Coronavirus

[AndyWolves]

If 70% of the UK got it, that's 49 million people. At a 3% death rate that's 1.5 million dead.

All those people saying its no biggie are talking nonsense.

With an overwhelmed healthcare infrastructure the death rate will be much higher

Along with all the other deaths than can't be prevented by health care as they normally would

 

[Tredman]

 

[Keef]

First confirmed case in Wolverhampton,no other details

 

[Lupo]

First confirmed case in Wolverhampton,no other details

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/first-positive-case-coronavirus-confirmed-17885721

 

[Lupo]

I have seen a lot about the lockdown in Northern Italy (particularly Lombardy) and the fact that the news leaked before any official announcements leading to huge exodus of people heading back to their home regions while they still could, this could effect the so far largely unaffected southern regions where my family are so as an exercise in containment it is looking pretty shit so far

 

[Alan]

Up to 70% of the population here expected to contract C19, (1.9 million).

How in the world have they come up with that number when we don't even understand fully how it spreads?

 

[arklowolf]

How in the world have they come up with that number when we don't even understand fully how it spreads?

Dunno. Health Service Executive refusing to deny that's what the % could be.

 

[Tredman]

How in the world have they come up with that number when we don't even understand fully how it spreads?

There’s loads of data about the spread and speed of transmission now in western counties, based on Italy. Our world in data published a big data set this morning.

 

[arklowolf]

There’s loads of data about the spread and speed of transmission now in western counties, based on Italy. Our world in data published a big data set this morning.

Whst do you personally read into it. I'm clueless and don't know what to believe at this stage.

 

[Tredman]

Whst do you personally read into it. I'm clueless and don't know what to believe at this stage.

Like Klopp I’m not in a correct place to comment. This curve looks very ominous though

 

[jdrodrigues]

Like Klopp I’m not in a correct place to comment. This curve looks very ominous though

Like with any easy-to-spread disease, my common sense says that curve is relatively normal. If we take China as an example, it spread a lot and has now started to slow down a lot (in comparison). I expect to see something similar here in Europe. Things will get a lot worse before they get better, and then it will be as if nothing happened at all.

 

[Sniffer]

A school in Tamworth is closed after a teacher tested positive. One of their pupils was at my youngest’s birthday party last weekend. Brings it all close to home.

 

[Tredman]

Like with any easy-to-spread disease, my common sense says that curve is relatively normal. If we take China as an example, it spread a lot and has now started to slow down a lot (in comparison). I expect to see something similar here in Europe. Things will get a lot worse before they get better, and then it will be as if nothing happened at all.

133 more dead in Italy today alone. That chart will now look very different.

 

[AndyWolves]

Like with any easy-to-spread disease, my common sense says that curve is relatively normal. If we take China as an example, it spread a lot and has now started to slow down a lot (in comparison). I expect to see something similar here in Europe. Things will get a lot worse before they get better, and then it will be as if nothing happened at all.

China did stuff though, like locking down cities and building 14 hospitals.

This is the level of response required

 

[jdrodrigues]

133 more dead in Italy today alone. That chart will now look very different.

Statistical, and please correct me if I'm wrong, 133 deaths should not affect the worldwide data strongly.

From the graphical data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - this seems to be the trend, with deaths increasing at a steady rate.

But in China it seemed to have decelerated a lot. Judging from this data, we should expect a steady increase in both cases and deaths, without sudden high peaks. But I am not a professional of health or statistical data, I'm just using my common sense, so someone with experience in dealing with any of the two may correct me and I'll abide by them.

Just running opinions here

China did stuff though, like locking down cities and building 14 hospitals.

This is the level of response required

For sure, but the initial outbreak was also enormous, quite unlike what we've had in any European country. Plus, we should not compare responses of governments to those of China, their resources are so differnet, given the politicsand infrastructure in place. It is unreasonable to expect European Countries to build hospitals in 6 days.

 

[Tredman]

Statistical, and please correct me if I'm wrong, 133 deaths should not affect the worldwide data strongly.

From the graphical data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - this seems to be the trend, with deaths increasing at a steady rate.

But in China it seemed to have decelerated a lot. Judging from this data, we should expect a steady increase in both cases and deaths, without sudden high peaks. But I am not a professional of health or statistical data, I'm just using my common sense, so someone with experience in dealing with any of the two may correct me and I'll abide by them.

Just running opinions here

?? The chart above was Italy alone.

 

[arklowolf]

A school in Tamworth is closed after a teacher tested positive. One of their pupils was at my youngest’s birthday party last weekend. Brings it all close to home.

Just Googled it - St. Gabriels junior. A lot of my nephews and nieces and their kids went there, but I think most if not all are now at senior school and one is too young for school yet.
Supposedly 3 cases here in Arklow, inc. a doctor and a solicitor.
But rumours are flying around so don't know what to believe tbh.

 

[jdrodrigues]

?? The chart above was Italy alone.

Im talking about worldwide. Sorry for not making it clearer.

 

[Tredman]

Im talking about worldwide. Sorry for not making it clearer.

Then we were at cross purposes.

This is a good site to see the worldwide trend:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

China definitely seems to have stabilised, I’m not sure the methods used in China can be replicated elsewhere though.

 

[visage]

Then we were at cross purposes.

This is a good site to see the worldwide trend:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

China definitely seems to have stabilised, I’m not sure the methods used in China can be replicated elsewhere though.

I'm also wary of extrapolating from data provided by the Chinese government. They're not exactly open.