll feel like massive overkill.

Well exactly, mild symptoms can not be hospital treatment. Mild symptoms is “I’m a bit tired and bunged up but I’m alright”. If a decent percentage of people need hospital treatment then that is a massive issue for the reasons you describe.

 

[pr0sl0]

Does seem to be the case that one assumption from the original modelling - that the actual mortality rate is probably more in the 0.6-1.0% range rather than 2-3% as had originally been thought in China - is correct. Mass tests in Italy over the weekend have found that as many as 75% of carriers are completely asymptomatic. Would also indicate that it could well have spread from China earlier than originally thought.

 

[SLA]

Oh, they fucking love the war talk, don't they?

 

[leedswolf]

From Thursday anyone arriving in Guernsey from anywhere in the world (including the UK and Jersey) will have to go into 14 day self-isolation. Currently in Jersey only those travelling from Europe, Eurasia and parts of Asia are to go into 14 day self-isolation.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

£330bn in loans available to businesses and more later if required.

 

[Johnny75]

Apparently the fat prat was cracking (rubbish) jokes as well during the call. Christ.

I'd doubt the veracity of that conversation. If true the 'bosses' (whoever they are) don't know their arses from their elbows. It could be done easily in two weeks.

 

[Tredman]

Can we have Sunak as prime minister instead?

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Still nothing on the self-employed though, so I'm still fucked.

Sunak is a very good speaker indeed.

 

[Tredman]

I'd doubt the veracity of that conversation. If true the 'bosses' (whoever they are) don't know their arses from their elbows. It could be done easily in two weeks.

Retooling a production line from engines to ventilators for example? That not easy by any means whatsoever.

 

[Tredman]

Still nothing on the self-employed though, so I'm still fucked.

Sunak is a very good speaker indeed.

Yes, I was expecting something on that.

 

[Johnny75]

£330bn in loans available to businesses and more later if required.

3 months rent free here in staffs too. The government are a little slow but they're not doing as terrible a job as this board would have you believe.