Trump

[Del Woppio]

I can't understand what the others are seeing either. I see Harris winning, not really but winning well enough.

It's the swing state polling for me. It has Trump being the campaign with momentum - either closing the gap to or extending his lead in all 7

 

[Tony Towner]

Yeah, Brexit, good example.

Yeah, that was people with their head in the sand though, although I'm not going to go there again

 

[Wolftone]

Yeah, that was people with their head in the sand though, although I'm not going to go there again

I'd say it was people betting and not 'reading the room'. As more bets are placed, the odds shorten and more money is lumped on. It's like a run on the banks. A self fulfilling prophecy, removed from real life.
Odds have very little to do with facts, just speculation on top of speculation and the bookmaker balancing the book. Algorithms these days obviously.

 

[Alan]

It's the swing state polling for me. It has Trump being the campaign with momentum - either closing the gap to or extending his lead in all 7

I can tell you that Trump is running ads in NC about five times as often as Harris. Which is actually a good sign for Harris; those ads don’t run in states where the campaign feels they aren’t needed. And Trump is desperate to catch up.

Kind of oxymoronic but the whole system is moronic so.

 

[EdgeOfTheAlps]

He keeps saying this, so his focus groups must be telling him it's landing, presumably with people who just want to believe it.

Also depressingly his odds continue to shorten

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848387054566072397

Transgender lies aside....how voters can listen to him stating that they don't need a department of education, just one person to make sure they teach English and think he's the right man for anything other than a bullet to the back of the head is astounding.

 

[Jolemai]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849446724470755763

 

[Tony Towner]

If he wins the popular vote, then he strolls the college

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849806868266287350

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

All the polls are within the margin of error so it could happen. it wont though.

 

[Del Woppio]

"it won't though" is nonsense tbf. It's literally so close that just tens of thousands of votes will make the difference between basically any possible combination of results

 

[darlowolf64]

"it won't though" is nonsense tbf. It's literally so close that just tens of thousands of votes will make the difference between basically any possible combination of results

Hopefully it's the same kind of "tens of thousands" that gave Labour a landslide because Trump is dangerous

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I think a lot of the democratic media are underplaying Harris as they think they need their vote out. Trouble is, they will win by absolute millions in California and a big chunk of those votes will be effectively wasted. And the Republicans will no doubt take Texas by a similarly large and wasteful margin. As always, American elections depend on a few thousand votes in a few swing states.